Government winter outlook has warm look

Predictably the winter outlook that the government's Climate Prediction Center issued Wednesday was short on specifics.

But the overarching theme is the lack of blue (for cold) on the forecast map. Not a single patch of blue appears in the contiguous 48 states or Alaska.

The climate center says that above-normal temperatures are favored in the majority of the nation, including the entire East.

The forecast anticipates the emergence of a weak La Niña, a cooling of surface waters in the tropical Pacific, says Mike Halpert, the center's acting director.

It also takes into account Atlantic temperatures,  how past seasons behaved during similar circumstances, and numerical-model guidance.

It does not address such mighty issues of just how-much-above normal temperatures would be, nor how much snow will or won't fall where.

The forecast ambiguity might not be everyone's cup of tea, but the government forecast is "objective" and constrained by the limits of what is known about the science of seasonal prediction.

Based on the past performance of seasonal outlooks issued by various commercial services, in this business caution never should be thrown to the wind.

At the opposite end of the ambiguity spectrum, we took a peek at AccuWeather's day-by-day 90-day outlook.

Of note, it calls for 1.1 inches of snow on Christmas Eve.