1) Stocks up, bonds down: "All of Trump's plans are inflationary," writes Matt Topley, boss at Fortis Partners, King of Prussia, which invests $250 million for clients.
That's because: Corporate tax cuts + higher military, construction and Border Patrol projects = rising federal deficit + inflation. Of course, "that is more of a threat to bonds than stocks." For many stocks the Trump and GOP program would boost profits and share values, at least for a couple of years, Topley concludes.
2) Savings ahead: Investors who believed polls showing Clinton the likely winner "placed their bets in all the wrong places," but have adjusted quickly, says Jim Meyer, chief investment officer for $1 billion-asset Tower Bridge Advisors in West Conshohocken.
30-year mortgage rates are up, prices on existing bonds and dividend-rich stocks have tumbled, as investors expect rates will keep going up.
Count Meyer with those who expect Trump "is not against all Muslims, and he isn't going to build a 20-foot wall." Instead, he expects Trump will push three things: "tax reform, reshaping Obamacare, and reducing the regulatory burden. Each of those would be economically stimulative."
Investors will be less cheerful if Trump shows he's also serious about his non-conservative-Republican positions, Meyer concludes: "His tough stance on immigration and homeland security could deter growth."
3) Mortgage reform: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, though still cheap, nearly doubled in value after the election.
"Fingers crossed," crowed Gary Hindes, the Greenville, Del. - and Manhattan-based hedge fund manager who is helping lead the legal fight to force the federal government to compensate Fannie and Freddie investors. He was celebrating Trump's appointment of Washington investor lobbyist Ken Blackwell, who backs Fannie-Freddie shareholder compensation and privatization, to Trump's transition team.
4) Comcast is saved: "There's a new sheriff in Washington," and "the regulatory risk for cable is dramatically lower," writes veteran cable analyst Craig Moffett to clients of Moffett Nathanson Research.
The Democrat-led FCC's move toward regulating broadband Internet -- and price controls -- "has long been our #1 risk to cable stocks." With voters kicking out the Ds, Congress is now free to let Internet services charge what they can. Moffett is boosting his Comcast share-price target to $89 a share (it's been trading around $63).
5) Construction blues: Trump's campaign promises to "deport millions of undocumented immigrants," combined with his plans to fund highway projects will drive up labor costs, which have already risen so fast that projects are backing up, writes housing analyst Buck Horne in a report to clients of Raymond James & Associates.
Also, Trump's plans to "increase tariffs" and limit imports would drive up home construction mateiral prices. His plans to cut taxes, spend more and boost the federal deficit will drive up interest rates. And GOP plans to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac so the government isn't tempted to bail them out again will likely make 30-year mortgages rare and more expensive, Horne adds.
Of course, home construction could later boom, especially homes for rich people, if corporate and high-end tax cuts "prove highly stimulative" to the economy and "the Trump Train takes off," Horne concluded.
6) Bank relief: "Trump will nominate financial regulators who are more industry-friendly" than Obama did, starting with Fed board members and SEC commissioners, writes Brian Gardner, bank analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods in New York. Investment banks hope Trump regulators will be even more friendly than Clinton's SEC boss Mary Jo White. The Consumer Finance Protection Bureau is a likely Republican target.
But reversing the Dodd-Frank bank-regulation and capital-limits law won't happen without Democratic support. Both parties say they want to make compliance easier for the nation's dwindling number of community banks. But that will take negotiations and a deal.
Trump's promise to undo the executive orders Obama enacted in frustration with an uncooperative Republican Congress could lift the next president to cancel the Labor Department's overtime and fiduciary rules.
Weaker overtime rules would help lower-wage financial employers like Vanguard Group. Scrapping the fiduciary rule would make it easier for insurers like Lincoln National Corp. to keep selling high-priced annuities to middle-income Americans.
While some Republicans want to audit or even "end" the Fed, Trump "has made contadictory statements on monetary policy," confusing banks and investors while he figures things out, Gardner adds.
Student lenders are winners, he wrote. The GOP victory keeps Sen. Bernie Sanders away from running the key Senate committee that oversees subsidized college loans. Maybe they'll be privatized again as under previous Republican Presidents.
7) Truckers in reverse: Measures against cheap China and Mexico imports will hurt shipping stocks, economist-investor Ed Yardeni predicts. Railroad earnings for trans-Rio Grande shippers are also in doubt. By contrast, domestic oil, gas and pipeline companies like Sunoco Logistics face expanded opportunities.
8) Don't bet on mergers: People who think Trump will halt the Justice Department's challenges to the Aetna-Humana and Anthem-Cigna mergers "could not be more wrong," says David Balto, former policy director at the Federal Trade Commission. For one thing, antitrust officials are nonpartisan. For another, even some Republicans think Big Healthcare means higher prices and should be resisted.
9) Who's in charge? Yardeni says Trump is likely to hire a bunch of Wall Streeters, including 17-year Goldman Sachs veteran Steven Mnuchin as Secretary of the Treasury, and New Jersey Gov. (and Trump transition chair) Chris Christie's friend and fundraiser, private-investment manager Robert Grady, as a possible Secretary of the Interior.
That could disappoint anyone who believed Trump was running against Wall Street, but it's fine with Yardeni. "I am inclined to believe that a new morning is ahead for America," he told clients in a note. Instead of wrecking the Republican Party as critics predicted, he has "reinvigorated" it while stomping the Democrats. Trump has in one year ended two political dynasties -- the Bushes and the Clintons.
10) Not radical enough? Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital and a relentless critic of high U.S. debt levels, says voters were right to reject Clinton and the "failed" policies she represents.
Yet, he adds, the President-elect is himself a slave to high borrowing: "Trump has openly admitted that his business successes have been based on his ability to go deep into debt, and then to emerge, Phoenix-like, on the back of good deal-making, marketing and braggadocio... It is unlikely that he understands the chemicals he will be playing with" in government.
After 35 years of mostly rising debt (especially under Republican Presidents), Trump faces a harder job than Ronald Reagan did in 1980, Schiff concludes: "Trump did not make this mess," but has won an unusual opportunity "to clean it up."