Toomey leads among likely voters in new poll

In a sign of the "enthusiasm gap" that is buoying Republican candidates across the nation, Republican Senate candidate Pat Toomey enjoys a 40 percent to 31 percent lead over Democrat Joe Sestak among those most likely to vote in November, a new Franklin & Marshall College poll finds.

Among all registered voters, Toomey's lead in the Senate race narrows considerably: 31 percent to 28 percent, with 38 percent undecided. Twenty-six percent of likely voters said they were undecided between Toomey and Sestak.

The GOP nominee for governor, Attorney General Tom Corbett, likewise leads Democrat Dan Onorato 38 to 27 percent among the most motivated voters, with 31 percent undecided. Among all registered voters, Corbett's lead is only 29 percent to 28 percent.

Democrats (37 percent) say they are less likely to vote than Republicans (45 percent) at the moment, the poll finds. In another comparison, about one third (35 percent of those who voted for President Obama in 2008 are likely to vote now compared to half (50%) of Sen. John McCain voters.

The poll is based on interviews with 485 registered voters conducted by telephone from Aug. 16-23. Results of the survey from this group are subject to a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.