N.J. race for governor could hinge on job drain

Amid a historic national recession, New Jersey - like every state - has hemorrhaged jobs.

Unemployment is at 9.8 percent, more than double what it was in December 2007, when the recession officially began. That matches the national rate, but is higher than the levels in Pennsylvania and New York.

The numbers are clear. But the election-year debate begins with the argument over how well, or poorly, New Jersey has weathered the economic storm compared with other states.

Gov. Corzine, the only governor seeking reelection in the midst of the crisis, argues that he has taken steps to blunt the recession's pain.

His challengers say that New Jersey's taxes are too high, and that they drag the state down.

Corzine's administration has offered businesses tax credits for jobs created and has accelerated school and road projects to put contractors to work, and Corzine has signed a law he said would allow landowners to clean and redevelop polluted sites faster by using private monitors.

In 2006, he signed off on business-tax changes intended to save companies roughly $200 million, and he has recently approved other tax cuts, though some will not have any effect for years.

"We have already taken steps to make our business environment far more user-friendly," Corzine said in a gubernatorial debate Thursday. In a recent conference call sponsored by the state Chamber of Commerce, he said that despite the recession, New Jersey had a high median income, strong schools, and an ideal location, all of which he said were attractive to businesses.

But Republican challenger Christopher J. Christie said that the job climate was better in Pennsylvania, which has lower taxes. Pennsylvania's unemployment rate is 8.8 percent.

Christie has vowed to cut corporate and income taxes and reduce red tape that might hamper businesses.

"The tax policies we have pursued over the last number of years have made us noncompetitive," he said in the debate. "Private-sector jobs are going to be created by giving these entrepreneurs more of their own money back so they can reinvest it in their companies and create jobs."

Corzine has said the tax cuts would undermine priorities such as education. President Obama joined him last week in casting Christie's platform as a rehash of the Republican tax policies that Democrats have blamed for touching off the recession.

Independent Chris Daggett said his tax plan - which would raise $4 billion by imposing the sales tax on more services, allowing him to cut income and property taxes - would draw companies.

"We do not have a good business climate in this state, and I think that underlying that . . . is the overall tax structure and the regulatory burden," Daggett said in his call with the chamber.

He called for investing more in the state's public colleges, arguing that affordable tuition would keep smart workers in New Jersey. And he proposed raising tourism spending to $30 million, from $10 million, in part by expanding the sales tax to vacation homes and condominium rentals.

When the national recession began, economist Joel Naroff worried about New Jersey. The state had seen years of unbalanced budgets, and many residents were employed in the financial sector hit hard by the downturn.

But he said New Jersey had done better than many states that did not have the same connections to Wall Street.

"Given where it's coming from and given the restraints it was facing, it's performed reasonably well," said Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisers in Holland, Bucks County. "That doesn't mean it's performed well. It hasn't. And there are significant problems facing the state."

With long-running budget deficits, Naroff said, New Jersey cannot afford the same incentives or infrastructure investments that other states dangle to attract businesses. And there is a steady pressure to raise taxes.

"The state's had 20-plus years of fiscal irresponsibility that has sapped its strength," he said. But in this downturn, "things could have been a lot worse."

The recession cost New Jersey 161,500 private-sector jobs through September, according to Rutgers University economist Joseph Seneca. That's a 4.7 percent loss, smaller than the 6.3 percent seen nationally, but more than in Pennsylvania and New York, he said.

Seneca added that other states have done better than New Jersey in boom times, too.

"When we had job growth nationally this decade, New Jersey's private-sector job increase was tepid," he said.

From 2003 through 2007, private-sector jobs increased 2.7 percent, compared with 6.9 percent nationally.

Corzine has touted his economic-recovery package, pushed through the Legislature in late 2008 as the worst of the recession took hold.

The $3,000 tax credits have led companies to promise 16,666 new jobs, according to the state's Economic Development Authority. An additional 16,000 jobs are to be created, according to applications filed by companies, but firms would not receive credits for those positions due to the program caps.

The applications will use up all of the program's $120 million, though Corzine told the chamber he would "more than likely" extend funding after the election.

A loan program intended to help small and midsize businesses has approved $9.9 million in lending, helping to retain 962 jobs and create 134 more, according to the EDA. An additional $2.3 million in loan applications were pending on Oct. 16.

Naroff and Seneca said it was difficult to measure the effects of such incentives.

"Anybody who says [the programs] worked or didn't work, especially in the midst of a political campaign, is probably playing politics," Naroff said.

Surveys that measure taxes usually rank New Jersey among the worst states in the nation for business. The Tax Foundation, which advocates lower taxes, has rated New Jersey's tax climate for businesses dead last.

Naroff said that New Jersey's density does raise its expenses, but he added, "it's clearly a high-tax state." If it weren't for the state's schools and educated workforce, he said, its economy "would have crashed and burned a long time ago."

Forbes.com, whose rankings factor in business costs as well as the quality of labor, economic climate, regulations, prospects for growth, and quality of life, listed New Jersey 45th in its "Best States for Business" report this year. In 2006, the state ranked 16th.

Republicans have hammered Corzine for the state's recent performance.

Seneca and Naroff, however, said there was little a governor could do to reverse economic fortunes during a collapse that is international in scope.

"No state in this recession," Seneca said, "can swim against the tide."