Inquirer Editorial: Polls reveal the limits of Trump's appeal

Within the rapt, chanting confines of a Donald Trump rally, where the rare dissident risks a pummeling, the movement behind the reality television star must seem large and powerful. Indeed, it's clear by now that Trump's hostility to facts and foreigners appeals to a lot of Americans, more than 7.5 million of whom have voted for him.

But while such considerations as truth and tolerance have been no barrier to Trumpism, its limited nationwide appeal is likely to be.

This week, after winning primaries in four more states, Trump declared, "We have to bring our party together." This was not just one more improbably ironic statement by a man whose candidacy has thrived on a fractured party and relentlessly exploited national and global divides. It was also an acknowledgment of an obstacle that Trump is far from overcoming.

Even in his latest victories, Trump's electoral escalator stopped at around 40 percent of the Republican vote in all but his second-home state of Florida. More than a quarter of the Republicans who voted Tuesday told an NBC exit poll that they would not vote for Trump even if he becomes the party's nominee, and more than a third said they would consider supporting a third-party candidate. Meanwhile, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich are still running for the nomination, aiming to deny Trump an outright majority of delegates and thereby put the decision to the party's national convention in July - a prospect that had Trump, true to form, promising riots.

If Trump does secure the nomination, whether by threats of mass violence or more conventional means, polls indicate that it would be a boon to the likely Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton. While RealClearPolitics' average of national polls puts Kasich ahead of Clinton and has Cruz effectively tied with her, Trump is 6 percentage points behind the former secretary of state. And the trend is in Clinton's favor: The most recent polls give her a double-digit lead over the developer.

Clinton is of course a legendarily divisive candidate - thoroughly known to American voters and disliked by a narrow majority: 53 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her, according to RCP's average. But Trump alone among the Republicans is worse on this score, viewed unfavorably by an impressive 61 percent.

Sure, Trump's campaign has proven that making political predictions is about as wise as wagering at - or investing in - one of his Atlantic City casinos. But pragmatism as well as principles should have Republicans looking for an alternative if their goal is that oft-stated Trumpian imperative: winning.