Our movie critic picks the Oscars

TWO MONTHS ago, picking Oscar winners looked easy - as easy as it looked last year, when I correctly picked the winners of the major categories.

(Of course, so did nearly everybody else, but let's not dwell on that.)

Since then, a couple of things happened, including "American Sniper." The movie won a bunch of nominations, and became a box-office and cultural phenomenon, precisely the kind of movie the Oscars were trying to embrace when the Academy expanded the number of Best Picture nominees.

And Michael Keaton, whom I'd seen as a lock for Best Actor ("Birdman"), started losing pre-Oscar awards races to Eddie Redmayne ("The Theory of Everything").

Suddenly my own personal theory of everything was thrown into chaos.

So, after much thought and careful reconsideration, I've decided to change nothing, and go with my original instincts.

Which are as follows:

BEST PICTURE: The popular vote among moviegoers would surely go to "Sniper," Clint Eastwood's grim, down-the-barrel look at the Iraq war, and his account of the unsung burden of sacrifice borne by those who serve and their families.

But there's a technical, voting-pattern problem here. Eastwood is not nominated as Best Director, and history shows it's virtually impossible for a movie to win without that supporting nomination.

Plus, the movie is divisive (Jane Fonda vs. Michael Moore!), and some who see the movie are convinced it's an imperialist apologia for a botched war, etc. That's enough to sink it, the way the torture debate sank "Zero Dark Thirty."

The big X factor is how late-surging support for "Sniper" might affect what had been a two-horse race between "Boyhood" and "Birdman."

It's worth noting that while many "Sniper" supporters hail it as a rare movie about Flyover America, "Boyhood" director Richard Linklater happens to be the poet laureate of Flyover America. The appeal of his "Boyhood" - beyond its innovative depiction of unfolding time - can be found in its portrait of common folk as we know them today, in our modern world of single moms and weekend dads. It's even friendly toward Texans who love their guns, like "American Sniper."

"Birdman," on the other hand, flatters the creative process, and this is always popular with Academy voters. Remember "Saving Private Ryan" vs. "Shakespeare In Love"? That does not bode well for "Sniper." Or "Boyhood."

But I'm picking "Boyhood," because it's that rare movie wherein innovation is matched by execution, but also out of stubborness.

BEST ACTOR: Here's where things get really interesting. I don't think "Sniper" can win Best Picture, but the one aspect of "Sniper" that prompts widespread agreement is the title-role performance of Bradley Cooper. He took the strident figure in Chris Kyle's own memoir and made him more fully human, reconciling the steely, lethal sniper with the haunted man who couldn't reconnect with his family.

I think there's a real possibility that Cooper could pull an upset win in this category. Especially since Keaton, whose career-achievement advantages should make him the favorite, has been looking weak, losing other acting prizes to Redmayne, whose chances get a boost from the growing European constituency among Academy voters.

However, this just in: Redmayne was recently caught giving a Shatner-esque performance in a bad movie, "Jupiter Ascending."

Enough to inspire buyer's remorse in BAFTA man?

Possibly. And Cooper, like Keaton, may have to make a superhero movie, fall into obscurity and return with a redemptive triumph to win in this category. So I'm still picking Keaton.

BEST ACTRESS: Julianne Moore for playing an Alzheimer's sufferer in "Still Alice." A good performance, but this really looks like a career-capper award for this consistently good and interesting actress. Reese Witherspoon was solid in "Wild," but she's already won.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Patricia Arquette, unbeatable because her performance has come to be seen as synonymous with motherhood. "Boyhood" is a heartfelt tribute to single moms, which Arquette channeled so well.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: J.K. Simmons, the sadistic teacher in "Whiplash." A longtime supporting player finally landing the proverbial role-of-a-lifetime and nailing it.

BEST DIRECTOR: Complex vote splitting is likely here. If "Birdman" wins best picture, then I think Linklater wins for "Boyhood." Or vice versa. Since I believe "Boyhood" wins best picture, "Birdman" helmer Alejandro Gonzales Innaritu wins best director.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "Glory" from "Selma."

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: "Ida" (Poland).

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Writers Guild awards indicate that it will probably be Wes Anderson, for "Grand Budpest Hotel."

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Sometimes it is those whom nobody expects anything of who do the things that no one expects. That's the year's worst and most tortured line, and it's in "The Imitation Game," whose writers are somehow going to win in this category.

CINEMATOGRAPHY: "Birdman."

ORIGINAL SCORE: If anyone asks, just say Alexander Desplat, because he's up for two films.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: "CitizenFour."

BEST ANIMATED FILM: "Song of the Sea," in an upset.