The Smart Money: Some blame NFL rules for giving 'over' wagers an edge

The Eagles' prime-time, jaw-dropping rout of the Washington Redskins may have delighted Birds fans, but it also underscored a trend that has been picking up momentum throughout the NFL wagering world.

The overs have been pulverizing the line over the last month, and while Las Vegas oddsmakers are reluctant to overreact, if it continues they will be forced to rethink that part of the point spread.

The over-under line is simply a combined total number of points that two competing teams are expected to score. Bettors wager whether the teams will go over or under the total.

For instance, the Eagles-Redskins game on Monday had an over-under line of 431/2 to 44 points, depending on the bookmaker. On their way to demolishing the Redskins, 59-28, the Eagles had covered the over by themselves by halftime with 45 points.

Of course, freak games can be written off as anomalies. But last weekend's schedule saw the overs go 11-3, and in the last month, the overs have prevailed, 44-24. For the season, the overs have won, 84-59.

For a historical perspective, the unders led the overs last year, 133-118, with five pushes, and the year before, it was the overs with the slightest edge, 124-122, with 10 pushes, according to covers.com, a website that provides wagering information and statistics.

Often when there's a lopsided edge to any betting side, whether it's favorites or underdogs or, in this instance, overs and under, oddsmakers and bookmakers will dismiss the outcomes as short-term swings that will balance out. However, Mike Seba of Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the company that provides wagering odds to casinos, thinks there is more than just statistical variance at work here.

"The rules changes have all favored the offense," Seba said. "These changes didn't all happen at once; they've come in phases, and I think teams have learned how to take advantage."

Caesars Palace sports analyst Todd Fuhrman echoed Seba, saying: "The NFL pass-interference rule is ridiculous. If you have a jump ball on a long pass, the defender can't put his hands anywhere without getting called."

Seba said it was apparent from the season's early stages that the winning edge for the overs was more than happenstance.

"When you looked at the overs that were covering, it was by a lot," he said. "And when you looked at the unders that won, it was by just a little."

The over-under line can be especially sensitive for bookmakers because bettors prefer to take the over; it's simply the natural inclination of fans to root for offense and scoring.

"It seems like every nationally televised game on Sunday and Monday nights is an over," said Caesars' Fuhrman. "We can't get one of those under to save our lives."

Plus, an over bet is one of the few wagers a bettor can make and start counting his money before the game is even over.

Last weekend featured a handful of no-sweat outcomes for the over crowd. Denver and Kansas City scored a combined 45 points by halftime in a game that was a 441/2-point O/U, and Cleveland and the New York Jets had a combined 30 by halftime in a 37-point O/U that finished at a total of 46.

"As an oddsmaker and a bettor, I look for unders," Seba said, "and I've looked at this and I've decided you just can't play the under in the NFL because it's too easy to score and too easy to score late touchdowns."

Seba pointed out that the NFL always has been driven by its desire to appeal to TV audiences, but lately the league also has recognized and is satisfying the enormous appetite for offensive statistics and scoring created by fantasy football.

"That's the way it is now and will be for the foreseeable future," Seba said.

As always, the oddsmakers and bookmakers will find a way to adjust. So the over bettors had better enjoy it while it lasts.