Kasich win complicates Trump's road to nomination
Now the Republican presidential race settles down to some old-fashioned trench warfare.
Now the Republican presidential race settles down to some old-fashioned trench warfare.
Donald Trump won Florida in a landslide Tuesday but lost Ohio decisively - a mixed verdict that will extend the GOP contest for weeks, and encourage efforts within the party to block the polarizing front-runner from leading the national ticket.
A sweep of the first winner-take-all primaries of the campaign would have put Trump on a smooth path to securing the 1,237 delegates needed to claim the Republican nomination before the party's national convention this summer in Cleveland.
The split makes that task harder for him, increasing the chances of a contested convention.
In winning Florida and its 99 delegates, Trump knocked Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida out of the race, but Ohio Gov. John Kasich will fight on after winning his state and its 66 delegates, as will conservative Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who is second in the number of delegates won.
"Kasich doesn't have a path to the nomination, but he has the potential to play the spoiler for Trump, then bets are off at the convention," said Republican strategist Ryan Williams, who was a spokesman for 2012 nominee Mitt Romney. "Nobody has an idea what happens then; it'll be up to the delegates after the first ballot."
To be sure, Trump is in strong shape. By the end of Tuesday, he was poised to have carried nearly 20 diverse states across the country. In contrast, Ohio was Kasich's first victory of the campaign.
Trump began the day with 462 delegates, to 376 for Cruz. Rubio had 166 and Kasich 63.
Trump has to win an estimated 60 percent of all the remaining delegates up for grabs in the coming states to reach a majority, according to NBC News. Cruz must win 80 percent to have a majority, and Kasich faces the mathematically unattainable 110 percent of the remaining delegates to get the nomination at the ballot box.
Kasich's strategists believe he can do well in Pennsylvania (he was born in McKees Rocks, near Pittsburgh) and in parts of the Northeast, putting himself in a decent position if there's a scramble in an open convention.
Kasich's first stop back on the campaign trail will be at noon Wednesday at Villanova University.
Also holding primaries Tuesday were Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina - along with Ohio and Florida among the most populous states and, with the exception of Illinois, all of them usually competitive in general elections for president.
Though he's leading the remaining GOP field, Trump, with his populist reflection of voter anger at the party establishment and harsh anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim rhetoric, is also polarizing and would likely have to do some serious fence-mending if he becomes the nominee.
Exit polls found about four in 10 Republicans saying they would consider voting for a third-party candidate if the November choice were to boil down to Trump and Hillary Clinton, the Democratic front-runner. Slightly more than a quarter of GOP voters, or 27 percent, say they would not vote for Trump under any circumstances.
A group of prominent anti-Trump Republican donors who have financed a barrage of TV ads attacking the billionaire is scheduled to meet as early as Wednesday in Florida to decide what to do next. GOP officials and the campaigns are trying to figure out how a contested convention would work and strategies for winning in such an environment.
If no candidate reaches a majority of the convention delegates on the first ballot, most of the delegates would be unbound, free to vote how they wished on subsequent ballots. And the horse-trading among Trump, his remaining opponents, and party leaders would begin.
Already, campaigns are looking to influence the selection of individual delegates, most of whom are chosen after the primaries. Forty states leave the choice up to the state party organizations. The idea is to help position people who would be receptive on later ballots.
Even if it gets to that point, many are skeptical that the convention would ultimately deny Trump the top spot on the ticket after his having won so many states and delegates. It would be explosive, and the GOP would alienate millions of voters who backed Trump, many of whom are already alienated from politics if polls are any guide.
"If it does go to a convention and the establishment - card-carrying member here - pushes that, we get killed," said GOP strategist Mike Hudome, who has made ads for John McCain, among other presidential candidates. "You can't tell the voters they got it all wrong, then go reverse votes at a seemingly rigged convention."
Williams, the 2012 Romney spokesman, agreed that vanquishing Trump at the convention could bring just as many headaches as having him as the nominee.
"The way the man dominates the news cycle now, I don't think he'd relinquish that," Williams said. "If he didn't run third party, he'd be on every TV show every day complaining he was robbed and attacking the Republican nominee. He would not fade softly away."
215-854-2718
@tomfitzgerald