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Odds on DeSean's deal, Vick's health

I received an e-mail in my inbox last week from Bodog, with odds on several Eagles-related items for the 2011 season.

Odds on DeSean's deal, Vick's health

Bodog has set the over/under for games started by Michael Vick at 14.5 for the 2011 season (David Maialetti/Staff Photographer).
Bodog has set the over/under for games started by Michael Vick at 14.5 for the 2011 season (David Maialetti/Staff Photographer).

I received an e-mail in my inbox last week from Bodog, with odds on several Eagles-related items for the 2011 season.

I always like to see where Vegas stands, so let's run through some of these today.

When will the Eagles sign DeSean Jackson to a new contract during the 2011 season?

The Birds' explosive wide receiver enters the final year of his rookie deal and has not yet signed an extension. Here are the odds for when the Eagles will sign Jackson:

Before the first 8 games are played: 6/5
After the first 8 games are played: 5/2
Will not be signed: 3/2

As you can see, the slight favorite in this scenario is that Jackson will be signed in the first half of the season. It's worth noting that the franchise tag would fall under that third option since it would mean Jackson didn't sign during the regular season.

Over/under on Michael Vick total games started: 14.5

Surprised by this one? The way some talk about Vick's injury history, you would think the number would be more like 11.5 or 12.5. But as I've mentioned several times before, in five seasons as a starter with the Falcons, Vick started at least 15 games four times. Last year, he missed three of 15 starts because of injury.

Over/under on Michael Vick passing yards: 3,500

I'll admit I thought this one was high. Vick set a career high with 3,018 passing yards last year, but again, that was in 12 games (11 starts). Vick averaged 251.5 passing yards per game in 2010. If you extend that average to a 16-game season, he would have ended up with 4,024 yards passing. So in that respect, the 3,500 number makes more sense.

The other aspect to keep in mind here is the overall rise in passing numbers. Last year, five quarterbacks threw for at least 4,000 yards, and 12 threw for at least 3,500.

The Football Outsiders Almanac has Vick projected for 3,763 yards.

Over/under on Michael Vick passing touchdowns: 24.5

Big numbers for Vick all around. He set a career high last season with 21 passing touchdowns. Ten quarterbacks last season threw at least 25 touchdown passes.

The FOA has Vick projected for 26 touchdowns.

Over/under on Michael Vick interceptions: 12.5

Last year, Vick threw just six interceptions in 372 attempts, or one every 62, a remarkable number. This number undoubtedly reflects the idea that such a low rate would be difficult to sustain in 2011.

It's also worth noting that Vick threw seven interceptions in his final six starts last season (including the playoffs). In his final three seasons as a starter with the Falcons, Vick threw 13, 13 and 12 interceptions, respectively.

The FOA has Vick down for 11 interceptions.

Over/under on Michael Vick rushing yards: 750

The odds don't anticipate Vick running less in 2011. He finished with 676 yards rushing in 2010, which translated to 56.1 yards per game. Extended over a 16-game season, that would be nearly 898 rushing yards.

In 2006, Vick ran for 1,039 yards; in 2004, that number was 902; and in 2002, 777.

The FOA sees a dropoff, projecting Vick for 519 rushing yards.

Over/under on Michael Vick rushing touchdowns: 7.5

Vick carried fantasy teams with a career-high nine rushing touchdowns last season. But he's rushed for more than seven scores just one other time in his career - in 2002 (8).

The FOA has Vick projected for eight rushing touchdowns.

Over/under on Michael Vick sacks: 35.5

The Eagles obviously hope the under rings true on this one. Vick was sacked 34 times in 2010, tied for fifth-most in the NFL, behind Jay Cutler (52), Joe Flacco (40), Philip Rivers (38) and Donovan McNabb (37).

Over/under on LeSean McCoy rushing yards: 950

I must say, I was surprised this one was so low. McCoy had 1,080 rushing yards in his first full season as a starter (15 games). Last year, 17 NFL running backs had 1,000-yard seasons.

The one number that sticks out is 207 - that's the number of attempts McCoy had last season. Among those 17 1,000-yard rushers, only Tampa's LeGarrette Blount had fewer (201).

Still, McCoy averaged 5.2 yards per carry.

The FOA has McCoy going well over, projecting him for 1,100 yards.

Over/under on LeSean McCoy rushing/receiving touchdowns: 9.5

McCoy had a total of nine scores last year - seven rushing and two receiving.

The FOA has McCoy picking up 11 touchdowns - eight rushing and three receiving.

Over/under on DeSean Jackson receiving yards: 1,000

It doesn't look like they're too worried about Jackson's contract being an issue. Jackson had 1,056 receiving yards in 2010, despite starting only 14 games.

In 2009, he had 1,167 yards, and as a rookie, Jackson had 912 yards. The three-year average is 1,045 yards.

The FOA has him going under with 953 yards.

Over/under on DeSean Jackson receiving touchdowns: 7

Jackson had six last year, nine in 2009 and two as a rookie.

The FOA has him down for six.

Over/under on Jeremy Maclin receiving yards: 900

This is interesting, because the over/unders project similar totals for Jackson and Maclin. Maclin had 964 yards in his second season and 762 yards as a rookie.

The FOA has Maclin dropping off to 763 yards.

Over/under on Jeremy Maclin receiving touchdowns: 7.5

Maclin was the Eagles' best red-zone receiver last year, and he finished with a total of 10 receiving touchdowns. That was tied for seventh-most in the NFL.

The FOA has Maclin down for six TDs in 2011.

Over/under on Brent Celek receiving yards: 550

Bounce-back year? Not quite, according to this number. Celek had 511 yards receiving last season, a big dropoff from 2009 when he had 971.

The FOA has him projected for 566 yards.

Over/under on Trent Cole sacks: 10

Cole was the Eagles' most-used defensive lineman in 2010 and will almost certainly see a dropoff in snaps in Jim Washburn's rotation. He's had double-digit sacks in three of the last four seasons and has averaged 11 sacks since 2007. Last year, Cole finished with 10.

Over/under on Cullen Jenkins sacks: 4.5

Jenkins looked like a force in the interior during the preseason. Sacks can be hard to come by for defensive tackles, but Jenkins had seven a year ago in Green Bay. And in 2009, he had 4.5.

Over/under on Jason Babin sacks: 7

Babin had a career-high 12.5 sacks a year ago with Washburn and the Titans. Prior to that, he had never had more than five in any season.

Over/under on Nnamdi Asomugha interceptions: 3

Asomugha's had only three total interceptions in the last four seasons, primarily because opposing quarterbacks never threw at him. Don't forget, though, he had eight picks back in 2006. We know the Eagles will likely use him in a variety of ways, which could mean more opportunities to create turnovers.

Over/under on Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie interceptions: 4.5

He's had 13 interceptions in three seasons, including three in 2010.

Over/under on Asante Samuel interceptions: 5.5

Samuel figures to see a lot more action this season with Asomugha on the other side of the field. He's had 16 INTs in the past two seasons, including seven in 2010.


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Sheil Kapadia Philly.com
About this blog
Sheil Kapadia is in his fifth season writing about the Eagles and the NFL for philly.com. His earliest memories as a sports fan include several trips to Veterans Stadium with his Dad. He's not a beat writer or an Insider, but is here to discuss the NFL 365 days a year. E-mail him at skapadia@philly.com or by clicking here

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