Posted: Thursday, March 25, 2010, 12:40 PM | 27 comments |
 
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Waiting for a flight to Philly, out of Milwaukee, where last night the 76ers played very well and beat the Milwaukee Bucks. Not too many folks were happy about this victory, of course, because more losses means more ping-pong balls, and more ping-pong balls means better odds in the NBA Draft Lottery, and a lower finish means a better draft pick.

So, with that in mind, let's take a look at where the Sixers currently reside in the race for the bottom. And (roughly estimating), where they'll likely reside on April 15, when this season finally comes to an end. I'm just pulling these numbers, so if there's an error or glitch somewhere, or if I overlooked something, feel free to let me know.

First, here's a glance at the NBA's bottom standings as of this morning (we're not including the fringe playoff teams like the Chicago Bulls and Houston Rockets because they have enough wins -- like 34 or so -- to not be real contenders for some of these bottom spots): 

30. New Jersey Nets (8-63; .113)

29. Minnesota Timberwolves (14-58; .194)

28. Golden State Warriors (20-51; .282)

27. Washington Wizards (21-49; .300)

26. Detroit Pistons (23-48; .324)

25. Sacramento Kings (24-48; .333)

24. Philadelphia 76ers (25-47; .347)

23. Indiana Pacers (26-46; .361)

22x. Los Angeles Clippers (26-45; .366)

22x. New York Knicks (26-45; .366)

Let's look at the remaining schedule for each one of these teams.

The Nets (8-63): vs. Detroit Pistons, at Chicago Bulls, vs. San Antonio Spurs, vs. Phoenix Suns, vs. New Orleans Hornets, at Washington Wizards, at Milwaukee Bucks, vs. Bulls, at Indiana Pacers, vs. Charlotte Bobcats, at Miami Heat. Rough Estimate of Nets final record: 10-72. (Yeah, they're going to make sure they don't set a new record for NBA's worst-ever record.)

The Timberwolves (14-58): at Orlando Magic, vs. Suns, vs. Sacramento Kings, vs. Miami, at Oklahoma City Thunder, vs. Golden State Warriors, vs. Los Angeles Lakers, at New Orleans, at San Antonio, vs. Detroit Pistons. Rough Estimate of Timberwolves final record: 17-65.

The Warriors (20-51): vs. Dallas Mavericks, at Los Angeles Clippers, at Utah Jazz, vs. New York Knicks, at Toronto Raptors, at Washington Wizards, at Minnesota, at Los Angeles Clippers, vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, vs. Jazz, at Portland Trail Blazers. Rough estimate of Warriors final record: 24-58.

The Wizards (21-49): at Charlotte Bobcats, vs. Utah Jazz, at Houston Rockets, at New Orleans Hornets, vs. Chicago Bulls, vs. New Jersey Nets, vs. Golden State Warriors, at Orlando Magic, at Boston Celtics, vs. Atlanta Hawks, at New York Knicks, vs. Indiana Pacers. Rough estimate of Wizards final record: 23-59.

The Pistons (23-48): at New Jersey Nets, vs. Chicago Bulls, vs. Miami Heat, vs. Phoenix Suns, at Atlanta Hawks, at 76ers, vs. Hawks, at Miami Heat, at Charlotte Bobcats, vs. Toronto Raptors, at Minnesota Timberwolves. Rough estimate of Pistons final record: 26-56.

The Kings (24-48): at Boston Celtics, at Cleveland Cavaliers, at Indiana Pacers, at Minnesota Timberwolves, vs. Portland Trail Blazers, vs. San Antonio Spurs, vs. Los Angeles Clippers, vs. Dallas Mavericks, vs. Houston Rockets, at Los Angeles Lakers. Rough estimate of Kings final record: 26-56.

The 76ers (25-47): vs. Atlanta Hawks, vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, at Charlotte Bobcats, vs. Toronto Raptors, vs. Detroit Pistons, at Miami Heat, vs. Milwaukee Bucks, at Memphis Grizzlies, vs. Miami Heat, at Orlando Magic. Rough estimate of Sixers final record: 28-54. (Don't be angry, but the way this season has gone, the Sixers can't do much right, even lose when they need to. They're going to pick up a few wins at the end against teams that won't be at full strength as guys rest for the playoffs. Last season the Sixers won at the Cleveland Cavaliers in the final regular season game and it's not crazy to think they'll win that game against Orlando if the seeds are set.)

