Vick's performance: 'Inefficient and erratic'
Not everyone has been impressed with Michael Vick's performance this season. One writer says Vick remains "inefficient and erratic."
Vick's performance: 'Inefficient and erratic'
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
Not everyone is impressed with the way Michael Vick has performed in two and a half games this season.
Friend of the blog Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders writes that Vick has simply benefited from facing two of the league's worst pass defenses in Jacksonville and Detroit.
If Vick's improved as a player, the last two games haven't indicated that through his level of production on the field. He remains inefficient and erratic. He's improved his timing, but it's not as a passer.
While highlight shows featured what Vick did on his three completions of 42 or more yards, he was wildly ineffective at times. On Philly's first four drives, Vick had the 61-yard touchdown pass to DeSean Jackson ... and otherwise went 2-of-8 for six yards with a sack. After an effective two-minute drill to get an 11-point lead, Vick led two possessions that combined for seven plays by going 2-of-4 for 22 yards and a sack, with both completions coming on third-and-long and ending up short of the sticks, leading to punts.
In the summer, Barnwell was kind enough to answer some questions for us about the Eagles. So I called on him once again to further explain his stance on Vick.
Here's the quick Q&A:
Q: You note that the Eagles have an easy slate of pass defenses remaining. But do we really know who the good pass defenses are going to be based on three games? Or is a lot of that based on last year?
Barnwell: We don't know for sure, of course, but I think we're getting there after three weeks of play. We can safely say that the Jags (31st in 2009, 31st before the Vick game) are pretty bad, I think. The Redskins were 20th last year and are 28th through three weeks; again, I think we can say they're probably not that great. On the other hand, take a team like the Titans - best pass defense in the league this year through three games, but 25th last year (after years of being successful). I might be inclined to think they're pretty good after three games, if not necessarily the best in the league.
Q: You write about Vick having stretches against Jacksonville where he was "wildly ineffective." But don’t most quarterbacks have some stretches like the ones you described throughout the course of a game?
Barnwell: To an extent, but not as bad, and not against such a bad pass defense. Take the Jaguars' first two games, for example. Philip Rivers never threw more than two incompletions in a row, and that happened one time. His success rate - the percentage of the time he picked up more than 40 percent of the needed yards for a new set of downs on first down, 60 percent on third down, or 100 percent on third/fourth down - was 68 percent. In Week 1, Kyle Orton only threw two incompletions in a row twice, and his success rate was 50 percent. Vick threw four straight incompletions at one point, had four stretches with back-to-back incompletions, and had a success rate of 39 percent.
Now, Vick made up for it by hitting bigger plays downfield, of course. The difference between what he did and what the other two guys did, though, isn't quite as large as you might think. The average Vick completion traveled 10.1 yards in the air. The average Rivers completion was at 8.2, and the average Orton completion was at 8.0. Having a high completion percentage is much more sustainable in the NFL than getting 10 yards in the air per completion, or throwing a touchdown every 15 attempts, or not throwing any interceptions.
Q: Does your evaluation take into account other variables – like drops, offensive line play, etc.?
Barnwell: We're not factoring in drops, no, but every quarterback has drops. I didn't see anything on Sunday that made me think that Vick had an significantly high number of drops relative to a league-average quarterback, but I'm not opposed to the idea of it being a possibility.
COLLINSWORTH AND SIMMS CHIME IN
Analysts Phil Simms and Cris Collinsworth debated Vick's play on Showtime's Inside the NFL.
"It is a great story. We talked about it two weeks ago. His legs are back," Simmms said, per a release from the network. "I’ll tell you what I learned watching him play Jacksonville this week. ...Andy Reid has tailored the offense to him. Get him back away from the offensive line, send the receivers deep down the field. He makes highlight throws, but also the big thing that really caught my eye when you let him get far back from the line of scrimmage, what happens? The defense expands, so does the pass rush. Now the running happens very naturally to him. I don’t think it was a great game by him in Jacksonville. There were four throws that were spectacular. The rest of it, it doesn’t matter. He’s a home run hitter and when he hits those home runs that brings in a lot."
Added Collinsworth: "He missed a lot of throws in that game, let’s be perfectly honest about this."
MY TAKE
I wrote about Vick at length in Tuesday's feature. Did he miss some throws? Yes. But this is going to be a big-play offense because of the personnel. Vick was 3-for-5 on throws that traveled over 25 yards in the air from the line of scrimmage. And he was 5-for-9 on throws that traveled at least 16 yards from the line of scrimmage.
He's making plays on third down and it's hard to argue with 7-for-8 on converting red-zone trips into touchdowns.
I also think there are circumstances that go beyond Vick's play. By my count, the Eagles have dropped seven very catchable balls the last two weeks. And while DeSean Jackson had a monster game, he had a couple missteps - not getting two feet inbounds on the fairly routine catch near the sideline in the third quarter, and running backwards, costing the offense a first down on 3rd-and-15.
Plus there were the two Mike Bell run plays that were stuffed on 3rd-and-2 and 4th-and-1.
