The impact of DeSean's drops
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The impact of DeSean's drops
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
Sometimes, we probably make things more complicated than they need to be.
In 2011, DeSean Jackson averaged 64.1 yards per game, 16.6 yards per catch and totaled four touchdowns. All were three-year lows, leading many (including yours truly) to devote quite a bit of space to writing about Jackson's attitude and mental state.
To be fair, those were relevant issues, especially after Andy Reid benched Jackson in the second half of one game and suspended him altogether against the Cardinals. Jackson has admitted that the contract was weighing on his mind last year and he was a distracted player.
But wide receivers are largely judged on two things: the ability to get open, and the ability to catch the football.
Now that Jackson has a new contract, is it fair to think he'll bounce back in 2012?
Despite all the talk about defenses playing their safeties deep (which they did) and teams figuring out how to stop Jackson, the truth is he could have at least changed the narrative slightly by simply catching the football when he was open. And I'm not talking about the catches in the middle of the field where defensive backs were looking to crush him. Or even the catches in the red zone, where space get tighter and he's largely been a non-factor.
I'm talking about the bombs - the passes 20 yards or more downfield where Jackson gets past the cornerback and safety. The plays that Jackson relies on to be effective. The true game-changers.
According to STATS.com, Jackson had nine overall drops. Below are drop numbers for the Eagles' top three wide receivers from a year ago. The last column is simply the percentage of "catchable" balls that were dropped.
| Drops | Catches | Drop % | |
| DeSean Jackson | 9 | 58 | 13.4% |
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 63 | 6.0% |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 52 | 1.9% |
As you can see, Jackson was the worst of the group. But what makes those numbers more alarming are that Jackson dropped four balls that were 20+ yards downfield. To be exact, they were 40, 25, 43 and 50 yards downfield. Even if you take away YAC and assume Jackson would have been tackled right away, adding in those four catches would have made his 2011 numbers look like this: 62 catches, 1,119 yards and 18.0 YPR.
What's the point? For starters, Jackson is still getting open. He's still beating defensive backs. And the Eagles are still designing plays to get him the ball and hit on big plays. Something as simple as catching the football in 2012 will likely determine whether he has an OK year or an outstanding year.
It should be noted that Jackson has had issues with drops for most of his career, so until he proves that they're not an issue, it's fair to be skeptical. But if he can just cut down on them slightly, it's reasonable to project that he'll once again be one of the best vertical threats in the game.
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There is no way that Avant only had 1 drop last year. I remember the one where he was wide open in the end zone and then there were 2-3 others that I can remember.— andrewc23- Vick and DJax didn't look as in sync as they had 2 years ago, strangely enough. Vick seemed to overthrow him a lot. If DJax drops less AND Vick is more accurate, they will be a very dynamic duo.
They'll probably get blitzed too much to allow for a lot of deep throws though.— Mambojevi - Andrew, drops are subjective. The numbers above are from STATS.com. But Pro Football Focus had Avant down for three drops and Maclin down for six. - SK— skapadia
- Avant's drop in the end zone was two years ago, I think.— crazyeyes
- No, avant didnt have any drops, he had crappy passes thrown to him out of desperation by the great MV7. A bad pass thrown into like triple coverage is not a "Drop". Drops are when the guy is A. open, and B. just drops it. Alot of those crazy passes on 3rd down Avant actually caught, but if he gets like a finger tip on a badly thrown ball, in double coverage, that is not considered a drop. I think thats what you are talking about. Thats just bad QB play.— CharlieGarner25
- Drops as a percentage of catches isn't really relevant. It's drop as a percentage of targets that matters. What do those numbers look like. It is an interesting point about what the stats look like if those bombs are caught.
- The relevant fact is that last year Vick was murdered in the pocket. His OLine, especially early on; was pitiful. Every injury Vick suffered came in the pocket. It's often blamed in Phila on Vick holding the ball to long when that is factually bull, the Offensive line anchored by two rookies did not recognize or pick up blitz packages. I'm believing this year should show better performances.
Sheil, what's the drop rate for Celek? A primary reason Vick has to hold onto the ball is his receiver route running on intermediate routes. The lack of precision route running prevents his receivers from gaining separation on intermediate routes. Both, Maclin and Jackson should now begin to show some improvement in that area. Celek and Avant are primary intermediate receivers, Celek has shown to be unreliable as he also drops the ball to often.
Cleaning up the line play and better concentration on the part of the receivers and most of these problems disappear.
— Dexter - I like Avant a lot, but he had a poor season last year. Buffalo game in particular I believe. Just another reason for 8-8.— tpizza
- Either your clutch or your not. Maclin and desean will stretch the field fine. Are they clutch no. It's the short slants that we need to work on so Vick can get the ball out quicker. Until reid trades for some new proven players to help with competition I don't see the drops improving if you never have to look over your shoulder. But it's been that way for how many seasons now.— Yes_General
- Right on Dexter! Should throw in Cooper's numbers as well. Being human your not going to catch everything. Having said that, Riley should have had one ball that turned into a game changing interception last year. As Dexter said the O-line play was rough at the start but better later. No OTA's or preseason with new D. Coord., D & O-line coachs teaching a system that was completely different than the previous & there was/is a learning curve. D. Watkins a rookie was 'swimming' for a while but showed great strides towards the end of his first season. Howard Mudd's presence at recent OTA's is I'm sure missed - (get well soon! - they miss your yelling - they really do.. lol)! Celek was battling a number of injuries but did have his share of drops as well (no I'm to tired to look up #'s on some NFL almanac :P). It took the entire team a while to find their Mojo, but don't discount the last 4 games. Other benefits of no playoff's last year - less punishment on their bodies & more recover time from this upcoming season. The Eagles made some great moves in the off-season from changes in coaching on down. As long as Vick stays healthy I believe they will be a prime contender & no I'm not having a bite of that pizza - lol..!— highfive
- Why haven't they signed Plaxico yet? Atleast we know he can catch the ball when it counts the most. In the END ZONE!!— Geno D
- On Desean; If he just used his mouth instead of his hands he'd never drop another ball again.— Geno D
- Jackson sure dropped that Falcon after the interception vs. Atlanta. Was Jason Peters achilles tendon ever injected with corticosteroids? More than once?— mccloudmj
- Just another example of how many points the offense left on the field last year. The important takeaway for me here is that defenses haven't so much "figured out" how to stop Jackson. Vick also had a couple bad passes when Jackson was open deep last year as well. As with Vick, if DeSean stays healthy this year, I expect big things.— borntosuffer
- Avant was always known for having great hands, and not dropping passes. However last year he dropped several. Don't know exactly how many, but he had definitely more than one. I even heard the commentators during one game comment on the fact that he usually has sure hands, but had dropped a few during the year.— watsonmr
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