Timmy Jernigan has huge upside in Eagles scheme, but can they sign him? | David Murphy

We're not going to use the word "collaboration," because you'll hear it more than you can stomach if this move works out, but the Eagles' trade for Timmy Jernigan really is a good example of how Jeffery Lurie's You + Me = Us front office is allegedly supposed to work. It's also a good example of how Joe Douglas could be every bit the talent evaluator Lurie thinks he is and the Eagles still end up making a bad decision that hampers their efforts to build a contending roster.

The wisdom of the Jernigan move depends on two entirely different variables:

1) Jernigan's ability to replace Bennie Logan at DT2.

2) The Eagles' ability to sign Jernigan to a contract extension that keeps the soon-to-be free agent with the team at a reasonable price.

In all likelihood, we'll find out the answer to No. 2 before we find out the answer to No. 1, because Jernigan is scheduled to hit free agency after this season, which means the Eagles will need to lock him up to a contract extension this summer. It does no good to wait until Jernigan "proves" himself, because by that point he might as well finish out the season and hit the open market. If that happens, the Eagles will have sacrificed 25 slots in the third round — essentially converting their third-round pick into a fourth-round pick — for 16 games of Jernigan, and any Logan replacement for future seasons will either end up coming at market price or from someone other than Jernigan, both of which options they would've had even if they hadn't sacrificed 25 slots of draft position in the third round.

This is what I mean when I say that Joe Douglas could do a bang-up job in his role as chief personnel evaluator and the Eagles could still end up making all the wrong decisions. Douglas could claim that Jernigan is the second coming of Warren Sapp, and he could turn out to be right, and Jernigan could finish 2017 with 15 sacks, but if the Eagles haven't signed him to an extension, they'll be in a position where they either have to franchise him and head into 2018 with $32 million allocated to the defensive tackle position (Cox at $17.9, Jernigan at $14-ish), or sign him to a market rate extension that still leaves them with $28 million or so worth of DTs, or go back to the drawing board.

That's obviously the upper bound of the hypotheticals that could play out, but it offers a pretty clear crystallization of the calculus involved in evaluating the trade. As the Patriots frequently show in trading away stars like Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins, the question is never, "Is the player good?" Rather, it's, "Does the player make sense?"

My sense is that Jernigan could end up making a great deal of sense, and that the Eagles wouldn't have ended up making the deal if they didn't think they could sign him to a reasonable extension prior to the season. Or, at least, they shouldn't have made the deal if they didn't think they could do so.

What's reasonable? The upper bound would have to be something similar to the contract Nick Fairley signed with the Saints, which will turn out to be a two-year, $14 million deal with the cap hit spread out over three years or a three-year, $23 million contract with the cap hit spread out over four years. That's still a lot of money to spend on one position. Only the Bills (Marcel Dareus/Kyle Williams $25 mil combined) and Panthers (Kawann Short/Star Lotulelei $20 mil combined) would come close to the $22 mil+ the Eagles would end up spending on their DT1 and DT2.

Again, the Eagles sacrificed 25 spots of draft position in exchange for two things: 16 games of DT2, and the chance to sign a DT2 for better value than they'd get on the FA market. The terms of any contract extension will play as important a role in evaluating the trade as what Jernigan does on the field.

Now, here are three of the reasons why this could end up being a shrewd move:

1) Jernigan could have vast amounts of untapped potential in his 6-2, 299-pound frame. He'll turn just 25 in September (for perspective, Fairley was 21 months older at the start of his 4th NFL season), and he never really had a natural role in Baltimore. An All-American out of Florida State in 2014, Jernigan was projected as more of a one-gap 4-3 tackle than a 3-4 nose. He suffered a pretty significant fall in the draft, part of which may have had to do with a failed drug test at the combine, and then spent his first year-and-a-half in the NFL struggling to find a role in the Ravens' mixed front, where the only consistent feature is the presence of a 3-4 style nose tackle, a role filled primarily by Brandon Williams and Haloti Ngata Jernigan's first couple of seasons. Late in 2015 the Ravens finally seemed to find a role for Jernigan, who was their best interior pass-rusher and spent most of his time lining up over guard. Watch him in last year's game against the Eagles and you can see the variety of different roles the Ravens' used him in. Left guard, right guard, spelling Williams over center — Jernigan was everywhere. But, again, his natural role was always believed to be in a 4-3, and he hasn't had a chance to play in an attacking one-gap style since college. He'll get that chance in Schwartz's defense.

