Are the Eagles built to win now?
It's time for the annual offseason discussion about the Eagles' window, and whether it's open or closed. Is this team built to win right now?
Are the Eagles built to win now?
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
It's difficult to pinpoint exactly when the whole window conversation became an annual offseason topic.
You know the one I'm talking about. It revolves around the Eagles' window of opportunity to win a Super Bowl. After the 2001 season, when the Birds reached the NFC championship with a third-year coach and a 25-year-old quarterback, the window seemed like it would be wide open for years to come (and really, it was).
But pretty much every offseason thereafter, the question was asked: What do the Eagles need to do to win now?
Given the roster turnover we've seen in the past few seasons (Brian Dawkins, Donovan McNabb, Jon Runyan, Tra Thomas, Brian Westbrook, Sheldon Brown, Lito Sheppard and so on), it makes sense to visit that topic once again.
Before 2010, Eagles management refused to use the word rebuilding around the Novacare Complex. Yet, after the playoff loss to the Packers, Andy Reid's message was a little different.
"Very few teams can retool the way that we retooled and still compete, put yourself in a position to compete for a championship, and we were able to do that," he said.
And so the question must be asked. After a season of retooling, are the Eagles built to win right now? Will they be legitimate Super Bowl contenders in 2011? It's a complex question that I want to look at from three different angles: personnel, coaching staff and offseason uncertainty.
Let's examine the first (and the biggest) one today and the other two on Tuesday.
PERSONNEL
Do the Eagles have the players right now to compete for a championship, and how long will the core be together? I've identified a specific group to examine based on two factors:
1. I expect each to be starting for this team in 2011 (assuming there's football). This means their jobs are secure, they're under contract (or are expected to be) and they're healthy.
2. Each is capable of playing at a high level and has demonstrated that in the past year or two.
Here's a chart with those players listed, along with age and contract information. Note that age pertains to the projected start of the 2011 season.
| Age |
Contract |
|
| Michael Vick |
31 |
Unsigned |
| LeSean McCoy |
23 |
Signed through 2012 |
| DeSean Jackson |
24 |
Signed through 2011 |
| Jeremy Maclin |
23 |
Signed through 2013 |
| Jason Avant |
28 |
Signed through 2014 |
| Brent Celek |
26 |
Signed through 2016 |
| Jason Peters |
29 |
Signed through 2014 |
| Todd Herremans |
28 |
Signed through 2013 |
| Asante Samuel |
30 |
Signed through 2013 |
| Trent Cole |
28 |
Signed through 2013 |
Before I get to what the table shows, let's acknowledge some players who were left off. Because of the offseason uncertainty, we do not know how things are going to play out for guys like Quintin Mikell and Stewart Bradley, who are not under contract. I included Vick though because I have trouble envisioning a scenario where he is not the starting quarterback in 2011.
There were some tough decisions to make on defense. You could make the case for Antonio Dixon or Mike Patterson to be included, but given the way the Eagles rotated defensive linemen in 2010, I didn't include either guy. And injuries have to be accounted for also, which is why you don't see either Brandon Graham or Nate Allen listed. Both players showed promise, but they suffered season-ending injuries, and I wasn't comfortable saying either is a sure bet after one season.
One more thing to keep in mind when looking at the last column of when players are signed through. That doesn't mean the player will become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the contract. We don't know what their exact rights will be until the CBA is resolved.
Let's move on to the players who are listed. As you can see, seven of the 10 are signed through the 2013 season. And from the numbers I saw, those aren't really backloaded/deceiving contracts. The one exception could be Samuel, who's scheduled to make $10.4M in 2013 at the age of 32. Then again, he's coming off his best season as an Eagle.
Vick is a tough player to project. He'll be 31 later this year, and while he's unsigned, the Eagles are fully expected to use the franchise tag on him to keep him here in 2011. Remember, just because they tag Vick doesn't mean a long-term extension won't be worked out. So it's a distinct possibility that he's the starting quarterback through at least that 2013 window. We don't know how much (if any) his body benefited from not getting hit for two seasons while in prison. We also do not know how he will react to different defensive schemes being thrown at him now that teams have a year of film on him in the Eagles' system.
