Specter, Toomey now even in latest poll

Sen. Arlen Specter's 20-point lead over former U.S Rep. Pat Toomey has evaporated in the last two months, leaving him in a dead heat with his potential Republican challenger in the 2010 Senate race, according to a poll released today.

In the most recent Quinnipiac University poll, Specter – who is seeking his sixth Senate term and first as a Democrat - was supported by 45 percent of the respondents compared with Toomey's 44 percent.

And voters, by a margin of 49 to 40 percent, say Specter does not deserve re-election, a near reversal from a May poll in which 49 percent voters said Specter deserved re-election compared with 41 percent who did not.

"This poll was all about Specter, not Toomey," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Connecticut-based polling institute. "For whatever reason, voters are less enamored with Arlen Specter than we have seen."

In a May 4 Quinnipiac poll, Specter led Toomey 53 to 33 percent.

Brown said the wider margin for Specter could reflect a broader "crankiness" by the electorate about the nation's economic climate.

"Pennsylvania is not an island," he said. "A lot of office holders are seeing their numbers down. Voters are beginning to blame not George Bush, but those in power now."

Toomey, who nearly upset Specter in the 2004 Republican primary, does not "put a lot of stock In polls because they "jump around a lot," his spokeswoman Nachama Soloveichik said.

But, "it's clear that Pat Toomey's message of fiscal responsibility and bringing much-needed balance to Washington is catching on with folks all across Pennsylvania," she said.

The poll showed both Specter and Toomey leading party rivals by healthy margins heading into primaries next year.

In the GOP race, Toomey leads Johnstown-based activist Peg Luksik 47 percent to 6 percent, with 45 percent undecided.

Specter is ahead of U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak 55 to 23 percent, with 19 percent of Democrats undecided. Sestak yesterday told reporters that his formal announcement would come within weeks, but he also said that he has visited all 67 Pennsylvania counties and is running for the Senate.

The poll tells Sestak that he needs to make himself more visible, he said in a statement today.

"Few knew me before, but invariably they responded favorably both to me and what I represent," Sestak said in an e-mail. "The polls reflect that fact: 70 percent of voters don't know me well enough to make a decision. I have a lot of work to do, but the message of trustworthy leadership resonated."

The telephone poll of 1,173 voters was conducted during a six-day period that ended Sunday. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.