The uncertain future of DeSean Jackson
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The uncertain future of DeSean Jackson
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
DeSean Jackson turns 25 years old today.
Less than a year ago, he delivered his signature moment as a pro, returning a punt 65 yards to the end zone to cap off a 38-31 comeback win over the Giants.
Now, Jackson's future with the franchise that drafted him in the second round of the 2008 draft is very much in question.
Over the past week, I've listened to arguments that Jackson's time here is over. That his performance last week, when he dropped three passes (two in the end zone) and shied away from contact is unforgivable. That the Eagles should bid farewell to him this offseason.
And I get it.
But it's not that simple.
Jackson's had a down year. I don't think you'll find anyone to argue otherwise (except maybe Drew Rosenhaus). Even so, he's still been one of the more dynamic big-play threats in the league. Jackson's averaging 17.0 yards per catch, which isn't as high as his average last year (22.5), but is only slightly below his career average going into the season (18.2).
But he's not making as many big plays.
Maybe, but Jackson still has 10 catches of 25+ yards on the season. Only three wide receivers in the entire NFL (Carolina's Steve Smith, Vincent Jackson and Calvin Johnson) have more.
The problem is not that Jackson has had trouble getting open. The problem is not that Jackson isn't getting enough looks (he's averaging 7.6 targets per game, more than last year's number of 6.9).
The problems are two-fold. And one of them is easily measured: drops.
Jackson has nine drops on the season, tied for third-most, according to STATS.com. And when Jackson drops the ball, it's a bigger deal than when others drop the ball, because he's not a 100-catch guy. He's a receiver that is expected to capitalize on huge, game-changing plays when given the opportunity.
UPDATE: Second chart and additional notes added Thursday afternoon for better context.
I went back and took a closer look at the drops to see if they increased after his concussions. Here are the numbers. The second column, Catchable Balls, is the sum of catches and drops. The third column, Drop Rate, is the percentage of drops per catchable balls. And the Drop numbers in the first column are courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
| Drops |
Catchable Balls |
Drop Rate |
|
| Pre-1st concussion |
12 |
129 |
9.3% |
| Post-1st concussion |
23 |
133 |
17.3% |
| TOTAL | 35 |
262 |
13.4% |
| Drops | Catchable Balls | Drop Rate |
|
| Pre-2nd concussion | 19 | 177 | 10.7% |
| Post-2nd concussion | 16 | 85 | 18.8% |
| TOTAL | 35 | 262 | 13.4% |
The numbers support what your eyes have been telling you: Jackson's performance in terms of catching the football has taken a significant dip since he suffered the concussions. Before the first concussion, he had dropped just 9.3 percent of the balls thrown his way. Since then, he's dropped 17.3 percent of the balls thrown his way.
The real change came at the beginning of the 2010 season. In Jackson's first two seasons, he dropped 9.2 percent of the catchable balls. In the past two seasons, he's dropped 19.3 percent.
He's only missed two of a possible 62 games in four seasons because of injury, but health has, and will continue to be, a storyline when discussing Jackson's career.
The second factor is not easily measured: Jackson's relationship with his teammates and coaches, and how it affects chemistry.
Jackson was told to stay home a couple weeks ago against Arizona. And then he was benched in the fourth quarter of Sunday's loss to the Patriots. In general, players support one another and are unified against management in contract squabbles. But I remember being in the locker room after the Cardinals game and hearing pretty much every player back Andy Reid's decision to punish Jackson for missing a team meeting.
There is a human element to this also. Jackson is young and should just now be entering the prime of his career. When his rookie contract expires at the end of the year, he'll have reportedly made about $3.46M in four NFL seasons. A nice chunk of change for you and I, but not "big money" by NFL standards.
Jackson's performance last week probably didn't sit well with his teammates. Jason Avant got laid out attempting to catch a Vince Young pass. Tight end Clay Harbor did the same. But Jackson chose not to. Twice. His teammates noticed that. And so did his coaches.
But I can understand why he did what he did, and why he very much appears to be a conflicted player. Regardless of how this thing plays out, Jackson is five games away from a big payday. He's suffered two concussions in four seasons and knows that one hit can end his career. Even if Jackson plays under the franchise tag in 2012, he'll make a reported $9.4M, nearly three times what he's earned in his first four seasons.
So, the question going forward is this: Is the Jackson situation salvageable? The Eagles have three options once the season is over.
The best-case scenario is that the two sides come to an agreement on a contract extension. Jackson provides the Eagles with the deep threat they need to complement the other pieces of this offense. His performance improves with the peace of mind of having a new deal, and Jackson teams up with Jeremy Maclin to re-write the franchise's record books.
The other two options involve Jackson playing in another city next season and beyond. Maybe the Eagles conclude that they have to pay LeSean McCoy and Maclin (both contracts are up after 2012), and decide that Jackson is not worth the trouble.
In this scenario, one option is to just let him walk after the season. That seems unlikely, but it's not totally out of the question.
The final option is to use the franchise tag and trade Jackson. While this is more appealing than letting him walk - because the Eagles would get something in return - it might not be that easy to find a trade partner. There will definitely be interest in Jackson for the reasons I detailed above. But if he's looking for Larry Fitzgerald money, I don't think there's a team in the league that will deal for him. Remember, any team that deals for Jackson would have to come to terms with the Eagles on compensation AND be able to work out a long-term deal with him.
At the rate things are currently developing, there's no telling what the Eagles' relationship will be like with Jackson a month from now when they play their final regular-season game against the Redskins. Much has changed in the past year, and Jackson's future in Philadelphia is very much in question.
