Week 3 NFL picks

Here are my Week 3 NFL picks, for the degenerate gamblers.

Here was my pick Thursday night:

And then the Falcons jumped out to a 56-0 lead in the third quarter. The Bucs are the worst team in the NFC.

Here are a pair of teams I really like this season, particularly the Chargers, who are getting outstanding QB play from the absurdly underrated Philip Rivers. The Bills have a lot of intangibles working in their favor:

• They're much better at home than they are on the road.

• The Chargers have to make that dreaded West coast to East coast trip for a 1pm game.

• The Chargers are coming off a game against the physical Seahawks.

Still, I don't understand the line here. Using the "three points to the home team" theory, the 2.5 point spread would indicate that the oddsmakers think the Chargers are only marginally better than the Bills. While I like the Bills, I just don't see it that way. The Chargers may be a a top 5-10 kind of team this season with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. I'll take them to win outright.

The Cowboys seem to be just competent enough to beat the worst teams in the NFL, thus ensuring another mediocre season, and a draft pick outside the top 10. That is pretty much a worst case scenario for a team who could really benefit from drafting an elite QB or defensive prospect.

They'll face third string QB Austin Davis this week.

We can talk all day about DeSean Jackson's impact on the Redskins or Eagles, but for me, this matchup is simple -- The Eagles have a more talented roster and coaching staff than the Redskins.

The Texans are running the ball on 66.1% of their snaps this season, and only averaging 3.8 yards per carry. That makes sense for a team starting Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, but is not a sustainable way of winning over a 16-game season. However, it's a formula that should work against the Giants. Play ball control offense and wait for the Giants to make mistakes when they have the ball.

The Saints don't play a team that had a winning record in 2013 until Week 8, and their first three opponents combined for a 13-35-1 record last year.

And yet, New Orleans is still searching  their first win of the season. They'll get it this week against a hopeless AP-less Vikings team.

Watching the Titans looking completely inept against an awful Cowboys defense last week confirmed to me that the Titans are not a good football team.

The Browns have not yet turned the ball over this season. While that is clearly unsustainable, the Browns have been impressive nevertheless. The Ravens are a good team on reputation only.

The Panthers were able to shut down the Lions' offense last week. The Packers' crappy defense will not fare as well.

The Colts are perhaps the most overrated team in the NFL, but the Jaguars are the worst team in the NFL. (Apologies to the Raiders).

If you don't take the Patriots in your survivor pool, you're an idiot. Don't be a hero.

The Cardinals were terrified to let Drew Stanton throw last week. They played ball control offense, waited for the Giants to make mistakes, and capitalized. That won't work against the Niners.

I do believe the Seahawks are the best team in the NFL. I don't, however, believe they are the juggernaut people make them out to be. Peyton gets a small taste of revenge today.

The Dolphins are the lesser of two evils here. Last year the Chiefs started 9-0. This year they might start 0-6.

I'll repeat this every week: The Steelers stink. This -3.5 line is a steal.

The Jets are finally getting a little respect, as they are three point faves over the Bears. My guess is that people will be betting the Bears heavily in this one. That's a mistake. The Bears can't stop the run, and the Jets are the #1 rushing offense in the league.

Season record: 7-1.Yeah, that's right-- I'm the bomb, son.

Jets -3, Niners -3, Panthers -3.5, Broncos +5, Chargers +2.5.

» READ MORE: @PhillyKelly

Buffalo Chicken Mac & Cheese

Aaaaand.... this is pretty awesome:

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