NEW POLL: FATTAH AHEAD, BUT KNOX SURGES

Chaka Fattah is still the leading mayoral candidate among the city's African-American voters, but Tom Knox has gained significant ground over the last six months, according to a poll sponsored by the

Philadelphia Tribune.

The telephone poll, conducted last week by a respected Washington firm, Lester & Associates, asked 400 likely voters, all African-American, whom they would support if the election were held today.

The telephone poll, conducted last week by a respected Washington firm, Lester & Associates, asked 400 likely voters, all African-American, whom they would support if the election were held today.

The results put U.S. Rep. Chaka Fattah in the lead with 27 percent and state Rep. Dwight Evans next with 18 percent, both within a couple of points of what they polled six months ago.

But Knox, who barely registered at 1 percent then, is up to 14 percent in the latest poll, thanks to a TV ad campaign fueled by $5 million of his own money.

Former Councilman Michael Nutter had 9 percent and U.S. Rep. Bob Brady 8 percent, both virtually unchanged since '06.

Nearly a fourth, 24 percent, remain undecided, with just seven weeks before the May 15 primary.

Pollster Ron Lester told reporters that the results were good news for Fattah, who has remained the favorite of African-American voters without yet running any TV commercials.

"He really hasn't fired his shots yet," Lester said. "Just about everybody else has been on TV and he [Fattah] hasn't lost that much.

But the poll was even better news for Knox, Lester said. "Tom Knox is moving so quickly, he's definitely in the driver's seat here," he said. "It would be fair to say that Knox has definitely connected with black voters here."

Results were less positive for Evans, Brady and Nutter, he said.

Both Fattah and Evans had strong favorable ratings - ratios of 7-to-1 favorable to unfavorable - but Evans appears to be lagging in converting that to strong voter support, in spite of some TV ads, Lester said. And he noted that Brady and Nutter had relatively high unfavorable ratings.

Lester said that the recent controversy over Brady's city and carpenters' union pensions, figuring in last week's court case challenging Brady's nominating petition, might have contributed to voter discontent with Brady.

Tribune publisher Robert Bogle speculated that some black voters had reacted negatively to Nutter's suggestion that police should have greater authority to stop and frisk citizens in some circumstances.

Lester said the overall results appear to favor Knox.

"When you have three African-American candidates who each are in double-digits . . . and then you have one white candidate who is emerging as being very strong in a city where racial polarization in terms of voting has long been a factor, it makes it very difficult for one of the black candidates to win," Lester said.*