Monday, August 31, 2015

Crunchy Numbers Week 8

Temple is a win away from bowl eligibility, while Penn seeks its first win over Brown in five years.

Crunchy Numbers Week 8


With all due respect to Penn State, the biggest game of this weekend is probably Temple at Navy. The Owls are a win away from becoming bowl eligible for the first time since they won seven games in 1990. They haven't actually played in a bowl game since beating California, 28-15, in the 1979 Garden State Bowl at Giants Stadium.

If Temple really does end up in a bowl game, I will go into the Inquirer and Daily News archives and get the stories from that game.

The other big game this weekend is Penn's trip to Brown, where the QUakers haven't won since 2003. The Quakers haven't beaten the Bears at all since 2004. Sagarin has both those streaks ending Saturday by a narrow margin, which surprises me.

It will be almost entirely on Penn's defensive backfield to win this game. Brown ranks No. 7 in the FCS with an average of 290 passing yards per game. If Chris Wynn and Jonathan Moore can do something about that, Quakers quarterback Kyle Olson will have a chance to put points on the board going in the other direction.

While Brown ranks 21st in rushing defense, allowing 98.33 yards per game, the Bears are 105th in passing defense at 243.67 yards per game.

The Penn-Brown game will not be televised, but I will be in Providence to cover the game for the Inquirer. Kickoff is at 12:30 p.m., and I'll try to provide some live coverage here on the blog.

13. Penn State (21)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 34/46 Michigan, 35-10
This week: 10/31 at No. 98 Northwestern, 4:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Sagarin predicts: Penn State by 17 (84.76 to 65.12 and 3)

54. Villanova (58)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 200/197 Rhode Island, 36-7
This week: No game

68. Rutgers (78)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 141/144 Army, 27-10
This week: 10/31 at No. 52 Connecticut, 12:00 p.m. (WPVI-6,
Sagarin predicts: Connecticut by 7 (73.72 and 3 to 70.12)

76. Temple (97)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 104/117 Toledo, 40-22
This week: 10/31 at No. 45 Navy, 3:30 p.m. (CBS College Sports)
Sagarin predicts: Navy by 10 (75.91 and 3 to 68.63)

87. Delaware (86)
Last week: No game
This week: 10/31 vs. No. 137 James Madison, 12:00 p.m. (Comcast Network)
Sagarin predicts: Delaware by 13 (66.92 and 3 to 56.66)

142. Lafayette (136)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 194/190 Fordham, 26-21
This week:
10/31 vs. No. 239 Bucknell, 1:00 p.m. (RCN-4 or RCN-8, WBPH-60)
Sagarin predicts: Lafayette by 31 (55.49 and 3 to 27.87)

149. Penn (150)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 196/191 Yale, 9-0
This week: 10/31 at No. 165 Brown, 12:30 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Penn by 1 (54.22 to 50.09 and 3)

184. Delaware State (188)
Last week: Home win vs. No. 178/194 Morgan State, 35-22
This week: 10/31 at No. 114 South Carolina State, 1:30 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: South Carolina State by 20 (61.76 and 3 to 45.21)

220. Lehigh (225)
Last week: Road win vs. No. 233/239 Bucknell, 35-16
This week: 10/31 at No. 161 Colgate, 1:00 p.m. (WFMZ-69, Fox College Sports)
Sagarin predicts: Colgate by 17 (50.87 and 3 to 36.66)

227. Princeton (236)
Last week: Road loss vs. No. 172/160 Harvard, 37-3
This week: 10/31 vs. No. 215 Cornell, 1:00 p.m.
Sagarin predicts: Cornell by 5 (37.97 to 32.08 and 3)

239. Bucknell (233)
Last week: Home loss vs. No. 225/220 Lehigh, 35-16
This week: 10/31 at No. 142 Lafayette, 1:00 p.m. (RCN-4 or RCN-8, WBPH-60)
Sagarin predicts: Lafayette by 31 (55.49 and 3 to 27.87)
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Soft Pretzel Logic is's college sports blog, with a primary focus on the University of Pennsylvania. You'll also see coverage of the Big 5, other major college sports events in the region, and the annual Penn Relays track and field meet.

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