Snow and ice threaten commutes, flights

Old Man Winter is showing no mercy.

Between late tonight and Wednesday afternoon, the Philadelphia region could see the full arsenal of nastiness, and another round could be in store for Friday into Saturday.

The next two morning commutes could be hazardous, and freezing rain raises the specter of downed wires and power outages.

Air travel could also have major disruptions.

"This is a pretty big storm that's going to be affecting a large area east of the Rockies, so expect major delays," said Tom Kines, AccuWeather meteorologist. "This is going to bring one to two feet of snow to such places as Kansas City, Chicago and Detroit." Then New York and Boston are likely to be hit hard as well.

Wednesday - Groundhog Day - looks like one folks won't want to relive, with Punxsutawney Phil facing this forecast for his neck of the western woods: "Freezing rain before 8 a.m., then rain likely between 8 a.m. and 11 a.m., then rain and snow likely after 11 a.m." If Phil fails to see his shadow (not counting the glare of TV camera lights), spring supposedly should come early.

For the Philadelphia region, the timetable roughly looks like this:

Snow should start between late tonight and Tuesday morning, with an inch or two accumulating in the city, Delaware and Chester Counties, and South Jersey.

Montgomery, Bucks and counties to the north should see two to six inches of snow, according to an advisory from the National Weather Service.

By Tuesday afternoon, sleet could join the snow throughout the region, with rain a possible part of the mix for the city, its southwestern suburbs and South Jersey.

"Precipitation should lighten up in the afternoon, around 1 or 2 o'clock," so treated roads might be manageable Tuesday afternoon, Kines said.

Tuesday night, the precip will change over to freezing rain, with up to two-tenths of an inch accumulating in the city, Delaware County and South Jersey, but up to a half-inch in Chester County and areas north of the city.

"Half an inch of ice is devastating," Kines said.

"That would be horrendous. There would be major problems, with tree limbs coming down."

Ice is also a big troublemaker at airports.

Philadelphia, though, might escape the worst.

"I don't think it's a slam-dunk that there's a lot of ice in the city," he said. "I think it's a close call, though. It can be the difference of 1 or 2 degrees."

The ramifications are serious for the most-impacted areas, the weather service warns:

"Ice may accumulate on tree limbs and utility wires from Tuesday night into Wednesday. Widespread power outages are possible," the advisory states.

Rain should return on Wednesday morning in the southeastern zone, and by Wednesday afternoon to areas north of the city, except for "the coldest locations of the Pocono region and far northern New Jersey," which could continue to see freezing rain.

Although the next two morning commutes in the Philadelphia area may be challenging, "it appears as though the evening commute times on both Tuesday and Wednesday should not be negatively affected by the weather," according to the weather service.

Temperatures should rise above freezing Tuesday and reach the upper 30s Wednesday, perhaps even the low 40s in the city. But then they'll drop below freezing for a couple of days.

Friday night and Saturday could even see more snow.

"There's another system we're worrying about," said Kines. ". . . Potentially, yeah, it can be an accumulating snow out of this, enough to shovel."

For more on the forecast, go to http://go.philly.com/weather.