NFL Week 9 Analysis

KANSAS CITY @ JACKSONVILLE
The Jaguars do one thing well which is hand the ball off to Maurice Jones-Drew. The Chiefs are 26th defending the run and Jones-Drew has a 57 percent chance of rushing for at least 85 yards and 1 rushing TD. If MJD hits these levels the Jags are heavy 86 percent favorites. The Chiefs can upset Jacksonville if they hold MJD to under 100 rushing yards while also getting 80+ from Jamaal Charles, who should start over the suspended Larry Johnson. The Chiefs have a 70 percent chance if Charles goes for 80+ yards and MJD is under 100 yards.

BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI
The Bengals will look to once again have Cedric Benson run wild while getting clutch 3rd down conversions from Carson Palmer. If Benson averages 4.5 ypc (46 percent chance) and Palmer passes for at least 250 yards the Bengals are favored with a 55 percent chance. However, if the Ravens defense can repeat the success they had vs the Broncos and hold Benson to under 4 ypc while also interception Carson Palmer at least once the Ravens are 74 percent road favorites.

HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS
The Texans cannot afford to have Steve Slaton fumble the ball and in simulations where Ryan Moats is featured the Texans win 19 percent vs just 15 percent when Slaton is the #1 RB. The Texans will need a huge game from Matt Schaub and the defense needs to harass Peyton Manning all game. If Schaub has a 2+ TDs, 0 INTs while the defense sacks Manning at least 3 times the Texans have a 50 percent chance of winning. However, if the Texans turn the ball over even once and Manning is sacked less than twice the Texans have just a 13 percent chance.

WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA
The Redskins offense turns the ball over too much to have a chance at upsetting Atlanta. Jason Campbell is averaging 1.3 interceptions and lost fumbles per simulation vs just 0.8 for Matt Ryan. For Washington to pull off the upset they need to be at least +2 in turnover margin. While there is only an 8 percent chance that Atlanta turns it over two more times than Washington, the Redskins have a 60 percent chance if they do. Michael Turner is averaging over 100 rushing yards and 1 TD while Clinton Portis is projected for under 70 rushing yards with just a 20 percent chance of scoring a TD.

GREEN BAY @ TAMPA BAY
Aaron Rodgers is expected to play, but if he is not healthy the Packers chances drop to 65 percent. The Packers should easily win because Tampa Bay will have rookie Josh Freeman starting and the Packers are 4th in the league in interceptions. If Freeman has 2+ INTs (35 percent chance) then Tampa Bay has a slim 9 percent chance. If Freeman throws no more than 1 INT and Cadillac Williams has a big game with at least 75 rushing yards TB is a slight 52 percent favorite. There is just an 18 percent chance of this scenario happening.

ARIZONA @ CHICAGO
The Cardinals run defense was ranked #1 heading into Week 8, but after Carolina ran over them they are now just 9th against the run. Matt Forte has struggled most of the season, but if can have a second straight game with at least 75 rushing yards Chicago is the 79 percent favorite winning by a score of CHI 30, ARI 20. However, if the Cardinals run defense holds Forte to under 4 ypc and Jay Cutler throws at least 1 INT, the Cardinals are 52 percent favorites.

MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND
The Dolphins would love to have the success with the Wildcat that they had last year when they unveiled it at New England. The Patriots are expected to contain the Dolphins running game and Brown and Williams are averaging just a shade over 100 rushing yards on 4.3 ypc. The RBs have a 37 percent chance of averaging over 5 ypc and if they do the Dolphins are just a 42 percent underdog. Tom Brady should have a big game against the Dolphins and he is projected for 270 passing yards and 2 TDs. If the Dolphins can run for over 5 ypc and intercept Brady at least once Miami has a 50.1 percent chance of shocking the Patriots.

CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS
Carolina finally played well last week and they will need to not only run the ball very well, but also force multiple Drew Brees interceptions. If the Panthers RBs average over 6 yards per carry and intercept Drew Brees 2 or more times the Panthers have a 50 percent chance of winning. However, if the Panthers run for under 125 yards they have just an 8 percent chance of beating the Saints. Drew Brees has a simulation passer rating of over 105 and the running game is averaging over 130 yards rushing.

DETROIT @ SEATTLE
Matt Hasselbeck should have a big game and he has 5 different receivers averaging at least 2 receptions per simulation. There is a 47 percent chance that Hasselbeck has 250+ yards and 2+ TDs and if he does Seattle is virtually a sure thing with an 80 percent chance of winning. The Lions defense only has 5 interceptions this year, but if they can pick off Hasselbeck at least once they improve their chances from 24 to 34 percent. If they can force at least 3 Seattle turnovers the Lions have a fighting 47 percent chance.

TENNESSEE @ SAN FRANCISCO
The 49ers defense is allowing just 3.2 ypc and if they hold Chris Johnson to under 4 ypc the 49eres are heavy 74 percent favorites. Frank Gore is also an explosive RB and if Tennessee can hold him to under 100 rushing yards the Titans pull even with a 50 percent chance of winning. However, if both RBs have under 100 yards the 49ers are still the 63 percent favorite because Alex Smith has close to a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio while Vince Young has just a 1 to 1 TD to INT ratio.

SAN DIEGO @ NEW YORK
The Giants pass defense has been obliterated the past 3 weeks vs the Saints, Cardinals and Eagles. They play another Top notch passing offense in San Diego. If the Giants cannot pressure Philip Rivers and he is sacked two times or less then the Chargers are actually the 61 percent favorite with Rivers going for at least 2 TDs and 250+ yards. If the Giants sack Rivers 4 or more times the Giants are the heavy 67 percent favorites. The Giants need Eli Manning to eliminate turnovers. If Manning throws no INTs the Giants go from winning just 51 percent to nearly 66 percent.

DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA
On paper these are two very similar teams with dynamic, young WRs and hot QBs. The Cowboys have the edge in the running game and if Dallas averages over 5 ypc the Cowboys are the 63 percent favorite. However, if the Eagles hold the Cowboys to under 4 ypc Philadelphia is the heavy 70 percent favorite. Donovan McNabb is projected to have an excellent game with 2 TDs and 250 yards passing. If Dallas can do what the Giants could not do which is sack McNabb 4 or more times Dallas is favored winning 56 percent of these simulations.

PITTSBURGH @ DENVER
The Broncos offense could not get anything going vs the Ravens and they face a similar defense this week. The Steelers are favored because they are running the ball better with Rashard Mendenhall averaging 4.5 ypc and Knowshon Moreno is averaging just 3.5 ypc. Despite this overall edge there is a 50 percent chance that Moreno can outperform Mendenhall. If he does Denver is the 57 percent favorite. Denver also needs Elvis Dumervil to sack Ben Roethlisberger. If Roethlisberger is sacked 4 or more times Denver is the 52 percent favorite, but if Roethlisberger is sacked under 4 times Pittsburgh is the 68 percent favorite.