Jackson is only signed through next season, but extending him will likely be an offseason priority (once the Eagles are able to do so). McCoy is an interesting case because he'll be in a somewhat similar situation to Jackson next season. He's working under a rookie contract that will pay him $490,000 in 2011 and $575,000 in 2012. Like Jackson, McCoy is represented by Drew Rosenhaus. Keep in mind, though, that he'll only be 24 when his rookie deal runs out. Assuming he doesn't take some kind of giant leap backwards in the next two years, it's reasonable to assume he'll be with the Birds through another contract.
You'll notice that eight of the 10 players I listed are on offense. That group is built to win now. Guys like McCoy, Jackson, Maclin, Avant, Celek, Peters and Herremans should all theoretically be in their primes. And Vick is coming off his best season.
McCoy, Jackson, Maclin and Celek are nowhere close to 30. The only three offensive positions not accounted for in the above table are center, right guard and right tackle. Winston Justice was signed to an extension during the '09 season and is under contract through 2013. He had an inconsistent 2010 that resulted in the benching against Green Bay, and the Eagles will have to decide whether he can start at right tackle for the next few years.
Center is an unknown with Jamaal Jackson recovering from injury and Mike McGlynn having had an up-and-down 2010 season. However, Jackson is also signed through 2013. McGlynn is scheduled to be a free agent after next season.
At right guard, Max Jean-Gilles is not under contract. Neither is Nick Cole.
So overall, the offense is in very good shape to be a championship-level group through at least 2013. At that point, Vick will be 34.
The defense, of course, is another story. There's a lot of uncertainty on that side of the ball.
Up front, Trent Cole is a Pro Bowl-caliber defensive end, and Dixon also played at a Pro Bowl level last season, even though he was not used as an every-down player. The Eagles have three other guys who were first-round picks: Brodrick Bunkley, Mike Patterson and Graham. That's where Jim Washburn comes in. The Birds are counting on him to get the most out of this group. Of the players mentioned here, only Bunkley is likely to become an unrestricted free agent before 2013.
Linebacker is a complete crapshoot. Bradley, Akeem Jordan and Ernie Sims are scheduled to be free agents, although we don't know what exactly their rights will be until after the CBA is resolved. I can't imagine they'd bring Sims back though. Meanwhile, JaMar Chaney and Moise Fokou are playing on rookie contracts so the Eagles control their rights. Having said all that, I'm not sure that there are three starting linebackers among this group.
And finally, the secondary. I mentioned Samuel above. Mikell is a free agent, and Allen is on his rookie contract so he's not going anywhere. Right cornerback is a position that has to be addressed (hey, didn't we say the same thing last year?). And Joselio Hanson is signed through 2013.
So what's the bottom line here with personnel? Offensively, the Eagles are in position to compete at a Super Bowl level in the next two-to-three years. That window could probably be extended, based on a variety of factors (contracts, health, draft, free agency, etc.). But without taking any of those into account, the Eagles have several talented players that should be in their primes (and under contract) through 2013.
The defense is filled with question marks. Last year's group certainly was not Super Bowl-caliber. If Graham, Allen and Chaney make significant leaps in their second seasons, if the Eagles add a talented linebacker (or two) and a capable right cornerback, if Juan Castillo proves to be a better fit than Sean McDermott and if Washburn can get more from the defensive line, maybe it could be. But then again, those are a lot of ifs.
In the second part of this analysis, I'll take a look at the offseason coaching changes, the draft and free agency.
And if you missed my posts from the weekend, I rounded up some mock drafts and wrote about how Kevin Kolb would feel about a potential trade to the Cardinals.
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Sheil, thanks for stressing the importance of the LINEBACKING position, which the Eagles consistently underplay to their detriment. And I liked jakster's onion rings...
I kinda think Jimmy Rollins should bat 5th. It will allow him to be somewhat undisciplined as a hitter (swinging at first pitches) while giving him the chance to drive a fastball when he sees it. Plus he can take some pressure off being a speed guy and thus saving his legs which gave him problems last few years.
Oh you wanted football comments here????? Its baseball season and finally we can talk about someone who could possibly win something (Ill hold off on the Flyers until June).— rvb2321- A resounding NO......the defense is a joke with names like Paterson, Mikel and some other guys named Joe...After Asante they do not have a quality player with physical skills or the brains to be anything other than the 32 worst defensive team in the league...thank YOU Andy for your incredible lousey personel moves.....and don't claim Michael or DeShawn as you got lucky with both of them......You cannot get around the talent question....and you can't coach third and fouorth teir players to pro-ballers.......TALENT wins.....and we don't have any on defense...— nuggett
- I don't think the defense is as far off as most think. They need another good CB, a stud LB and DL. They also need a good OL on the right side. That's 4 starters which could easily be filled through the draft and FA. Whomever they bring in via free agency on defense should be a team leader, because what that unit lacks more than talent, is a Ray Lewis type.
— Mayhem - I love how Gruden's name always comes up like he was the greatest coach in history. He took a TB team who's Defense was unreal and won the SB against the Raiders who had a high powered offense. Wait wasn't Gruden on the Raider's coaching staff just 2 years prior? What happened when the defensive players Dungy drafted left/retired oh yeah the team went from SB winners to non-contenders almost overnight and Gruden was fired for having TB in the bottom of the NFC South at a time when Atl and Car were the toughest games of the division. And everyone's 2nd favorite coach Cowher was the coach of Pitt for longer than Reid has been here and he came away with a total of 1 SB ring. As proved this year and last year if you want to win a SB in the National Free-agent League, you need to have a combination of luck, a stellar O or D and a good/great O or D to complement the other side of the ball. The Eagles will win a SB when the defense is as good or better than our offense is now. Would you guys rather be Ravens fans? That team is gonna go to the cellar quick without an infusion of young talent on both sides of the ball. How bout the Jets? They have a killer defense, but their offense is not right for their personnel. Some seasons things fall in place for a team like it did with GB this season, but that is where drafting and trading for players that work in your offensive and defensive game-plans comes in. Let them play out last season 10X and I bet you with everything that happened to that team last year they win the SB maybe 2 out of 10 times with them only making the SB 3 times.— SWIM
Get rid of Kolb! Since "HE" thinks he is talented enough to start on any NFL team let me do so. When they find out that he can't read Defenses to call the audible then he would be right on the bench.- Vick will probably take 200 hard hits next year. He'll be on the DL by Midseason so all this championship talk is just hot air.— farley
- Vick is the QB, so they aren't a championship contender in the NFL no-matter how many or few hits he takes. — jtj06
- The difference you see in Championship teams and the Eagles (besides the players) is that you see far less glaring errors in game management. Clock management and use of timeouts come to mind in really big games. If the Eagles are ever to win a 'Ship they need to get better in those areas and it starts with coaches. You don't see these kinds of errors in teams that compete for Championships.— mundiff
- It takes these two scenarios to win a superbowl: 1) Top 10 defense, top 5 running game and good special teams 2)Top 10 defense, good running game, great special teams, and most importantly a top QB that is as smart as they are accurate. i.e. a QB who can read blitzes and defenses prior to the snap.
the Eagles have none of the above. So they will do what we see every year. Make the playoffs and lose at some point along the way. Vick is electric, but so was McNabb for a long time. They are both not what you would call smart QB's by any stretch of the imagination!— Atlas - Your right about the defense but most people don't realize how important linebackers are. 6 of the last 11 SB winners were loaded at lb position in fact Pittsburgh was #1 and Packers # 2! The 6 teams I talk about the Ravens,Patriots,Steelers and Packers. In the Steelers 6 SB wins here are their lb's. Ham,Lambert,Russell,Lloyd,Porter,Kirkland,Harrison, Farrier you get the picture name 1 good lb in Reids time here don't give me Trotter he couldn't cover! The single biggest number on defense isn't being in the top 10 it's plus minus to's. Your top 5 got shot down the Packers were not on the too 25!
.— Sam 52 - They are built to win 10-12 games a year BUT NOT, ever, NEVER, EVERNEVER built to win the BOWL...starts with AR and his in game foolery.......— RoastedBird
Comment removed.- He'd like to make it a full time job.
— tpizza - Like Dave said it's the linebackers it's a joke how bad they have been in Reids 12 years until they get some in here it will be the same story again!— Sam 52
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