Will voter gains in Phila. suburbs help Democrats?

   Races to fill the seats of two retiring lawmakers in the Philadelphia suburbs are among the most competitive campaigns for the Pennsylvania House this fall.

Those races, in Bucks and Delaware Counties, could indicate whether gains in voter registration for Democrats will translate into campaign victories, analysts say.

Though there are only a handful of close House races this fall, "a lion's share of them are right around the Philadelphia suburbs," said Chris Borick, a pollster and political scientist at Muhlenberg College.

Those races include the seats of retiring Republicans in Bucks and Delaware Counties as well as a new district in Chester County.

The Republican-controlled House is unlikely to change hands after the Nov. 4 election, in which all 203 seats are up for reelection and 105 candidates are running unopposed.

"Our party is very confident that we're going to maintain our majority in the state House," said Megan Sweeney, spokeswoman for the state Republican Party.

Democrats have set a goal of gaining a few seats.

"Non-presidential elections are always tough for us, and Pennsylvanians love incumbents. But I don't think voters are going to give the House GOP a pass on doing Corbett's dirty work," said Rep. Tim Briggs (D., Montgomery), chairman of the House Democratic Campaign Committee, referring to Gov. Corbett, a Republican.

A contentious race is underway in Delaware County for the seat of retiring Rep. Nicholas Micozzie, a Republican.

Republican James Santora, a 43-year-old Upper Darby councilman and real estate broker, is running against Democrat Vince Rongione, 37, a lawyer who lives in Drexel Hill.

Micozzie, who has held his seat since 1978, won reelection in a close race in 2012. The district, which includes parts of Haverford and Upper Darby Townships as well as Aldan and Clifton Heights, has more registered Republicans than Democrats.

Both candidates said they are seeking to carry on the legacy of the retiring representative. Rongione and Santora both said they support fair funding for schools and imposing a natural gas severance tax to fund public education.

"People are dissatisfied with Gov. Corbett and the direction that he's taken the state," Rongione said of the chances that the district could elect its first Democrat. "So I think, for me, the opportunity is more that people are hungry for some new ideas and some new energy."

Rongione has gained endorsements of some labor unions that previously endorsed Micozzie, another sign of shifting politics in traditionally Republican Delaware County.

Santora said he would not simply stand with Republican leadership but would work across the aisle to serve the district, especially to get more funding for its schools.

"That's something Nick Micozzie always did here," Santora said. "And that's the kind of thing that needs to be done. We've got to do things in a bipartisan effort if we're going to be successful."

In upper Bucks County, Republican Rep. Paul Clymer is also retiring this year, leaving an open race between Republican Craig Staats and Democrat Karen Chellew.

Staats, a Richland Township supervisor, said he wants to improve Pennsylvania's business climate and create more jobs through tax-incentive programs.

"We have a lot of businesses leaving the state," Staats said. "We have other businesses that aren't considering coming to Pennsylvania, and we have a lot of workers that are following those businesses out of state."

Chellew, business manager of a law firm in Perkasie, said she would like to focus on keeping property taxes low, improving public education, and making infrastructure repairs.

"I am not your typical politician," she said. "I really come at things from a different angle, a different perspective."

Election results in districts with open seats could be indicative of long-term trends, said Randall Miller, a political analyst and St. Joseph's University professor. Democrats may have an opportunity to gain a few House seats, he said, but increasing voter registration for Democrats in the Philadelphia suburbs has not yet led to the election of more Democrats.

"If they can win some of them where Democrats have not been successful before, that could have significance in terms of party-building," Miller said.

Chester County has an entirely Republican delegation in the House. But Democrats are pushing to break that lock in the new 74th District, where the majority of registered voters are Democrats.

Republican Harry Lewis, a retired coach, teacher, and administrator in the Coatesville School District, is running against Democrat Josh Maxwell, who became the youngest mayor of Downingtown in 2009 and has since overcome fallout from a DUI arrest.

Other districts, including some in Montgomery and Chester Counties, are typically close.

Republican Rep. Dan Truitt is facing a challenge in Chester County from Democrat Sandra Snyder, a lawyer from East Goshen.

Another Republican incumbent, Rep. Warren Kampf, whose district covers Chester and Montgomery Counties, narrowly won reelection in the last three elections. Democrat Marian Moskowitz, a businesswoman from Tredyffrin, is challenging Kampf this fall.

Those districts are notable because Democrats and Republicans have nearly equal numbers of registered voters, said Borick, of Muhlenberg College. And in the Pennsylvania House, that makes them an irregularity.

"There's just not that many seats that you could really classify as competitive," Borick said. "That's the nature of the districts, how they're designed, where the competition is."

In Philadelphia, incumbents without challengers include Reps. Ron Waters, Michelle Brownlee, and Louise Bishop, who were caught on tape accepting money as part of the controversial sting investigation shut down by Attorney General Kathleen G. Kane. Rep. Vanessa Brown, a fourth lawmaker named as a target in the sting investigation, is facing a challenge from Green Party candidate Glenn Davis.

(This article has been corrected from an earlier version.)