Decision time nears for Christie

Gov. Christie, who is openly weighing a run for president, in recent months has met with donors across the country and made multiple trips to the early presidential nominating states of New Hampshire and Iowa - officially in his role as chairman of the Republican Governors Association.

But with the midterm elections over, other makings of a potential Christie campaign haven't come into focus.

There is no federal political action committee raising money for the governor. A federal rule that restricts donations from the financial sector might hinder his potential donors. And with his role at the helm of the RGA having ended, pressure to declare his intentions will mount if he announces new visits to crucial primary states.

At least two of the governor's potential Republican primary adversaries - Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal - have the backing of such committees. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz have leadership PACs - common for congressional lawmakers.

A lawmaker who forms a leadership PAC, however, can't use it to support his own campaign activities, although the PAC can pay for travel.

In Perry's case, a 501(c)(4) organization, which does not have to disclose its donors and is limited in how much it can spend on political advocacy, has allowed for the involvement of consultants like Mike Dennehy, a Republican strategist in New Hampshire.

Dennehy said, "We're doing the obvious, which is talking to people in preparation of a potential candidacy."

As for Christie, "I think there's somewhat of an underground effort" in New Hampshire, Dennehy said. "But it has not surfaced."

Christie invested significant time in New Hampshire, which holds the first presidential primary, during his leadership of the RGA, which ended after the midterms.

He also has an ally in the state Republican Party, which is chaired by a former aide, Matt Mowers.

And though Christie doesn't have a fund-raising committee, he did have "a leadership PAC in a very real sense," the RGA, said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

Christie helped raise more than $100 million to support Republican candidates in a year when the GOP gained governors' seats.

"The RGA had more spending and impact than any of the [committees] for Perry, Paul, Cruz, and Rubio," Sabato said.

Bill Palatucci, an adviser to Christie, said the governor had made a "commitment to his fellow governors" that he would not start a committee for himself while serving as leader of the RGA.

Christie also has a financial backer waiting in the wings.

"If the governor decides to run, raising money will not be a problem or an issue. Period," said Kenneth Langone, the billionaire cofounder of Home Depot.

In an interview last week, Langone said he expected Christie to make a decision on running "by after the first of the year."

If that happens, "my whole role will be to go out and raise money directly for his candidacy," he said. He said his fund-raising would be directly for the Christie campaign and not for a so-called super PAC, which can raise unlimited amounts of money but would not be allowed to coordinate with campaigns.

Langone said any fund-raising efforts for Christie wouldn't be hindered by a Securities and Exchange Commission rule that prevents investment advisers who make a political donation to an elected official covered by the rule from doing business in that official's jurisdiction.

"Whatever the law says you can't do, you don't do," Langone said.

What exactly the SEC rule disallows - and how it might affect Christie - is a subject of debate.

In 2012, Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney's campaign was concerned that if Christie were picked as vice president and didn't resign as governor, Romney would have to forgo Wall Street donations, according to Collision 2012, a book by Washington Post reporter Dan Balz.

Though donors could seek to skirt the rule by giving to a super PAC, "you can't really do anything indirectly that the rule prohibits directly," said Jason Abel, a Washington lawyer who represents investment advisers.

The SEC has yet to really look at the issue, Abel said. "I would say this is a rather gray area."

The rule - which took effect in 2011 and is intended to prohibit pay-to-play violations - covers investment advisers and associates who solicit business on behalf of the adviser. If they donate more than $350 in an election cycle to an official with the ability to influence the hiring of an investment adviser, they would be prohibited from doing business with the state for two years.

Other sitting governors also would be affected by the rule, Abel said.

To run for president and raise money for their campaigns, candidates must form and declare committees with the Federal Election Commission. (Jim Webb, a former Democratic senator from Virginia, has already done so.)

Those running in 2016 would have incentive to announce committees in early January or early April 2015, which would give them the most time to raise money before they have to disclose how much they've raised, said Michael Toner, a former FEC chairman.

If Christie opts not to file official campaign paperwork until April, he could first create a leadership PAC that would allow him to raise money for travel, Toner said.

The next time Christie visits one of the early presidential states, "I would think . . . he should be announcing either a testing-the-waters effort or an actual candidacy," Sabato said. "The truth is, it's only 14 months to Iowa, maybe less if the current schedule slips. Even the best-known candidates like [Hillary] Clinton, [Jeb] Bush, and Christie don't have a large time cushion."

No potential Republican candidate has much organization right now in New Hampshire, said GOP strategist Tom Rath - with the exception, he said, of Paul, whose father, Ron Paul, finished second in the state's primary in 2012.

"I think most people are waiting," said Rath, who advised former President George H.W. Bush's campaign and Romney's in 2012.

Walt Havenstein, who failed to win the governorship in New Hampshire despite Christie's backing - the New Jersey governor visited the Granite State five times before the election - said last week he wasn't aware of any plans for Christie to return to the state. "The invitation is always standing for Gov. Christie, and, frankly, for other potential candidates that might be coming to New Hampshire," he said.