Tuesday's Acela primaries could be decisive
The Acela Primary could put two presidential candidates on the fast track to the general-election campaign. Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Connecticut, and Rhode Island are linked by the rail line that carries that high-speed train from Washington to Boston. And voters in the five states also share the chance to influence the Democratic and Republican presidential races at a crucial moment.
The Acela Primary could put two presidential candidates on the fast track to the general-election campaign.
Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Connecticut, and Rhode Island are linked by the rail line that carries that high-speed train from Washington to Boston. And voters in the five states also share the chance to influence the Democratic and Republican presidential races at a crucial moment.
By the time all the votes cast in polling places from Salisbury, Md., to Woonsocket, R.I., are counted Tuesday, the parties' nominees may be, for all intents and purposes, determined.
A decisive set of wins for Hillary Clinton would slam the door on insurgent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, making it clear that he cannot overcome her lead in pledged convention delegates, even though few Democrats expect him to formally concede before the last votes in June.
"Next week is a big week," Tad Devine, senior strategist for Sanders' campaign, told reporters last week, referring to the Acela Primary. "We'll see how we do there and then we'll be able to sit back and assess where we are."
Clinton is favored in all five contests, with Rhode Island seen as Sanders' best shot at an upset.
Republicans desperate to stop developer Donald Trump's takeover of their party are doing some calculations of their own. If Trump sweeps the five states, as the polls seem to indicate, he could still have a chance to clinch the GOP nomination without a floor fight in Cleveland.
If the voters lift Texas Sen. Ted Cruz or Ohio Gov. John Kasich, the odds increase that the party will have an old-school convention, with delegates picking the winner after deliberations and deals.
And given Pennsylvania's quirky rules, 54 men and women from the state could have a disproportionate say.
'A patchwork'
Republican primary voters may think they're picking Trump, Cruz, or Kasich, but that's only part of it: 17 delegates are awarded to the one who gets the most votes statewide. Voters must select the rest, three in each of the state's 18 congressional districts, from among familiar and unfamiliar names on the ballot. They are officially unbound, and thus up for grabs.
All three Republicans have been campaigning in Pennsylvania, but they are being pulled in four other directions as well. And more: Cruz, who was crushed in New York's vote, has spent serious time in Indiana, which holds a May 3 primary, as has Trump. Indiana has a higher percentage of evangelical Christians in its GOP electorate than the Acela states have, pollsters say.
Trump has been overhauling his campaign structure in between trips to Pennsylvania and the other states.
Spending for broadcast advertising is relatively modest compared with previous statewide elections. Among the Republicans, Trump has laid out the most at $1.3 million. Cruz has spent $561,000. Kasich is depending on expenditures from two super PACs.
Sanders has outspent Clinton for airtime in Pennsylvania - a little more than $4 million to $2.5 million.
By comparison, campaigns and outside groups have spent about $10 million in the state's competitive Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.
"The campaigning hasn't been as intense as I would have thought," said former Republican Rep. Phil English, of Erie, who had been supporting Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who dropped out of the race long ago.
Still, English said he was picking up high interest on the part of GOP voters and "deep divisions" in the party over its future course.
"It's a patchwork," said English, a lawyer who is running for delegate in his old Third District. "The Trump campaign is still generating the most energy and turnout for events in the state, but Kasich has made significant progress in last few weeks. Cruz has a resilient network and put some elegance into his field operation."
Many delegate candidates say they will support the presidential candidate chosen by their district's voters - at least on the first ballot. Some are pledged to one candidate or another. Yet those elected Tuesday are free to do what they want in Cleveland.
English is undeclared; he said he would consider what the voters say, along with his judgment of who is most electable.
"Many voters don't understand why delegates aren't automatically allocated," English said. "I particularly hear from Trump voters who posit some sort of cabal trying to block him."
He's not part of it if there is one, English said.
In Delaware, the only recent public poll shows Trump way out front. He does seem to be leading, operatives say, in a state with a long tradition of moderate Republicans but a more recent history of backing insurgents, such as tea party candidate Christine O'Donnell, who beat a longtime congressman in the GOP Senate primary in 2010.
Kasich's campaign and a super PAC backing him are focusing efforts on northern Delaware, "where you've got a lot of transplants from New York and New Jersey," while Trump and Cruz have backing in the more conservative south, said John Fluharty, a GOP consultant who is former executive director of the state party.
The Northeast Acela states have been known for giants of the GOP center. Think former Sens. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, Lowell Weicker of Connecticut, and Delaware's William Roth. Could the same region get behind the authoritarian Trump, who wants to deport 11 million undocumented immigrants, build a border wall to keep out Mexican "rapists," and proposes a temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States?
It seems incongruous but makes sense, said pollster Patrick Murray of New Jersey's Monmouth University. Many of Trump's positions are downright liberal for today's GOP, one reason many conservatives oppose him. He does not want to cut Social Security benefits to help balance the budget, for instance, and has favored single-payer health care in the past. He has little history of backing social-conservative causes.
Though there are demographic distinctions, the states have a similar voting pattern, said Murray, who has polled Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Connecticut.
'Bigger concern'
"When it comes to national issues, they're significantly less conservative than they are on the state level, which is why Republican governors can be elected in the Northeast," Murray said. "They're not sending a lot of Republicans to Washington."
Ironically, some of the disaffected voters flocking to Trump use "Acela corridor" as derisive shorthand for political and cultural elites on the East Coast.
David W. Patti, president of the Harrisburg-based Pennsylvania Business Council, said most political insiders in the state figure the general election will be Clinton vs. Trump. Both of them are viewed negatively by a majority of voters.
"People have believed the country is on the wrong track for a long time now," Patti said. "That's my bigger concern: How do we govern? How can we even have a conversation about issues like immigration after some of the rhetoric we've had?"
He said: "America is going to need a year on the couch after this."
215-854-2718@tomfitzgerald