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Can Christie get right with the right? Iowa summit offers a test

DES MOINES, Iowa - For months, the 2016 Republican presidential race has been dominated by the "invisible primary" scramble for the backing of the party's donor class.

DES MOINES, Iowa - For months, the 2016 Republican presidential race has been dominated by the "invisible primary" scramble for the backing of the party's donor class.

On Saturday, it goes grassroots.

At least eight likely candidates will give their pitches to 1,500 conservative activists at the Iowa Freedom Summit in Des Moines, trying to seduce the people who pack a punch in the GOP caucuses, where the first votes of the party's nominating process are scheduled to be cast in a little over a year.

"This is the kickoff to the caucus season," said Cody Hoefert, the Rock City chiropractor who is cochairman of the Iowa Republican Party.

For Chris Christie, it's a chance to gain purchase with a crowd that has been skeptical of his moderate reputation.

The New Jersey governor has been upstaged in recent weeks by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and 2012 nominee Mitt Romney, who are exploring campaigns and competing with Christie to be the champion of the party's establishment, pragmatic wing. But Bush and Romney declined invitations to Saturday's summit.

Along with Christie, potential candidates scheduled to appear here include former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, neurosurgeon/pundit Ben Carson, and former Hewlett-Packard Co. chief executive Carly Fiorina.

Sarah Palin isn't running for anything, but she's on the guest list. So is Donald Trump.

"This is the most energy I've seen this early," said Steve Deace, a Des Moines-based conservative broadcaster.

Carson, for instance, claims backers in all 99 counties, and candidates have been trooping to Iowa regularly to meet with potential backers and, during the midterms, campaign for Iowa Republicans. Christie, who as chairman of the Republican Governors Association was fund-raiser-in-chief for those governors' campaigns, has close ties with Gov. Terry Branstad and his network.

Deace is not sure how much such connections are worth in a caucus system that tends to reward ideological insurgents.

"The caucus process reduces the impact of establishment money," he said. "There's a level of accountability for your vote in a caucus. I have to answer to my PTA president, my pastor, my priest, the president of Kiwanis. ... It's difficult for a corporatist Republican to win the Iowa caucuses."

In the history of those caucuses, two victories by GOP establishment candidates stand out: In 1976, President Gerald R. Ford edged out Ronald Reagan, and then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush won in 2000 - though he was helped by his strong following among fellow evangelical Christians, in addition to his bigwig backers.

Evangelical Christian activists have assumed outsize clout in the caucuses, where they comprised 60 percent of the turnout in 2012, according to a caucus-day poll of participants conducted for the television networks.

That year, Santorum, a social conservative veteran of the culture wars, came from behind to edge Romney by seven votes. Huckabee, a Baptist minister, won Iowa in 2008.

If both run, they will fight for the same supporters.

The summit provides an opportunity for Christie to win over some grassroots conservatives, which he would need for a campaign to go along with his Wall Street and party establishment support. If he does well, it could help restore momentum that has been lost amid recent weeks of headlines about Bush and Romney.

U.S. Rep. Steve King of Iowa, a Republican hard-liner on immigration, is the host of the conference, along with the activist group Citizens United. (King made headlines of his own this week with his tweet describing the Texas woman who was Michelle Obama's guest at the State of the Union address, and who was brought to the United States illegally as a child, as "a deportable.") Christie is friends with King, and the event may force the New Jersey governor to address immigration, a hot-button issue he has avoided.

Republican leaders have struggled to balance strong internal opposition to immigration changes that would provide a path to citizenship for millions of undocumented people, while courting Hispanics, the fastest growing demographic group in the nation.

The party's starchy stance on immigration contributed to Romney's dismal showing among Latinos, exit polls showed. Christie has touted his having won 46 percent of the Hispanic vote in New Jersey during his 2013 reelection as a sign of his electability in a national race.

"I think he could do well here," said influential conservative leader Chuck Laudner of northwest Iowa, who was a key adviser in Santorum's campaign in 2012 but is unaligned now. "People like Chris Christie. He doesn't line up on a lot of issues with the base of the party, but there's a lot of respect for a guy who can win in a state like New Jersey, and for his straight talk. It depends on the dynamics six months or a year from now."

Besides, "viability is a bigger issue this cycle" for many activists, Laudner said. There is a hunger to win after eight years of President Obama, not just to make a statement.

Hoefert, the state party cochairman, said that there's plenty of time for candidates to gather strength in the state. But, he said, there's only one way to do it.

"Iowa caucus-goers reward good behavior," he said. "They support people who come to Iowa, take it seriously, and work hard. If you want to win, you have to go to the small counties, every corner of the state, over the months."

That helps explain why Santorum did well here in 2012 - he stumped in every one of Iowa's 99 counties.

In a state where Friday morning's headlines were about layoffs at John Deere and a stronger dollar depressing the price of corn, caucus-goers like to vet the would-be presidents with uncomfortable questions in living rooms, coffee shops, and Pizza Ranches, a popular statewide chain.

As Hoefert put it, "There has to be a relationship."

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@tomfitzgerald

www.inquirer.com/bigtent