The future of winter: Warmth aside, snow remains in forecast rest of the century
Winters have trended warmer, snowstorms bigger.
Unless February turns profoundly cold, and computer guidance suggests that won't happen, the winter of 2016-17 will end up in the above-normal column for temperature.
That would track with the 30-year trend for Philadelphia: Official temperatures have averaged about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th Century average.
And that's almost 4 degrees warmer than the cool 30-year period that ended in 1980. Half of the 10 warmest winters on record have occurred since then, coinciding with worldwide warming trend.
Yet, all of Philadelphia's top 5 biggest snowfalls also have occurred since then.
A paradox? No, say those who track climate for a living. While global temperatures might continue to increase, they assure that it's not going to stop snowing during the lifetime of anyone reading this.
"it's certain that snowstorms will not be going away anytime soon," so says an article posted on climate.gov that we highly recommend.
It offers a refreshingly dispassionate analysis of what is known – and not known – about how a changing climate might affect snowfall.
The explanation for the amped- up storms "remains elusive," the article cautions. But it also notes that that an increase in water vapor could be fueling more storm-enhancing evaporation.
That especially could have affected the winter coastal storms that have generated profound amounts of snow around here and elsewhere in the Northeast in recent winters.
And if not this time, that might well be a factor in a winter to be named later.
Ten Biggest Snowfalls in Philadelphia
30.7, Jan. 7-8, 1996
28.5, Feb. 5-6, 2010
23.2, Dec. 19-20, 2009
22.4, Jan. 22-23, 2016
21.3, Feb. 11-12, 1983
21, Dec. 25-26, 1909
19.4, April 3-4, 1915
18.9, Feb. 12-14, 1899.
18.7, Feb. 16-17, 2003
16.7 inches, Jan. 22-24, 1935