Signs point to a lengthy GOP race

In separate conversations, speaking privately, two leading Pennsylvania Republicans recently volunteered the same striking and highly unconventional thought.

Despite the front-loading of their party's primary season next year, they can envision a prolonged battle for the GOP presidential nomination, perhaps one that goes all the way to the convention.

They're not saying that's the most likely outcome or the most desirable. But at this point, they say they don't believe any candidate is strong enough to blow away the others in the early going.

Nothing that happened during the last few days - when the eight men in the race engaged in two of the major political events of the fall, the Values Voters Summit in Washington and a debate in Orlando - served to change the dynamics of the contest.

The key variable in gauging the Republican contest at this stage is the strength of Rudy Giuliani.

For months, the best-known candidate has been the front-runner in the national polls, his vote hovering around 30 percent, the number rarely rising or falling.

Does that mean he has a ceiling, as social-conservative leader Gary Bauer said over the weekend? Or is that 30 percent a base on which Giuliani can build once the voting starts and the field thins?

These questions arise not just because the abortion-rights stance of the former New York mayor distresses many in the party's base. They arise because Giuliani, whose appeal in the Northeast is undeniable, is running a campaign that does not emphasize the importance of the traditional early states.

Giuliani, who pitches himself as the most electable Republican, is seeking to survive the opening contests, rather than sweep them. His plan is to seize a commanding position on Feb. 5, when California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois and numerous other states select their delegates. He and his aides have been quite explicit about this.

Meanwhile, the candidate who might emerge as his chief rival, Mitt Romney, has adopted precisely the opposite strategy, investing vast amounts of time and money (much of it his own) in the smaller states that will dominate the story line at the outset of the voting.

In Iowa, home of the first-in-the-nation caucuses, now set for Jan. 3, polls show Romney the leader, Giuliani fourth. In New Hampshire, site of the first primary, Romney is first, Giuliani second.

In Michigan, which is likely to come next on a political calendar that remains a work in progress, Romney and Giuliani are running about even. In South Carolina, slated to follow four days later, Giuliani and Thompson are virtually tied at the top, with Romney and John McCain not far behind.

The question is what happens to Giuliani's strength in the big states that follow - he has substantial leads in many of them - if he falters at the outset. Traditionally, winners of the early events get a boost while also-rans suffer, which is not to say that is how it has to work this time around.

On the other hand, there's the question of whether Romney is going to be in a position to capitalize on early success if he achieves it.

His national standing, in the low double-digits, has been consistent for months. The former Massachusetts governor, viewed as a moderate in years past, is portraying himself as a "real Republican," the candidate who best embodies what he calls the three key elements of the Reagan coalition - economic conservatives, social conservatives and foreign-policy conservatives.

Still unclear is exactly how Thompson, McCain, and Mike Huckabee figure into the mix.

Despite a lackluster start, the late-entering Thompson, a former Tennessee senator who bills himself as a "consistent conservative," is running second nationally in most polls and at least that well in key southern states like Florida and South Carolina. He has maintained his standing even though he has, at times, failed to convey much enthusiasm for the race.

In the debate Sunday night, Thompson did show some fire, claiming that Giuliani "sides with Hillary Clinton" on issues such as gun control and federal funding for abortion and deftly handling a question about his alleged laziness.

McCain, who almost folded his tent in the summer, is back with his blunt, take-me-or-leave-me persona, stressing the importance of the nation's standing firm in Iraq and elsewhere. The Arizona senator is, he says, the "reliable conservative," and he's showed some recent polling strength, too, running about even nationally with Romney and gaining ground in New Hampshire, which he won in 2000.

Then there's Huckabee, an ordained Baptist minister, the governor of Arkansas and the emerging choice of rank-and-file social conservatives. He's an engaging speaker, a plain-spoken man with populist leanings. And he appears to be gaining ground in Iowa, where all of those characteristics play particularly well.

But he has less than a million dollars in the bank and has yet to demonstrate any ability to raise money. If that changes, he could have an impact.

So the Republican field looks to have more viable candidates today than it had a few months ago. For now, at least, that sounds like the formula for a race that might not be over before it starts.

The Republican National Committee's executive committee yesterday recommended punishing five states if they shift their nomination contests earlier, moving to strip New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina, Michigan and Wyoming of half their delegates.

Party rules ban holding votes before Feb. 5.

Wyoming is scheduled to hold its nominating conventions on Jan. 5. Michigan will hold its Republican primary on Jan. 15; South Carolina, Jan. 19, and Florida, Jan. 29.

New Hampshire has not yet set a primary date.

The proposal now will be voted on by the full RNC. Party chairman Mike Duncan will have the final say.

- Associated Press

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