Candidate budgets mostly lift the deficit

WASHINGTON - Massive tax cuts proposed by GOP presidential candidates Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum would cause the national debt to explode, while Mitt Romney's budget plan could generate red ink in line with current projections, according to a study released Thursday.

The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a watchdog group, estimates the wrenching budget cuts proposed by Ron Paul would lessen the flow of red ink compared with current policies, but still leave the government running a sizable deficit.

The GOP candidates' budget plans provide a sharp contrast with President Obama, who released a fiscal plan last week that includes proposals to raise taxes on the wealthy.

In the GOP candidates' tax codes, taxes on investments and capital gains would be sharply reduced or eliminated. Each candidate would eliminate inheritance taxes on large estates. Tax rates on individuals would be cut, too - all in the face of deficits that economists say would eventually cripple the economy.

The results, according to the study, would be higher deficits, except in the case of Paul, whose spending cuts dwarf anything being considered by his three rivals.

According to the study, Gingrich's plan would add $7 trillion to the nation's debt over the next nine years - almost doubling the deficits that would be recorded if the government basically ran on autopilot. Santorum's plan would add $4.5 trillion over the period, or about $500 billion to the deficit every year on average.

By contrast, Romney's proposal would add $250 billion to the deficit over nine years, though that estimate was generated before he unveiled a new tax plan this week that could add considerably to the deficit.

Paul, whose budget includes eliminating five cabinet departments, immediately ending operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, and sharply cutting federal programs such as Medicaid and food stamps, would reduce the deficit by $2.2 trillion. He is the only candidate whose spending cuts exceed the amount of revenue lost by cutting taxes.

By the end of fiscal 2016, Gingrich's plan would produce a deficit of 7.8 percent of the economy, or almost $1.5 trillion. Santorum's would produce a deficit in the $1.2 trillion range, or 6.5 percent of gross domestic product. Romney's plan - given the benefit of the doubt since his new plan is so vague - would leave a 2016 deficit of $700 billion to $800 billion or so. Paul's plan would leave a 2016 deficit of almost $500 billion. Obama's plan claims a $649 billion deficit by 2016, relying on tax hikes to do it.

The watchdog group didn't publish specific deficit figures for 2016 but provided estimates of them as a percentage of GDP to the Associated Press, which calculated them based on the economic estimates of the Congressional Budget Office.