Barnwell notes that the Eagles likely won't face an above-average pass defense until the Titans in Week 7. And he likely won't face another one until the Cowboys in Week 12. If Vick beats up on below-average pass defenses all season, and leads the Eagles to an NFC East title or a playoff berth, I'm not sure it really matters which teams he did it against.
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Waiting to hear from Vick haters when Rothelisberger comes back next week. We'll hear silence, most likely. Then again, what he did was against women, who are nowhere near as important as pit bulls, right? And how many Vick haters eat beef, or wear leather? You don't think those animals weren't abused in any way to put food on your table or clothes on your back? Puh-lease. What Vick did was despicable, but let's have an honest conversation, shall we? If we eat beef, pork, or chicken, we contribute to animal abuse in some form or fashion. So, then, animal abuse is all a matter of degree. If you're not the one chaining the cow to a pen in a darkened barn, but you're eating hamburgers, are you not complicit in that abuse in some way? I kinda think you are. But we're not allowed to talk about that.— andrewfrombrooklyn- I hate to admit it but the ex-giant, Simms, has it right- he is a home-run hitter. We're not going to see the accuracy from him that you will a Drew Brees, but he's going to make some spectacular plays. That's the trade-off.— KMG
- why do I have to compare vick to ben? while factory farming is terrible and many other hunting practices are terrible, so is what Vick did. Most animals hunted or farmed for food are terminated as fast as possible not tortured, thats the difference, intentional cruelty. I forgive him anyway, but cmon, theres going to be resentment and his actions will follow him wherever he goes, so get used to it, dont act so surprised or like hes the victim. Hopefully he can make a big impact now with trying to prevent further abuse like hes doing, and thats all you can ask of the man.— peteike
- His "stance" on Vick? That's what happened! Does anyone doubt that Kolb wouldn't have done at least as well? Last year Kolb torched the Chiefs consistently and methodically for 4 quarters. Granted, it was the Chiefs, but the Chiefs 22nd ranked passing defense puts them far above Jacksonville and Detroit in either '09 or '10. Eagle fans should expect whoever is QB to run up big plays against patsy defenses. Vick was erratic and inconsistent for 6 years as a full-time player and, if you look at the last two weeks, he has shown the same. He through several balls into Lion defenders' hands and had several dormant stretches against Jax. The point being, Vick is what he is. He ain't getting better. Kolb will likely improve with playing time. Reid gets fired at the end of the season and neither he nor Vick return. This is the last act of the circus and then hopefully the team can move on with professionalism and class.— jtj06
- That's a very upbeat blog. After failing to build the first pass only Super Bowl champion, despite having a stellar defense to rely on in 2000-2004, the mad scientist Andy Reid doubles down and decides to scrap the WCO and create the world's first "home run" only offense with a team that has a so-so defense. Brilliant! Playoff teams will never be able to stop the "home run".— jtj06
- Smooth. When Vick flicks the ball it goes 60 yards in the air. And he's got touch. Love the 3rd down 7-8, the game is slowing down for him, even with our O-line. Go Eagles!!— hallux
- Trelle writes the Barnwell's column is based on emotion not facts. SORRY DUDE, you have it the wrong way. Barnwell has a consistent measure he uses to gauge QB performance. Vick didn't do that well with it. That's all he is writing about. Based on the score that he uses to measure QB performance- stats behind the stats- Vick was inefficient and erratic. He can't write anything else without scrapping his heretofore reasonable and objective measure. Same thing with the Football Scientist guy after week 2. He counts QB decisions that did or should have resulted in negative game changing plays and Vick had a ton of them. The unemotional and factual point being- since good teams normally capitalize on poor QB decisions and normally shut down the big play (where was DeSean last December with a BETTER big play QB?)- the Eagles aren't a serious playoff team with Vick at QB and are probably worse than last year when they were pretenders routed out of the first round.— jtj06
Comment removed.- It's easy for racists and closet klansmen to talk about Vick killing dogs but its hard for rednecks to talk about how devils ordered DOGS TO ATTACK and kill Black people all over the world. Get over it, Vick is the most versatile QB in NFL history!— allworld2
- take away all the good plays and he didn't do very well. give me a break. I don't care for Vick killing dogs but at least try to be honest in your appraisal of his play. Numbers aside, would you really want to be a defense trying to defend him. Even if his passing is not the most accurate he is such a threat to run that is a different game when he plays. Would they like him better if he was an inaccurate passer who stayed in the pocket?— notch44
- notch 44, as an Eagle fan- if you are one- were you ever worried when the Eagles had to face Vick? I always thought it was an easy "W" if they could get a lead and Atlanta couldn't pound Dunn & Ducket down their throats.— jtj06
sheil has by far and away the brightest future in sportswriting ... hook up w/Mike Mayock soon dood - 2 credible locals.— daveH- Who is this tool Barnwell?— realtruth
jtj06 -- numbers dont lie. period. keep hating. go birds- the bottom line is kevin kolb was 5-10 and 24 and got knocked out of the game against greenbay and they have one of the leagues be defenses... mean while vick's play almost gave us a chance to actually win that game what is this lame talkin about!!! get a life play some qb in the nfl first before you start to try critque someones game you lame!!!!— DJ_Bootleggah
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