Stu Bykofsky: Have happy Dems built a dike against GOP 'wave'?
IT WAS MOSTLY a happy herd of donkeys that gathered around the water hole - before getting the spur from their riders.
IT WAS MOSTLY a happy herd of donkeys that gathered around the water hole - before getting the spur from their riders.
The much-ballyhooed Republican "political wave" that is expected to swamp America on Election Day won't wet our feet because Philadelphia is a Democratic dike. A "red city" for the Phillies, we're back to true blue now.
The main purpose of Monday night's Democratic autumn cocktail party was to inspire ward leaders and their lieutenants to get out the vote next Tuesday. For Dan Onorato to have a shot at being elected governor, and for Joe Sestak to become U.S. senator, Philly Dems must turn out huge numbers.
Enthusiastic Republicans, smelling blood, are expected to run wild in the commonwealth - except here in the southeast pocket, greater Pittsburgh and the blue-island outpost of Centre County, home of Penn State.
The secondary purpose of the party was to provide free food and drink (tickets cost $150, so "free" may be imprecise) and to hear speeches (yawn) from a few candidates. Half of those in the massive union hall updated with pals they hadn't seen since the spring cocktail party, ignoring the candidates.
Two surprises. First, the candidates kept their remarks remarkably brief - Onorato took four minutes, and Sestak used less than half of that, most of it on a joke I thought was, well, maybe inappropriate for Democrats. You be the judge:
A farmer was asked whether, if he had two barns and his neighbor's barn burned down, he would lend his neighbor his second barn? The farmer said yes. What if you had two tractors and your neighbor's tractor broke down. Would you lend him your second tractor? The farmer said yes.
And if you had two cows and your neighbor's cow died, would you lend him one of your cows? The farmer wouldn't answer. He was asked why not.
"Because I do have two cows."
Good joke, but the message?
The other surprise came from Comcast Eagles analyst (and governor) Ed Rendell, who said that Democratic Party Chairman (and congressman) Bob Brady would resign as chairman if Philly voter turnout didn't top 50 percent.
Up next was Mayor Nutter, to scattered boos. (No, not John Street.) Nutter said that he didn't know where Rendell got that Brady brainstorm.
It's doubtful that Philly turnout will surpass 50 percent. Rendell was joking or challenging the faithful. Conspiracy theorists can have fun with it.
Losing Big Bob, the Krazy Glue who holds the fractious party together, is immeasurably less likely than a 50+ percent Philly turnout.
The donkeys were happy because the national "political wave" detected by seismologists about a month ago seemed to be losing momentum, but - oops - today it's back. Sestak trailed Republican candidate Pat Toomey for months, pulled an inch ahead, but now is trailing by 2 points among registered voters. Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Corbett's lead had melted, but now has widened to 12 points among registered voters.
Republicans are favored in most races across the nation and most pundits say that Democrats will retain the U.S. Senate, but lose the House.
A few Dems think they can win by losing.
"It might be good for the crazies to have the House," Mike Boyle, leader of Center City's 5th Ward, told me. "People will see they're nuts and Obama's not so bad."
Republicans scoff that that's just Democrats putting lipstick on a pig, to soften the loss.
When the "wave" was first detected, I think the GOP started drooling and got complacent. The "wave" terrified Democrats into action, and that spurred Republican activity.
In Philly, a 50+ percent turnout is a stretch - and so is a national Democratic victory.
E-mail stubyko@phillynews.com or call 215-854-5977. For recent columns: