Obama, McCain have tough choices choosing running mates

What's striking about the conversation surrounding the selection of running mates for Barack Obama and John McCain is that it has generated more curiosity than passion.

Four years ago, there was a groundswell in Democratic ranks for John Edwards to get the nod. In other years, various groups have pressured presidential nominees to go one way or another.

This time, now that Obama has signaled he's not inclined to select Hillary Rodham Clinton, few politicians or factions seem thrilled or repelled by any of his options. Or are actively lobbying for or against anyone.

That's true on the Republican side, too, even though McCain's age, 71, elevates the importance of his choice.

"It's not like anybody feels that any of those guys being mentioned [in either party] has to get it," said John Hinshaw, a historian at Lebanon Valley College.

This is happening, analysts say, because the two parties are relatively unified - the Democrats by a desire for victory, the Republicans by fear of defeat - and many of the would-be running mates don't loom as giants.

"I think both candidates have tough choices," said Joel Goldstein, an expert on the vice presidency at St. Louis University. "Maybe it's hindsight playing tricks on me. But it looks like the short lists in some years past contained people of greater stature."

In 1980, for instance, Republican Ronald Reagan's options included Gerald Ford, Howard Baker and George H.W. Bush, whom he chose. In 1988, Democrat Michael Dukakis went with Lloyd Bentsen after considering John Glenn, Dick Gephardt, Al Gore and Jesse Jackson.

Another factor may be a recognition of electoral reality: By Election Day, history suggests, the selection usually makes little difference.

After all, if a running mate performs as intended, he or she gets noticed only three times during the campaign - on selection day, at the convention, and during the vice presidential debate.

But the last two vice presidents, Gore and Dick Cheney, did become influential figures in their administrations. And vice presidents have a way of becoming presidents, either through succession or on their own.

For Democrat Obama, the choice appears to be between emphasizing his message of change with a governor, Tim Kaine of Virginia or Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, or adding the experience of a veteran senator such as Evan Bayh of Indiana or Joe Biden of Delaware.

The options for Republican McCain appear to be pleasing his party's conservative base, with someone like Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota; shoring up his economic credentials with a Mitt Romney; or reaching out to independents with someone like Tom Ridge.

With three weeks to go before the Democrats go to Denver, here's a look at the pluses and minuses of some of those getting mentioned as potential running mates.

It's subject to the caveat that only a few people know what's going on, and they're not talking. So either or both of the vice presidential nominees could wind up being from among those not mentioned in the speculation:

The Democrats: Kaine, 50, is in his second year as governor of Virginia. He's under consideration because he was an early Obama supporter, and there's personal chemistry between the two of them.

A social moderate who's personally opposed to abortion, but has supported abortion rights with some restrictions, Kaine, a Catholic, might help in Virginia, a blue state the Democrats would love to have.

Putting him on the ticket would reinforce the change message. Then again, he's little-known nationally. Republicans are preparing to tout an Obama-Kaine ticket as one of the least experienced in U.S. history.

Then there's Bayh, 52, a familiar face in U.S. politics, having served eight years as Indiana's governor and 10 in the Senate. In fact, he was on Al Gore's vice presidential short list in 2000.

Bayh represents a blue state where Obama looks competitive, and he was a strong Clinton supporter in the primaries. In the Senate, he serves on the Intelligence and Armed Services Committees. That's all to the good.

But having two senators on a ticket may not be the ideal way to signal that change is coming to Washington.

Another possibility from the Senate is Biden.

In his failed presidential campaign, Biden, 65, burnished his reputation as an expert on foreign policy, an area in which Obama has limited experience. Biden is a Catholic who spent his early years in northeastern Pennsylvania, a key region in a key state.

The downside is that Biden has been known to talk too much; vice presidential candidates are expected to stay on message. And Delaware is not a pivotal battleground.

Sebelius, 60, gets high marks for her two terms as governor and was an early Obama supporter. She, too, is a Catholic, a group with which Obama sometimes struggled in the primaries.

The question is how women who backed Clinton would react to seeing a woman other than Clinton on the ticket. And Kansas is not in play.

The Republicans: Prominent in the conversation is Pawlenty, 47, the two-term governor of Minnesota. He's articulate, attractive, and popular with the conservative base. He's an evangelical Christian who speaks proudly of his faith and his values.

He might improve the ticket's chances in Minnesota, a state that has gone Democratic in every election since 1972, but has been close the last two times.

The downside is that Pawlenty has no experience outside of Minnesota and in two winning gubernatorial campaigns has never exceeded 47 percent of the vote.

Also in the mix is Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts and former presidential candidate.

Romney, 61, brings a lot to the table, including a long and successful business career and the economic expertise that comes with it.

His Michigan roots might help in that state, which is as important to the McCain campaign as any on the map. His Mormon faith is a plus in the West, including the battleground state of Nevada.

But being a Mormon is a minus to some evangelicals who don't consider the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints a branch of Christianity. Democrats will try to exploit the bitter primary-season exchanges between Romney and McCain, who didn't seem to like each other.

Also being mentioned are Eric Cantor, 45, a Virginia congressman who is deputy minority whip in the House, and Rob Portman, 52, who's been a congressman from Ohio, U.S. trade representative, and director of the Office of Management and Budget.

The Associated Press reported yesterday that the McCain campaign has asked Cantor for personal documents. Portman, appearing on CNN, said he had not received such a request.

If McCain had his druthers, he might well choose Ridge, 62, the former Pennsylvania governor and ex-director of the Department of Homeland Security. Ridge is a close McCain friend and would elevate Republican prospects in Pennsylvania.

The problem is that Ridge is a Catholic who favors abortion rights. His selection could spur a revolt at the GOP convention in St. Paul.

John McCain is making a quick visit to the Philadelphia area today.

The presumptive Republican presidential nominee is scheduled to fly into Philadelphia International Airport at midmorning. From there, he is scheduled to travel to Montgomery County to tour a local business before leaving for South Dakota.

None of the local events is open to the public.

- Inquirer staff

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