Last debate could be high-water mark of Trump surge

For the last three months, Donald Trump has sailed above the rest of the Republican presidential field like a Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade balloon fueled by bluster and insults instead of helium.

Last week's debate, though, could mark the leveling off of Trump's rise and the beginning of his deflation.

Candidates stood up to the developer and reality-TV star, landing blows instead of treading lightly as most did in the first debate in August, hoping political gravity would bring him down. It was imperative they hit. Trump's lead in the national and early-state polls had held steady despite - or maybe because of - his flame-throwing style.

In the three-hour debate Wednesday among 11 candidates at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., Trump went silent for long stretches while his rivals talked about policy details. It seemed he couldn't keep up and looked knackered at his lectern near the end.

"Other than on the issue of immigration, he was either reactive or unheard," Republican strategist Bruce Haynes said. "The curtain was pulled back and we saw the Wizard of Oz for what he was: a shallow salesman who was all sizzle but no substance."

Trump drew criticism Friday for his handling of a questioner at a campaign stop in New Hampshire who asked when the United States could "get rid of Muslims." Trump canceled an appearance in South Carolina, citing a business obligation.

Trump's demise has been predicted before, of course, so analysts are cautious, but the lackluster debate performance has many asking whether he will begin to fade as primary voters grow fatigued with the act.

There already have been signs of some Trump erosion. A recent surge of support for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, and, to a lesser extent, former tech CEO Carly Fiorina, suggests that some voters interested in an "outsider" candidate in this mistrustful era are looking for a Trump alternative.

In addition, some data suggest mentions of Trump have declined in broadcast and social media since a peak Aug. 7, the day after the first debate.

Richie Frederick, a New Jersey GOP voter, supported Trump at first but jumped off the bandwagon after Wednesday's debate.

"Originally he was a breath of fresh air, and I liked he was not a politician, but I just lost faith in him," said Frederick, of Seaville, Cape May County. "It's his character - he seems arrogant and self-centered. He makes those horrible comments about women. And then he has no facts to back up his ideas beyond 'Believe me. I'm the greatest.' "

(Frederick said he came away from the debate impressed with Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida.)

In any case, it will take a while to see whether polling picks up large-scale defections from Trump as the Republican campaign heads into the fall, just months from the first voting in Iowa.

Trump may not see much damage from the debate, said Larry J. Sabato, political scientist at the University of Virginia. "Few who are committed to Donald Trump will be dissuaded by anything they saw," he said. "He didn't add many supporters, though; his song sounded very familiar."

As the debate wore on and his foes discussed issues ranging from how best to defeat Islam-inspired terrorists to the Supreme Court to marijuana legalization, Trump lapsed into silence. When he did speak up, he'd usually boast about his toughness and ability to negotiate deals.

Asked how he'd pry the Russian army out of Syria, he said: "I would get along with a lot of the world leaders that this country is not getting along with."

Trump was similarly dismissive of questions on whether his unbridled personality would be suited for conducting foreign policy or keeping custody of the nation's nuclear-weapons codes.

"Believe me, my temperament is very good, very calm," Trump said at one point.

Yet, as Haynes noted, it was just over a year ago that GOP primary voters in Virginia knocked off the House majority leader, former Rep. Eric Cantor, and replaced him with a virtually unknown conservative activist.

There were similar results in primaries for House and Senate in 2010 and 2012.

"Trump supporters feel like the same people," Haynes said. "Some part of the electorate wants leadership untainted by the stench of politics. The question is at what point does Trump become unacceptable to them."

To such voters, he said, nuanced policy talk can sound like the background noise of a broken system.

So far, Trump has been undamaged by attacks based on his past support of Democrats and his liberal positions on issues (he once favored abortion rights and single-payer health care). The Club for Growth, a conservative advocacy group, announced last week that it would spend $1 million on Iowa media to remind voters of Trump's Democratic leanings.

By most analysts' scorecards, Fiorina had a breakout performance in the debate, with concise but detailed positions.

She said her two goals would be to defend U.S. security, building up the military; and to defend what she called the "character of the country," citing the need to stop federal funding for Planned Parenthood, accused of profiting from the sale of postabortion fetal remains to medical firms. (It is legal to sell such remains at cost.)

"She has her moment, her opportunity, and now needs to demonstrate the ability to lead by driving the agenda in this race," Haynes said. "Tell us more, elaborate on those two principles."

If she can do that, Fiorina will be, to borrow a favorite Trump word, "HYUUUGE!"

tfitzgerald@phillynews.com

215-854-2718@tomfitzgerald

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