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Just want to throw some support behind D-Jax since a lot of people are beating him up this week. The guy's been a helluva player for the Eagles since the day he stepped in the building. The fact that they would let him go into this season making what he makes is a disgrace. Even if they couldn't agree on a long term deal due to unreasonable expectations from Jackson, couldn't they have thrown the guy a bone and bumped his salary this year up to 5 or 6 mil? I mean, Steve Smith is making 4. How would you like it if you worked at a company for 3 years and were one of their top performers, only to see them hire someone off the street, pay that person 7 times what you make, and then see that person produce nothing? This is probably the first time I've ever sided with an athlete demanding more money, but how can you not sympathize? All this "diva" talk is B.S. I've NEVER heard D-Jax talk subversive. I think he's handled himself with a tremendous amount of class considering the circumstances. If they let him walk, they will regret it. How long did we go without a real threat on the outside (other than T.O. for a year)? These guys just aren't that easy to find. Pay the man!— bpgavin1- i hate jacksons immaturity on the field but hes a weapon the eagles wont easily replace.
the eagles management went over the middle and gator-armed the ball on this one.
from getting him signed early to how hes used when its clear eagles not gonna sign him.
reid is almost giving himself a reason for trading him by continuing to send him over the middle.
eagles management= losers that wanna look good while losing.— bloodymess - First, let Andy and crew go. See how Jackson is with the new boss. Hate to see him go, like TO. Sometimes you need a little evil on your team.— cm3737
- I'm trying to remember what "evil" has been on teams that won the super bowl? Packers? Colts? Patriots? Steelers? Saints? Let him walk... No tag... No trade... Not even an offer... Just leave... — Mike19038
- You're right. Big Ben is a model citizen. If you're lucky, he'll knock on your door tonight and take your daughter out on a date.
Regardless, being a questionable teammate with a big mouth doesn't quite qualify as "evil" in the big picture, does it?— greentears - Enough Already. If Jackson would have performed like he should have this year, he would have gotten his contract by week 4 or 5. However, he's done nothing but drop big passes, two TDs in the season opener alone, and this past week vs. New England was a total disgrace. Either way, he will get his payday when the Birds Franchise him next year and then he'll also get to prove whether or not he's worth a long-term contract with the Eagles or another team. I'm interested to see how he handles himself tonight. After last week, I think it's a safe bet that Andy will be sure to send him across the middle and see what his true level of commitment is to the team.— eaglesphreak23
- He is THE fastest guy in the league. Does he shy away from contact? Sure, just like Deion Sanders. Complaining about guys like these two and A.Samuel not being physical is like complaining that Roy Halladay stinks because he can't hit at the plate.— SilliBilli
- He is THE fastest guy in the league. Does he shy away from contact? Sure, just like Deion Sanders. Complaining about guys like these two and A.Samuel not being physical is like complaining that Roy Halladay stinks because he can't hit at the plate.— SilliBilli
- The bottom line is this: the front office knew that Jackson could become a distraction with his contract (re: TO). Instead of throwing money at Vince Young ($5 million this year...really?!) they should have placated Desean and his scumbag agent.
If we lose Jackson, we will regret it. The Cowboys or Giants will grab him in a second.— warreninrochester - Hey Sheil, thanks for clarifying that it is Carolina's Steve Smith, and not ours, that has more 25+ yards catches that DeSean.— tommy2times
- It all depends on the money. How much for DJax? We still don't know how much he thinks he is worth or how much The Eagles think he is worth long term. I'd love to see him stay - I mean come on, DJax, Maclin, Cooper, Avant, McCoy, Celek and Harbour together make up one of the most electric group of skill players in the league. I'm more worried about Vick and the LB/Safety situations long term.— otown philly fan
- The answer isn't getting rid of Desean - ti's getting rid of Reid. He can't handle big talent. This entire mess of a season is his doing - from not paying Desean (hey, I'd duck out of the way too if a $10 million payday was on the horizon), to hiring Juan Castillo, this season is Reid's worst - and hopefully his last.— hunsinator
- I don't see DeSean jaclson as a distraction. The hype surrounding his contract comes directly from the media. If you ask the man a number of times about his contract, he is eventualy going to say something that will be spun into a distracting headline. Bottom line, I think they should TRY to keep Jackson. I just don't feel he is worth a top 5 WR pay. He hasn't shown he deserves it, pre or post 2nd concussion.— PhillyFanSouth
- While Jackson should have gotten a contract extension, NONE of us know what Rosenhaus is looking for. Jackson told Michael Irvin in an interview that he viewed himself as a "top 5 reciever"--uh, no--he's not in Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, or Fitzgerald's class. In big playoff games, he's disappeared. In the NFCCG loss in '08, he had a big catch for a TD, but he almost dropped that one. He should have been following the example of Matt Forte of the Bears--play hard for the team, no matter what and he'd have been rewarded. You forget that he's been whining about his contract for nearly two years--including when he refused to catch punts during warmups of last year's Bears game. And the other thing is these fans who say, "if the Eagles let Jackson go, they'll regret it"---did they regret letting Owens leave? What has he done SINCE he left? How about Troy Vincent, Bobby Taylor, Trotter, Hugh Douglas, Duce Staley, Lito Sheppard, etc. Everytime some fans cries that nonesense, the player who left winds up being a shadow of himself. And what guarantee if they or some other team pays him does that team have that he'sll still not have the alligator arms or the dropsies that he's shown?— bobbyuk
- Bobby your way off point here like most philly fans you think this guy owes us personnaly. All the players you mentioned were past thier prime. Djax turns 25 TODAY, imagine that we have this talent for the next 5-6 years. I agree that he really nneeds to grow up but as stated in some of the previous posts he is the fastest guy in the NFL. — eagles-fan-in-texas
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