Cash-rich Comcast won't buy anything crazy: analysts

"Is Comcast Being Too Conservative?" Barclays Capital analysts Vijay Jayant and James M. Ratcliffe ask in a report to clients. Comcast's decision to pay down its debt instead of buying back its shares "is puzzling to us," since stock is now cheaper than debt, they write.

Does that mean Comcast is clearing the decks for a big acquisition attempt, like its past bids for AT&T and Disney, taking advantage of the weak economy and cheap asset prices?

They don't think so: "We don't believe that management is focused on M&A in this climate, and even if it were, there isn't really much to buy." Instead, they expect Comcast to make maybe $1 billion in small acquisitions this year, "particularly in the online space (in the vein of Plaxo or Fancast). We would be surprised, however, to see the company attempt a major cable acquisition."

They'd rather see a share buyback. And they're cutting their stock price target, to $17, from $20, "reflecting slow growth" and the slump in communications stocks.