Analysis: In Tuesday's results from near and far, signs of a nation divided

Pennsylvania and New Jersey were blue anomalies on Tuesday night's electoral map, offering some victories for Democrats to celebrate amid the red of losses elsewhere in the country.

The party took control of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, increased its dominance of once-Republican Montgomery County, and elected Jim Kenney mayor of Philadelphia with a historic 85 percent of the vote.

And New Jersey Democrats swept to their biggest Assembly majority in nearly four decades, rebuking Republican Gov. Christie.

Political strategists and pollsters were poring over the results Wednesday, trying to divine what, if anything, they may portend for 2016.

At the very least, they portend a nation divided.

In Kentucky, businessman and tea party favorite Matt Bevin was elected governor, only the second Republican to win the state's top office since the presidency of Lyndon B. Johnson.

Bevin's open contempt for the political establishment, coupled with the deep unpopularity of President Obama in Kentucky, fueled the win, which surprised even Republicans. Bevin also championed Kim Davis, the county clerk who was jailed for refusing to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples, goosing turnout among social conservatives.

Democrats blamed that defeat on anger at political elites. The party's candidate, Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway, "ran into the unexpected headwinds of Trump-mania, losing to an outsider candidate in the Year of the Outsider," said Elizabeth Pearson, executive director of the Democratic Governors Association.

In swing state Virginia, too, Democrats failed in an expensive effort to seize control of the state Senate. They had hoped to strengthen Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe's hand in contending with a GOP-controlled lower house.

The Virginia races were in exurban Washington and suburban Richmond districts, and the GOP candidates won narrowly, thanks in part to spending by the National Rifle Association that swamped cash from gun-control groups.

If nothing else, the contrasting results from near and far illustrated the country's deep partisan divide as the parties head into a presidential year.

"Last night's victories showed Democrats cannot expand the map in 2016," said Chris Carr, political director of the Republican National Committee. "Meanwhile, Republicans showed the ability to win races in highly competitive areas of the country that have presidential implications like Virginia's 'urban crescent.' "

Democrats, however, had to look no further than Pennsylvania to see signs of increased dominance in the cities and bright prospects in nearby suburbs.

"If you're a Republican, what you have to worry about as you look to next year is the Philly suburbs and the Lehigh Valley," said veteran pollster G. Terry Madonna, noting that the Democratic Supreme Court candidates rolled up big margins in those territories.

"If you can't win there, you can't win statewide . . . unless there's a national trend in your direction," Madonna said. That's what happened in 2014, when Gov. Tom Corbett, a Republican, lost his campaign for reelection, but his party gained historic margins in the legislature.

In Montgomery County, Democrats retained control of the Board of Commissioners and won all the row offices. Commissioners Josh Shapiro and Valerie A. Arkoosh suggested that the ticket drew votes across party lines from people fed up with gridlocked government in Washington and Harrisburg.

"It's a suburban sensibility," Shapiro said. "People want to see a government that works." Arkoosh said voters rewarded Democrats as "leaders who work across party lines and use facts to guide their decision-making."

Democrats also had the money edge in the state Supreme Court race, the most expensive in U.S. history for such a court, according to the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University Law School, with total spending of just under $16 million.

"They outspent us, 5-1, my staff tells me, with a lot of outside money coming in the last few days," state Republican Chairman Rob Gleason said. "The unions and the trial lawyers saw a good opportunity - their TV buys were as big as in a governor's race, and were very effective."

An expected influx of money from Republican-leaning super PACs turned out to be "urban legend," Gleason said.

"I think money and endorsements and region were very important," said Lynn Marks, executive director of Pennsylvanians for Modern Courts.

The winners in that race, Democrats Kevin Dougherty, David Wecht, and Christine Donohue, raised a combined $8.5 million to their competitors' $3 million, for example. They received scores of endorsements from union and interest groups, which also provided millions in campaign money, and traditionally have strong get-out-the-vote operations. Dougherty is the brother of Philadelphia labor leader John "Johnny Doc" Dougherty and received the public backing of nearly all the city's prominent Democrats.

And all three candidates came from Philadelphia or Pittsburgh, Democratic strongholds and the state's biggest population centers.

Former Gov. Ed Rendell called the strong showing by Democrats statewide in the Supreme Court race a referendum on Gov. Wolf, who in his first year is still fighting with the GOP-controlled legislature over a state budget now four months overdue.

"I think Wolf is winning the P.R. war, clearly," Rendell said. "You vote with your feet. Democrats came out. Republicans didn't."

Yet even in blue-state Pennsylvania, the Republicans managed to further cement their grip on the legislature at Wolf's expense. Guy Reschenthaler defeated Democrat Heather Arnet in a special Senate election in Pittsburgh's suburbs, in a district dominated by Democrats.

Rendell called it "mystifying" that Democratic independent-expenditure groups, backed by labor unions, trial lawyers, and other political allies, outdid their GOP counterparts.

"We outspent the Republicans significantly, which I never thought would happen," he said. "It's amazing to me that the Republicans didn't bring in a lot of outside money."

Little wonder Democratic groups, at least, poured cash into those races. At stake, as every politician knows, is the map. When Pennsylvania next redraws its legislative districts to reflect the 2020 census, the final word on the boundaries belongs to the state Supreme Court.

That's one reason Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the Florida congresswoman and Democratic national chair, exulted in Pennsylvania's results. She saluted Kenney's mayoral landslide as well as the three Supreme Court winners, predicting those three Democrats "will do a remarkable job protecting the rights of Pennsylvanians, particularly ensuring a fair redistricting process."

In New Jersey, Democrats expanded their majority in the Assembly by as many as four seats. If those gains are certified, Democrats would hold a 52-28 majority, their largest since the late 1970s.

Democrats' success came amid the lowest voter turnout for a general election in state history: about 21 percent, according to Patrick Murray, a pollster at Monmouth University.

A Democratic super PAC spent millions of dollars to help its preferred candidate steal a seat from the GOP in South Jersey's First District at the Shore.

Democrats also ousted Republican incumbents in Monmouth County's 11th District, with help from attack ads funded by the super PAC General Majority - which was financed mostly by a group allied with the state's largest teachers' union.

Gov. Christie, whose job approval and favorability ratings are languishing below 40 percent among New Jersey residents, did not campaign publicly with Republicans.

Murray called Tuesday's results a "repudiation of how Chris Christie has run the state, in the sense that he's treated his own Republican caucus with an incredible amount of contempt."

tfitzgerald@phillynews.com

215-854-2718@tomfitzgerald

www.inquirer.com/bigtent

Inquirer staff writer Chris Brennan contributed to this article.