John Baer: Dems' stage is set for suicidal grappling, to GOP glee
LAST NIGHT belonged to John McCain. Not only did he secure his party's nomination - "Stand up with me, my friends," he said, "the contest begins tonight" - he also won a rest stop and leg up on Democrats.
LAST NIGHT belonged to John McCain.
Not only did he secure his party's nomination - "Stand up with me, my friends," he said, "the contest begins tonight" - he also won a rest stop and leg up on Democrats.
For that, he has Hillary Clinton to thank.
Clinton's victory in Ohio and strong showing in Texas yesterday should keep her in the race.
That keeps McCain without an opponent and keeps the Clinton/Barack Obama firefight ablaze, which means more good things for McCain since that firefight's suicidal.
For one thing, it forces Democratic voters into a growing gender/race divide with white women voting more for Clinton while blacks and men vote more for Obama - this from a party preaching unity.
It also cranks up a notch an already heated Clinton/Obama rivalry, meaning more resources, time and energy spent tearing each other down.
And, because of party-delegate rules, it sets the stage for ugly confrontations that could pull the party completely asunder.
Can you say 1980 all over again?
Back then Ted Kennedy challenged President Jimmy Carter right through Pennsylvania (which Kennedy won) and went to the convention before conceding, leaving Democrats depleted, depressed and defeated in November.
And, yes, I understand, that was then, this is now and each election is different. But come on.
Clinton could win Pennsylvania big April 22 (on paper it's her kind of state) and still not have the 2,025 delegates needed to win.
The cold fact is Clinton had her chance and blew it. Obama offers a new politics that taps new voters, new donors and new hope.
If Democrats nominate Clinton in Denver on the strength of uncommitted superdelegates (which appears her only shot), then everything Obama brought to the process is cheapened by the process.
And a candidacy carrying the potential of creating more racial accord could end up doing the opposite.
Notre Dame political-science professor Darren Davis, a nationally recognized scholar in voting behavior, tells me there's a danger that African-Americans will see her nomination as stolen from a black man.
"Black folks are already on edge," says Davis. "The longer it goes, the more it becomes a question for blacks because of a sensitivity black folks have to voting procedures."
If Davis is right, that could depress the Democratic vote in November, further helping Republican McCain.
Back in mid-January, which now seems years ago, I wondered if Democrats were on a road to self-destruction.
It seems they are.
Back then, a debate in Nevada opened with six race-related questions, taking up 22 minutes.
The questions mostly played off Clinton comments about Martin Luther King Jr. being a dreamer and Lyndon Johnson being a president who got King's dream done by signing the 1964 Civil Rights Act.
A clearly drawn and insulting distinction: some dream, others do.
Her campaign pushed Obama's admitted youthful drug use. Her husband credited Obama's South Carolina primary win to being black. Cheap shots that didn't work.
What's left is manipulating old-school insider Democrats to buck the will of the Democratic electorate and hand the nomination to a candidate starting a general election race with national "unfavorable" ratings in the mid- to high-40s.
And who do you think benefits from that? *
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