2011 race? Yawn. Look to 2015

FORGET the 2011's mayor's race.

Seriously. Not since then-Mayor Ed Rendell romped to re-election in 1995 has there been a mayoral election more devoid of real competition. Despite the colorful antics of T. Milton Street, Mayor Nutter is all but guaranteed to serve another four years.

Snooze.

So let's move on to a far more interesting mayoral fight, shall we? We're talking about the 2015 primary election, when a small army of usual suspects will likely enter the fray.

Sure, it might seem like a long way off, but in fact candidates for that contest - when the seat will be wide open - are already jockeying for position. And the political posturing will only pick up in June after the Democratic primary is over and Nutter's lame-duck second term is secured.

"Oh, they were jockeying for it a year ago," said political consultant Ken Smukler. "It is an amazing aphrodisiac what this job offers you. It's something few politicians can resist contemplating, and once they run for it, they have an itch to run again."

Tensions are already running high between some of the most likely candidates. Just last week, City Controller Alan Butkovitz and Councilman Bill Green had a heated exchange in City Council chambers after a committee hearing, squabbling in raised voices before a number of onlookers. While that set-to - which both officials declined to discuss - was reportedly not over the future mayoral election, it shows that this could get ugly sooner than later.

Beyond building profile, it actually makes good sense for candidates to start early, given the city's campaign-finance rules. The limits are set by calendar year, not election cycle, so those who start raising early can max out their donors several times between now and spring 2015.

"It puts premium on going multiyear," Smukler said of the campaign-finance limits. He added that residents should soon expect to see from the candidates "a lot of self-promotion, a lot of positioning, a lot of positioning with respect to Michael Nutter, a lot of positioning with respect to each other."

Clearly, the games are already under way.