Sunday, October 4, 2015

Presidents Day storm threat?

Still only virtual, but something significant and tantalizingly close, is possible..

Presidents Day storm threat?

Another kind of European model
Another kind of European model AP

The respected European forecast model continues to show the potential for a strong storm to form in the Southeast during the hoilday weekend, and that could threaten Philadelphia.

That's still several days away, and arguing against it eloquently is the feeble character of the winter of 2011-12.

That said, it is getting buzz in the chat board discussions, and it is on the radar of some of the region's meteorologists.

The Southeast coast is the brewing ground for the Midatlantic's major snowstorms since it offers a supply of moisture and allows the Washington-New York corridor to stay on the cold side of the precipitation.

In the overnight National Weather Service discussion, Walt Drag says that even if it does happen, it may end up being just "a close call."

For now though, he says that it "deserves to be monitored" and that it is at least "plausible."

Presidents Day weekend holds a special place for the region's snow-lovers. In 1979, Philadelphia was ambushed with a 14-inch snowstorm, and 20 inches fell during the holiday weekend of 2003.

Hold off on the panic, however. The temperatures look to be borderline, and it's not at all certain how much of any precipitation would be snow, or how much of it would stick.

And Drag notes that the European storm doesn't seem to be in sync with its own projected upper-air pattern -- "nor does it fit the winter to date."

Inquirer Weather Columnist
About this blog

Everyone talks about the weather, and here we write about it.

When we’re around and conditions warrant, we’ll keep you updated about what’s coming, but we will do our best always to discuss weather and climate developments in context and remind you that nothing in the atmosphere happens in a vacuum.

Tony Wood has been writing about the atmosphere for The Inquirer for 26 years.

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Tony Wood Inquirer Weather Columnist