Vacation over, Obama loses some momentum

For the last week, Sen. Barack Obama seemed to evaporate from the presidential race as he vacationed in Hawaii, his days filled with "shave ice" treats, golf, body surfing, and walks on the beach instead of political combat.

Now, Obama plunges back into the campaign at a pivotal moment, with the Democratic convention a week away and the announcement of his vice presidential nominee expected any day. The selection process has been free of serious leaks, just the way "No Drama" Obama likes it, but Democratic strategists hope that whomever he picks will help him get his mojo back.

Since returning from his triumphal tour of Afghanistan, Iraq and Europe, Obama has been thrown on the defensive, and Republican Sen. John McCain has crept closer in national and battleground-state polls.

Before, Obama was surging and dominated the race's narrative. Many analysts thought McCain was a long shot, considering his campaign's stumbles, the sagging economy, the GOP's unpopularity, and Obama's advantages of money and magnetism.

"All the generic ballot questions in the polls show voters want a Democratic president. The problem is they're not sure they want Obama," said Peter A. Brown, an independent pollster at Quinnipiac University in Connecticut. "He hasn't closed the sale. Every historical fact says he should be farther ahead than he is."

McCain gained traction on the energy crisis with his call to "drill here, drill now"; expand the use of nuclear power; and develop alternative fuels. He also hammered Obama as "the biggest celebrity in the world" - aloof, presumptuous, and incapable of relating to average Americans.

Using images of 200,000 chanting Berliners from the world tour, McCain's campaign cut one ad that compared Obama to Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. Another piece, for the Internet, tagged Obama as "the One," using video of Charlton Heston playing Moses in the The Ten Commandments. And while Obama vacationed last week, McCain talked tough on the Russian invasion of Georgia, hoping to demonstrate his experience in world affairs.

"Obama lost the summer, and part of it was he got arrogant and overreached. He started talking about transition planning and going to all these red states, like Montana, where he has no chance," Washington GOP strategist John Feehery said.

"I think the tipping point was Berlin," Feehery said. "A lot of Americans were left scratching their heads, thinking, 'Why isn't he talking to me?' "

McCain's new tack - a contrast to his earlier pledges to run a "respectful campaign" - resulted after he shook up his campaign organization, bringing in Karl Rove protege Steve Schmidt and seasoned veterans of other presidential campaigns to focus the message. A new, more disciplined McCain no longer conducts a rolling salon with reporters in the back of his bus, and his events are more tightly controlled.

"If he wants to win, McCain has no choice but to go negative on Obama," Brown said. "This election is about Obama," and polls show him with a high favorability rating. "Who's not for change and unity?"

August has been a cruel month for previous Democratic candidates, as they shrugged off Republican attacks that sank in and then sank their campaigns.

In 1988, Michael Dukakis had a 17-point lead in the polls as summer came to a close, and he did not respond forcefully to criticism that he was soft on crime and not sufficiently patriotic. Though considered a new kind of Democrat, cerebral and cool, he was blown out by Vice President George H.W. Bush.

Four years ago, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry windsurfed in August, giving devastating footage to GOP ad makers. He also did not respond to attacks on his Vietnam War record.

Obama has greater rhetorical gifts than either of those candidates, but still, some Democrats have gotten nervous during his rough patch. Obama's campaign has fought back, quietly placing attack ads tying McCain to President Bush in some battleground states, and his strategists say most voters won't pay attention to campaign back-and-forth in earnest until after Labor Day.

The campaign is entering a three-week stretch that is packed with potential game-changing moments: the vice presidential choices, and the infomercials of the Democratic and Republican nominating conventions.

When the GOP wraps up on Sept. 4, only eight weeks will remain in the campaign, with three televised debates ahead.

Analysts and strategists say Obama needs to manage the Bill and Hillary Rodham Clinton drama at the Democratic convention. In the aftermath of their bitter primary fight, Obama agreed last week to allow Hillary Clinton's name to be placed in nomination. Depending on how the roll call unfolds, that gesture could promote party healing or spark an emotional reaction that undercuts Obama on national TV. And the former president has damned Obama with faint praise. What will he say in Denver?

Obama also needs a vice presidential pick who can reassure voters concerned about his inexperience, Brown said. Among those considered finalists are Sen. Joseph R. Biden of Delaware; Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, who also was governor there; Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine; Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island, a military veteran well-versed in foreign affairs; and Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius.

McCain, meanwhile, has to reassure the GOP base - which has often distrusted his maverick nature - while persuading independents that he is different from Bush. That imperative applies both to the convention and to McCain's choice of running mate.

Republican possibles include former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, the first secretary of homeland security; Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty; Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, the Democrat-turned-Independent; former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney; and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal.

For all the recent turbulence, the underlying dynamics of the race have not changed much, analysts said. Polls indicate that both candidates have largely locked down their party bases, and that the race should stay close unless something happens.

"The fight is for the independents, about 20 percent of the electorate," said Democratic strategist Neil Oxman, who said he believed the race would be won by 3 or 4 percentage points.

"There are liabilities on both sides," Oxman said. "For McCain, it's the ties to Bush and the desire for change. And it's Obama's age, inexperience and race. There's enough to give people pause with each of them."