Will more Americans hit the road this Memorial Day and through the summer, taking advantage of cheaper gasoline prices, low airfares, and hotel discounts?

Or will the stalled economy, rising unemployment, and falling home prices outweigh the urge to get out of Dodge?

Auto club AAA is projecting that 32.4 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home over the Memorial Day holiday, an uptick of 1.5 percent over last year's 31.9 million travelers.

Yet AAA estimates that 2.6 percent fewer Philadelphia-area residents will venture 50 miles or more for the holiday.

The reason? It has nothing to do with the economy or jobs. The weather was so extraordinarily perfect last Memorial Day weekend that throngs of spontaneous travelers took to the roads, bumping up the travel numbers.

AAA projects that 3.4 percent fewer Pennsylvania and New Jersey residents will take trips over the coming four-day weekend.

"When we did this year's projections, we couldn't factor in the weather - we had no idea," said travel researcher Ken McGill, who uses a combination of surveys and economic models to make AAA's forecast.

"If we have a perfect weather weekend, that may entice a lot of travelers into the mix who wouldn't otherwise go," overturning the projections, said McGill, head of travel and tourism services for Boston-based IHS Global Insight Inc. in Eddystone.

For the summer as a whole, the negative economy will likely mean a slight decline, about 2 percent, in summer travel, McGill said.

But pundits are mistaken if they think that in tough economic times Americans view their vacations as a luxury. The truth is, they see it as an absolute necessity.

"They'll do without food before they do without a vacation. Research shows us that time and time again," McGill said.

With one caveat: There's 8.9 percent unemployment, and many out of work may not have a choice. Still others worry about their jobs and don't feel confident enough to take a vacation, he said.

With the recession, people are changing their travel behavior, experts say: staying closer to home, opting to drive instead of fly, spending less money, and staying fewer nights in lower-tier hotels.

Catherine Rossi, spokeswoman for AAA Mid-Atlantic, said the message in the research was clear: Americans do not want to miss their vacations two years in a row. "There is pent-up demand."

Indeed, a recent stroll through Love Park in Center City found people still planning to get away:

"A vacation is an American right," said legal secretary Terry Novack, from Northeast Philadelphia. "We deserve it."

Novack, 55, and her husband spend a week in Myrtle Beach, S.C., every summer. "The economy will not stop us," she said.

Her husband searched the Internet for hotel deals and found lodging for $400 less than they paid last year. She attributes the better price to the tanking economy.

Jenkintown reinsurance broker Steve Kinniry, 57, will continue the tradition of a camping trip with 40 fathers and their offspring over Memorial Day weekend.

Come August, Kinniry and his family will spend a week in Ocean City. "We take our same spot every year," he said. "We're not going to give it up now."