Memorial Day travel should mirror last year's

Will more Americans hit the road this Memorial Day and through the summer, taking advantage of cheaper gasoline prices, low airfares, and hotel discounts?

Or will the stalled economy, rising unemployment, and falling home prices outweigh the urge to get out of Dodge?

Auto club AAA is projecting that 32.4 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home over the Memorial Day holiday, an uptick of 1.5 percent over last year's 31.9 million travelers.

Yet AAA estimates that 2.6 percent fewer Philadelphia-area residents will venture 50 miles or more for the holiday.

The reason? It has nothing to do with the economy or jobs. The weather was so extraordinarily perfect last Memorial Day weekend that throngs of spontaneous travelers took to the roads, bumping up the travel numbers.

AAA projects that 3.4 percent fewer Pennsylvania and New Jersey residents will take trips over the coming four-day weekend.

"When we did this year's projections, we couldn't factor in the weather - we had no idea," said travel researcher Ken McGill, who uses a combination of surveys and economic models to make AAA's forecast.

"If we have a perfect weather weekend, that may entice a lot of travelers into the mix who wouldn't otherwise go," overturning the projections, said McGill, head of travel and tourism services for Boston-based IHS Global Insight Inc. in Eddystone.

For the summer as a whole, the negative economy will likely mean a slight decline, about 2 percent, in summer travel, McGill said.

But pundits are mistaken if they think that in tough economic times Americans view their vacations as a luxury. The truth is, they see it as an absolute necessity.

"They'll do without food before they do without a vacation. Research shows us that time and time again," McGill said.

With one caveat: There's 8.9 percent unemployment, and many out of work may not have a choice. Still others worry about their jobs and don't feel confident enough to take a vacation, he said.

With the recession, people are changing their travel behavior, experts say: staying closer to home, opting to drive instead of fly, spending less money, and staying fewer nights in lower-tier hotels.

Catherine Rossi, spokeswoman for AAA Mid-Atlantic, said the message in the research was clear: Americans do not want to miss their vacations two years in a row. "There is pent-up demand."

Indeed, a recent stroll through Love Park in Center City found people still planning to get away:

"A vacation is an American right," said legal secretary Terry Novack, from Northeast Philadelphia. "We deserve it."

Novack, 55, and her husband spend a week in Myrtle Beach, S.C., every summer. "The economy will not stop us," she said.

Her husband searched the Internet for hotel deals and found lodging for $400 less than they paid last year. She attributes the better price to the tanking economy.

Jenkintown reinsurance broker Steve Kinniry, 57, will continue the tradition of a camping trip with 40 fathers and their offspring over Memorial Day weekend.

Come August, Kinniry and his family will spend a week in Ocean City. "We take our same spot every year," he said. "We're not going to give it up now."

Paralegal Steve Spadaro, 26, from Northeast Philadelphia, will spend Memorial Day weekend on a golf course, "like I always do." In early June, he will vacation in Las Vegas.

"I'm not going to let the economy bother my travel plans," he said. "I spend all year working, so one week to myself isn't so bad."

Stephen Fierro, 28, from South Philadelphia, took advantage of the souring economy in December and bought a small vacation cabin in Oneonta, N.Y., where he will be Memorial Day and whenever he can this summer.

"I got a really good deal because of the economy," said Fierro, a paralegal for a large law firm. "The economy is not really affecting me; I'm actually busier. It's just trying to find time to go on vacation."

Fierro's sister, Jessica, 21, a senior at Temple University, said that if she could fit in a vacation, it would be "probably a series of day trips to the Shore."

She is a restaurant hostess and is trying to get a second job, but good receptionist and office posts are hard to come by. "I am competing with college graduates."

The Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission expects close to 2 million vehicles will be on the state's toll roads tomorrow through Monday, up from 1.5 million last year.

"Cheaper gas prices certainly play into it," said spokesman Carl DeFabo. "Gas prices were almost $4 a gallon at this time last year."

Yesterday, gasoline prices averaged $2.37 a gallon in the Philadelphia region.

Cheaper gasoline should be good news for the Jersey Shore. Last Memorial Day weekend, trips on the Atlantic City Expressway soared 25 percent - 871,000 compared with 700,000 the Memorial Day before.

"I think we're going to see something similar this year," said David Weinstein, AAA Clubs of New Jersey spokesman. "Last year, gas prices were the factor. This year, obviously it is the economy."

Holiday weekend travel of 50 miles or more from home is expected to be little changed this year nationally. Mode and number of people traveling:

In U.S.               in 2009         % change from 2008

By car               27 million            +2.5%

By air                  2.1 million              -1.0

In Phila. region*

By car               266,000                -1.9

By air                  19,000                -11.3

*Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia Counties.

SOURCE: AAAEndText