In Torrey Smith, the Eagles snag Kenny Stills for half the price
As is often the case in NFL free agency, final judgment depends on the actual numbers. But if the reported value of the contracts awarded to Torrey Smith and Kenny Stills turn out to be an accurate reflection of their annual cost, the Eagles will have scored an early victory in a signing period that has yet to even officially begin.
For half the price that the Dolphins paid to retain Stills, the Eagles landed an identical player.
No doubt, Smith heads into his 28-year-old season with plenty to prove, having been released by the 49ers after a season in which he caught just 20 passes for 267 yards in 12 games. But San Francisco in 2016 was the kind of place that could sap the will to live from the hearts of men much stronger than Smith, a respected veteran who won a Super Bowl ring in his second year in the league. You try catching passes from Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick and see how it turns out.
The odds seem pretty decent that Smith can still be the same player he always was, because that player made his living on his straight-line speed and acceleration. Scouting isn't a science, but it's pretty easy to tell if a guy still has the same wheels, particularly when one of the guys scouting him was part of the front office that drafted him (Joe Douglas was with the Ravens in 2011).
That's not an argument that Smith will suddenly reward the Eagles with a season like the one he posted in 2013, when he emerged as more than just a deep threat, catching 65 passes on 137 targets for 1,128 yards. Remember, this is a market-based evaluation, and if this current market really did value a player such as Stills at $8 million year, then Smith could prove to be a hell of a bargain. Because, up until last year, Torrey Smith was Kenny Stills.
Smith, 2015: 3.9 targets/game, 2.1 rec/g, 41.4 yds/g, 20.1 yds/rec
Stills, 2015: 3.9 targets/game, 1.7 rec/g, 27.5 yds/g, 16.3 yds/rec
Averages per 16 games
Smith, 2011-15: 99 targets, 49 rec, 851 yds, 7 TDs, 17.3 yds/rec
Stills, 2013-16: 70 tartgets, 42 rec, 695 yards, 5 TD, 16.7 yards/rec
Granted, Stills will be 25 this season, while Smith will be 28. But wouldn't you rather have a guy hoping to get back on track versus a guy who has yet to even get on for the first time? Stills has never had more than 83 targets in a season, and he had a whopping 42 catches last year, which is only 15 more than Smith had while playing with absolute bunk at quarterback. In his four years with the Ravens, Smith never had fewer than 92 targets in a season.
Besides, the contract Kenny Britt signed with the Browns suggests the Eagles made a wise play even when considering Smith's age. Britt is a year older than Smith, and while he has a physical presence that Smith does not, and while he has always profiled as more of a potential No. 1 receiver, the reality is that he entered last season in straits similar to those Smith currently finds himself in.
Kenny Britt, 2013-15: 25-27 years old, 4.0 tgs/g, 2.2 rec/g, 34.7 yds/g, 16.1 yds/rec
Torrey Smith, 2014-16: 25-27 years old, 4.6 tgts/g, 2.3 rec/g, 38.6 yds/g, 16.6 yds/rec
Again, though, this isn't an argument that Smith > Britt or Smith > Stills. Both Britt and Stills have more upside than Smith. At 29, Britt might finally become the player everybody anticipated when he averaged 42 catches, 738 yards, 6 TDs, and a whopping 17.6 YPC in his first two seasons in the league before becoming his own worst enemy. Given his youth, Stills might have a season in him like the one Smith gave the Ravens in 2013. At this point, we know Torrey Smith's ceiling.
But this isn't an argument that Smith would be the pick in a context-neutral draft-type situation. The question is whether the odds favor Smith's returning to become the player he more or less was from age 22-26, or whether the odds favor Stills' becoming something more than that. And, whatever the answer to the first part, how many millions of dollars would you be willing to bet?
Given the Eagles' cap situation, their wager on Smith and the under makes perfect sense.