Sestak, McGinty have equal chance against Toomey, poll says

WASHINGTON - Democrats Joe Sestak and Katie McGinty fare equally in potential matchups against Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey, though the Republican incumbent holds a large advantage over both, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.

The survey, the first since McGinty announced her candidacy this month, shows Toomey leading Sestak by 48-33 and McGinty 48-32. The poll provides an early snapshot of a race expected to be critical to deciding control of the Senate.

Sestak, a former admiral and Delaware County congressman, has been laying the groundwork for years for a potential rematch with Toomey, and launched his campaign in March. McGinty, Gov. Wolf's former chief of staff, entered the race with a string of endorsements from the Democratic establishment - including former Gov. Rendell.

What's unclear, though, is how they will fare in a Democratic primary, where the electorate will be far different than in the general election. Sestak also begins with a significant advantage in campaign funds.

Their equal footing against Toomey even extends to their standing among women, despite McGinty's winning a high-profile endorsement from the Democratic women's group EMILY's List. Toomey led the women's vote by 40-37 against Sestak and 40-38 against McGinty. He has a commanding lead among men in both matchups.

Toomey has held double-digit leads in polls throughout the year and been helped by spending by outside Republican groups. For the Democrats, 61 percent said they don't know enough about Sestak to form an opinion and 74 percent said the same about McGinty.

The poll surveyed 1,085 Pennsylvania voters and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.