Gambling on the Eagles in 2012
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Gambling on the Eagles in 2012
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
As I've written before, even if no one utters the words Dream Team this summer, the Eagles are not going to sneak up on anyone in 2012.
Want proof? Go to Vegas.
Joe Fortenbaugh of the National Football Post has an article up with lines for the first 16 weeks of the 2012 season, courtesy of Cantor Race and Sports Book. The Eagles are favored in 13 of their first 15 games. The only games in which they are listed as underdogs are at the Steelers (by 1 point) and at the Saints (by 2.5 points).
Here's a list of the games the Eagles are favored in:
Eagles (-7) at Browns
Eagles (-3.5) vs. Ravens
Eagles (-3) at Cardinals
Eagles (-4) vs. Giants
Eagles (-4.5) vs. Lions
Eagles (-6.5) vs. Falcons
Eagles (-4.5) vs. Cowboys
Eagles (-3.5) at Redskins
Eagles (-7) vs. Panthers
Eagles (-1) at Cowboys
Eagles (-5.5) at Bucs
Eagles (-7) vs. Bengals
Eagles (-9) vs. Redskins
It's obviously risky to bet this far in advance (actually, it's risky to bet in general), but a few games stand out here. It's always good to look at value. In other words, which lines are most likely to move by the time the games roll around. Here are a few guesses:
* The Eagles will be less than 9-point favorites against the Redskins in Week 16.
* The Eagles will be less than 6.5-point favorites against the Falcons in Week 8.
* The Eagles will be less than 7-point favorites against the Panthers in Week 12.
Do any others stand out for you? It's worth noting that the Eagles are favored in all five NFC East games listed, including at home against the Giants and on the road against the Cowboys.
Another way to look at the numbers is to use them to judge strength of schedule. In other words, the games in which the Eagles are heavy favorites can be considered their easiest games. Here's a ranking (again, not including Week 17 against the Giants) of their schedule, going from easiest to hardest, based on the lines above.
Week 16 vs. the Redskins (9-point favorites)
Week 1 at the Browns (7-point favorites)
Week 15 vs. the Bengals (7-point favorites)
Week 12 vs. the Panthers (7-point favorites)
Week 8 vs. the Falcons (6.5-point favorites)
Week 14 a the Bucs (5.5-point favorites)
Week 10 vs. the Cowboys (4.5-point favorites)
Week 6 vs. the Lions (4.5-point favorites)
Week 4 vs. the Giants (4-point favorites)
Week 2 vs. the Ravens (3.5-point favorites)
Week 11 at the Redskins (3-point favorites)
Week 3 at the Cardinals (3-point favorites)
Week 13 vs. the Cowboys (1-point favorites)
Week 5 at the Steelers (1-point underdogs)
Week 9 at the Saints (2.5-point underdogs)
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The Vegas algorithm seems to apply too much advantage to playing at home, at least as far as the Eagles are concerned. Last year they were a game under .500 and the year before that they were at .500. If I were looking for value, I'd look at the home games first, where they seem to have us at 8-0.— words_matter
Good job Sheil... your offerings present a different perspective about the game within the game... with fans salivating for fresh information... which unfortunately this time of year primarily consists of regurgitated information with a different spin... should be some fresh perspective coming out of our three day rookie camp this weekend.. I hate that my Flyers are home... great job guys... proud of my young Flyers we will be better next year. Go Flyers.- It's funny that people don't see the point of Sheil's article. The Sports Books in Las Vegas, who make their money off of getting these things as close to right as possible, are currently betting on the Eagles for 13 of their first 15 games. As for the question, "How are the gambling lines blah blah blah?" Vegas already set them. They don't want you to wait for the regular season to start your betting. Does it mean anything? Only that the Eagles are *currently* favored by Vegas. It doesn't mean anything else... unless you're a bettor. Also, the title very clearly indicates what this BLOG entry (NOT a column, a BLOG) is about. If you have no interest in reading about gambling or betting lines, why did you bother to read the article? Keep up the good work, Sheil. Please ignore the negadelphians.— knighn
- exactly, pathetic to have to explain this. — peteike
- Great Info Sheil! I would never think about betting lines for games 6 months away. I do place the occasional bet, so your info is very cool. I'm sure that you already know to ignore the idiots who post here but it never ceases to amaze me that a person's brain can be that tiny.— Tozmanian
- Nice article Sheil -- Please do a follow-up before the beginning of the regular season, to compare roster before and after train camp and pre-season games.
I'm forgetting what movie they said it in but yes "...follow the money!"
— Laughingaloud123 - With all this BS they will still be 7 and 9— thechief
- L123...All the President's Men...no?— tpizza
- Sheil, why do you think the Eagles will be less than 9 point favorites in week 16 against the Redskins? Because they'll be resting their starters? The Panthers I can see as they'll be an up and coming team but in their quest to overtake the Saints, the Falcons are quickly becoming a one dimensional passing team with no defense, something the Eagles should be well equipped for. If anything, the lines for the games at the Redskins and at the Cardinals should move higher.— thefadd
- It is way too soon to consider the Eagles a lock to win all those games, way too soon! I don't see them winning more than maybe six on that list, at this point. Let's see who makes the team, and how they do in the preseason. Add to it, we need to see how the first 2-4 games go before we can call these guys a dream team, or anything near to that.— MidStaterUXB
- lol, I know. this is like confirmation that they will lose at least half those games. They only time they even have a remote chance against a good team under Reid is as AN UNDERDOG. Andy has a .380 record or something against winning teams. lifetime. THAT IS HORRIBLE. they play 8 games against winning teams, even after changes they should still face about 8. one year they went 11-5 and 0-5 vs winning teams. at .380 Andy will be lucky to go 3-5 in those 8 games. add in a dumb loss somewhere else and if your lucky they go 10-6. realistically he could go 2-6 or 1-7 against winning teams. which is 8-8 or 9-7. 0-8 vs winning teams and 7-1 vs bad teams, also possible knowing Andy. (7-9 record) But they should go 10-6 and win no more then 1 playoff game. Favoring them in 13 games is laughable and part of the reason why they wont actually win 13 games.— CharlieGarner25
- Hey sheil....stop having your friends comment on every article.— psualum
- I have to say I still like Sheil, but not a great article, even for May 10th.— CharlieGarner25
- tpizza - ...yeah you're right it was "All the President's Men."— Laughingaloud123
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