Poll shows Knox with big gain

White millionaire Tom Knox has gained significant ground among African American voters over the last five months in the Philadelphia mayor's race, according to a new poll released yesterday.

The survey, conducted for the Philadelphia Tribune, shows Knox as the preferred candidate of 14 percent of likely black voters in the May 15 Democratic primary, up from 1 percent in the newspaper's last poll in October.

Given the poll's margin of error, Knox has climbed into a statistical tie for second place among black voters with State Rep. Dwight Evans, who is African American. Evans was the choice of 18 percent.

U.S. Rep. Chaka Fattah held a sizable lead at 27 percent, though it shrank by about 6 percentage points since October.

"It would be fair to say Knox has connected with black voters," said pollster Ron Lester, a nationally known expert on black voting patterns. "Voters are in a pretty foul mood and ripe for change."

Former City Councilman Michael A. Nutter's level of support was 9 percent, unchanged from the earlier poll, though in yesterday's survey Nutter led among black voters who described themselves as white-collar professionals.

U.S. Rep. Bob Brady had 8 percent of the black vote, and the most negative personal rating among the five major candidates in the primary field; 26 percent of African American voters said they had a favorable view of the congressman, with 24 percent saying their view of Brady was negative. Brady has represented a majority black congressional district since 1998.

Twenty-four percent of respondents were undecided.

The poll was based on telephone interviews with 400 registered African American voters who said they were planning to vote in the primary, and was conducted from March 21 to 23. Results are subject to a sampling error-margin of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

Knox, who was little known before the campaign, has spent more than $4 million of his own money on TV ads, dwarfing the spending of everybody else.

Nutter launched his first ad of the campaign yesterday, a 30-second spot attacking the man he would like to succeed, Mayor Street. The spot highlights Nutter's victory over Street's opposition on the creation of a city ethics board; his standing up when the mayor "stonewalled" on tax cuts; and his pushing through the hiring of 200 more police officers, which Street said was too expensive. "Philadelphia's next mayor must run this city differently than John Street has - Michael Nutter will," the ad says in its closing.

It is the first comparative ad of the campaign, though aimed at a term-limited mayor who is not on the ballot.

"When you ask if the city is headed in the right direction, every single demographic in the city says the city is off on the wrong track," said Neil Oxman, Nutter's media consultant.

Lester said that Brady's poll rating may have been affected by the court challenge to his right to be on the ballot, which was extensively covered in the news last week during the interviews. Brady omitted a city pension and his ties to the carpenters union on a financial disclosure form, and Knox has sued to have him kicked off the ballot.

"Any time there's a poll during something that has nothing to do with the issues of the campaign, it's going to come out mildly skewed," said Brady spokeswoman Kate Philips.

Brady launched a 30-second ad yesterday, touting his plan to expand after-school programs to every recreation center in the city as an anti-crime measure.

Nutter was not discouraged by his showing in the Tribune poll, which echoed findings of other surveys, his campaign said.

"We only have room to grow," said spokeswoman Melanie Johnson. "We don't panic. Call us the tortoise. You know who won that race."