Clinton v. Trump: As spectacle, the bar for their debate is set high

Considering the buildup on television, the first presidential debate of the general election sounds as if it will be a cross between the moon landing and the Rumble in the Jungle, the epic 1974 heavyweight fight between Muhammad Ali and George Foreman.

Monday's 90-minute faceoff at Hofstra University on Long Island between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump is projected to draw as many as 100 million viewers, which would make it the biggest audience ever for the quadrennial high-stakes political drama.

The record was set in 1980, when 80 million people tuned in to the single debate between President Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. Only a tight Super Bowl game would draw more.

But there has never been a candidate quite like Trump, the real estate developer and reality-TV celebrity with the slashing style and nationalist message. He knows how to put on a show, and recent polling puts him within striking distance of defeating the former secretary of state, first lady, and senator from one of America's political dynasties.

Trump, who bested 16 other contenders for the GOP nomination, has never been in a one-on-one debate, though he's a natural in the television medium. Clinton has decades of expertise in government policy, yet she can be an awkward campaigner.

Political strategists are fond of saying that you can't win a presidential race with a debate performance, but you can hurt yourself and maybe even lose one.

The biggest risk for Clinton and Trump in the debate is a moment or general impression that reinforces the misgivings voters already might have about the two most negatively viewed nominees since polling began.

For Clinton, analysts said, that might be something that confirms what polling shows is a majority view, that she is untruthful. And for Trump, the challenge is to show a calm temperament that will make viewers comfortable with the idea of him as president, according to political strategists.

If political science is any guide, it is unlikely that a single debate, or even all three, will prove decisive in 2016.

In one sense, Clinton starts with a disadvantage, the perception that she is a good debater with an impressive resumé for the Oval Office. A CNN/ORC poll earlier this month, for instance, found that 53 percent believe she will do the better job in the debate, while 43 said the same of Trump.

Expectations are powerful, and the mismatch in experience has had Clinton's advisers arguing in recent days that Trump should not be graded on a curve by the media; he should have to clear the same high bar, they said.

"People accommodate the questions and lower the bar on their questions to suit the candidate in front of them, and that's what's happened with Trump in the past. And they ask Hillary Clinton a set of much harder questions," said Jennifer Palmieri, communications director for Clinton's campaign. "They ask him a set of easier questions because he has not put forward detailed . . . material you can parry him on."

The campaign and many supporters believe that Clinton was treated unfairly in a recent NBC News town hall, when Matt Lauer grilled her on her use of a private email server as secretary of state. Trump, they believe, was given easier questions and not challenged on several misstatements.

Aside from character and temperament, Clinton faces the question of whether a stalwart of the establishment is capable of bringing the kind of change unsettled voters seem to want, and Trump has to show that he has the depth of knowledge on issues to be seen as a credible president.

"That's the million-dollar question," said Republican strategist Charlie Gerow, who has coached dozens of candidates through debates, including businesswoman Carly Fiorina during this year's primaries.

"Trump is going to try to free-wheel it - he has said he thinks you can be overprepared," Gerow said. "He's right about that. And you can also be underprepared."

Team Trump has said he has not been preparing bigly, as he would put it, meeting on Sundays at his Bedminster, N.J., golf club with close advisers to discuss themes. He has not delved into thick briefing books, they say, and has stayed on the campaign trail.

Clinton has been taking some time off the trail in recent days to prepare for the encounter. She has been viewing film from Trump's primary debate performances, and even consulted with the author of a critical biography of the mogul on attack lines that might get under his skin.

In this situation, each candidate's strength could become a weakness, Gerow said, both Trump's charisma and plainspoken manner and Clinton's policy fluency.

"If she becomes condescending or lectures him about some nuance or detail of foreign policy, that's going to boomerang right in her face," Gerow said. "Hillary's experience and knowledge are not as much an advantage in a change election like this. As we have seen, constantly rolling out her resumé is not really helping her."

And Trump should probably sheathe the insults and wisecracks that worked well for him in the primaries, said Alan Schroeder, a journalism professor and scholar of presidential debates at Northeastern University in Boston.

"There's a gender dynamic at work," Schroeder said. "Does he go there with the 'Crooked Hillary' thing? . . . His trademark has been ad hominem attacks; I'm not sure that works at this level."

Each candidate will have to surmount conflicting goals inherent in appealing to the small slice of undecided voters.

"It's hard because you have to please your supporters. You're seeking to reinforce what the voters like about you, get your base excited," Schroeder said. "How do you square that with convincing people who are on the fence?"

Thus, Trump needs to play to those who have loved his bluntness without scaring off moderates like those in the Philadelphia suburbs. Clinton has to balance reaching out to elements of the Democratic base that have been cool to her, such as millennials (as polls suggest) while seeking to peel moderate Republican voters away from Trump.

Generally speaking, the polls usually move at least a couple of points in one direction or the other after the first presidential debate, but the effect does not necessarily last, according to analysis of historic polling data. It is even harder to isolate the effects of a debate or even several debates on voting decisions.

Even the 1980 tilt, when Reagan memorably asked, "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" - which is often credited with sealing the election for him - may not have been decisive. Even though it happened a week before Election Day, polls showed that Reagan was already leading by the time the debate happened.

"What typically happens is, even if there is a bounce, it's short-lived," Schroeder said. "Debates don't happen in a vacuum. . . . The problem is that by the time you vote, debates are just part of what factored into that decision. You can't tease the debates out from other events in the campaign to find cause and effect."

tfitzgerald@phillynews.com

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