2) The one thing you notice lingering between the lines in quotes about Jernigan are questions about his consistency. He spent most of his rookie season playing behind Ngata and Williams, but he also spent the first half of 2015 playing behind a rookie third-round pick after missing some practice in training camp with a knee injury. Then, at the end of last season, he saw his playing time drop again, despite the fact that the Ravens were in the playoff hunt.

John Harbaugh in December of 2015: "Timmy is explosive. He's powerful. He's a good mix of power and explosion. Every week, he's playing a little harder. He's really starting to get a feel for turning that motor up a notch every single week, and I think he can keep doing it. I think he has a couple more notches in him as far as energy level because he's talented."

Ravens defensive coordinator Dean Pees in December of 2015: "I think he's very active. The thing of it is, now he'll do some things that we'll be like, 'Oh, wow,' but it sometimes turns out pretty good. That happens sometimes with guys like him. The thing about him I like is his energy and what he's bringing to the table, because he plays hard, plays fast.

"The other thing is, I think we've found a role for him a little bit, which I think he likes and has been good at. He has really bought into that. We're rolling a lot of guys — as we always do — up front there. I think he has really come on in the last few games."

One can certainly envision a scenario in which Jernigan was never in an optimal scheme for his talents.

Guys who are at the top end of the passion spectrum sometimes can have that work against them if they aren't in a role where they feel like they can do their best work.

Brandon Williams on Jernigan to the Baltimore Sun: "I've said this time and time again, that Jernigan is just a pit bull. I mean he is going to go hard on every single play, he is going to be in your face, he is gonna do what he has to do. He is quick, strong and powerful. He can get you with the shimmies because he has a lot of finesse. He is kind of like an all-around animal, and I love playing next to him. He gets the guys moving to where people start thinking they have to get more people on him because they can't handle him, so it frees up other people for me and Lawrence Guy."

Douglas was the Ravens' top collegiate scout when they drafted Jernigan in 2014, which means he signed off on the team's evaluations of the guy, and the Ravens were thrilled when Jernigan fell to them in the second round. One would assume he still has a cordial enough relationship with his former colleagues in Baltimore to get an honest assessment of the behind-the-scenes stuff that you can only know by watching a player every day. If the Ravens think Jernigan could be a beast in a scheme like Schwartz's, Douglas would be in a position to know that.

Strictly from a perspective of talent evaluation, we have every reason in the world to think that the Eagles are making a very smart move in thinking that Jernigan could flourish in Schwartz's scheme.

But, again, that only matters if the Eagles keep him in Philly beyond 2017 at a reasonable cap number.

Which brings us to Reason No. 3

3) It's a damn good time to convince Timmy Jernigan to take the money that's there for him.

Jernigan actually profiles quite similarly to the guy he'll be replacing, and while Logan certainly wasn't a bargain on the one-year, $8 million deal he signed this offseason, he's also one significant injury away from retiring without any further career earnings. Same goes for Dontari Poe. And Fairley's deal with the Saints only included $14 million in guarantees.

If Jernigan bets on himself and has a monster season, he could make himself a lot of money on the free agent market next year, same way A.J. Bouye did this year. That said, he could also have the year Bennie Logan had: solid, but not nearly enough to propel him into an elite-level contract like Malik Jackson or Brandon Williams, etc.

If I'm his agent, and the Eagles were to approach me with a contract that gives him, say, $18 million guaranteed over four seasons, I would advise him to think long and very hard about it.

What are the Eagles willing to offer? What is Jernigan willing to accept?

Those two questions matter just as much as, "What is Timmy Jernigan's talent level?" when it comes to answering, "Was Timmy Jernigan worth trading down 25 spots in the third round?"