The Pacers (26-46): vs Utah Jazz, at Atlanta Hawks, vs. Sacramento Kings, vs. Miami Heat, vs. Houston Rockets, vs. New York Knicks, at Cleveland Cavaliers, vs. New Jersey Nets, vs. Orlando Magic, at Washington Wizards. Rough estimate of Pacers final record: 30-52.

The Clippers (26-45): at Houston Rockets, vs. Golden State Warriors, at Milwaukee Bucks, at Toronto Raptors, at Denver Nuggets, vs. New York Knicks, vs. Portland Trail Blazers, at Sacramento Kings, vs. Golden State Warriors, vs. Dallas Mavericks, vs. Los Angeles Lakers. Rough estimate of Clippers final record: 31-51.

The Knicks (26-45): at Phoenix Suns, at Utah Lazz, at Portland Trail Blazers, at Golden State Warriors, at Los Angeles Clippers, vs. Boston Celtics, at Indiana Pacers, at Orlando Magic, vs. Miami Heat, vs. Washington Wizards, at Toronto Raptors. Rough estimate of Knicks final record: 32-50. (Knicks have been playing .500 ball as of late and let's just assume it continues through the end of the season.)

Okay, so using those (seriously rough) estimates of final records, let's put together a new bottom standings: 

1 (30th). New Jersey Nets (10-72)

2 (29th). Minnesota Timberwolves (17-65)

3 (28th). Washington Wizards (23-59)

4 (27th). Golden State Warriors (24-58)

5x (26th). Detroit Pistons (26-56)

5x (26th). Sacramento Kings (26-56)

7 (24th). Philadelphia 76ers (28-54)

8 (23th). Indiana Pacers (30-52)

9 (22nd). Los Angeles Clippers (31-51)

10 (21st). New York Knicks (32-50)

Here's a quick synopsis of the NBA Draft Lottery rules (from Wiki, what a wonderful website): "In the current rules, 14 non-playoff teams participate in the Draft Lottery. The lottery is weighted so that the team with the worst record has the best chance to obtain higher draft pick. The lottery process determines the first three picks of the draft. The rest of the first-round picks draft order is in reverse order of the teams' win-loss record. The lottery does not determine the draft order in the second round or the subsequent round of the draft."

If you look at the predicted finish for the Sixers (and, again, I'm not a math major), they'll have the 7th-worst record in the NBA, which will give them an outside -- very outside -- chance at landing the No. 1 pick in the 2010 NBA Draft. Here's what the Sixers odds would be, if they did finish with that 7th-worst spot (these odds are if there are no ties, just clean and simple. Obviously above there is -- hypothetically -- one tie between the Pistons and Kings, but that wouldn't drastically alter the Sixers odds in the NBA Draft Lottery): 

76ers odds of landing No. 1 pick: 4.3 percent

76ers odds of landing No. 2 pick: 4.9 percent

76ers odds of landing No. 3 pick: 5.9 percent

After these top three spots being drawn, positions 4-14 are assigned based on weakness of record, meaning if odds hold true, the Sixers would likely end up with the 7th pick in the 2010 NBA Draft. If odds don't hold true (and another team jumps into the top 3 spots), the Sixers have a 72.4 percent chance (according to the odds chart) of still holding onto the 8th spot.

In 1993, the Orlando Magic won the No. 1 pick with a 1.52 percent chance of doing so. In 2000, the New Jersey Nets won the No. 1 pick with a 4.40 percent chance. In 2007, the Portland Trail Blazers won the No. 1 pick with a 5.30 percent chance. And in 2008, the Chicago Bulls won the No. 1 pick (and Derrick Rose) with a 1.70 percent chance.

Hopefully all this makes sense.

Quick-hit synopsis: Odds are that the 76ers will have a draft pick somewhere around 5th to 9th in the 2010 NBA Draft -- depending on the results of their final 10 games. And they still hold an outside chance of landing a Top-3 pick.

Time to fly out of Milwaukee ...

--Kate

Posted by Kate Fagan @ 12:40 PM  Permalink | 27 comments
27
Comments   
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:17 PM, 03/25/2010
    I think the sweet spot is somewhere between being 3rd - 6th worst team. The 1st and 2nd worst teams often don't get the 1 & 2 picks.
    DennyP
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:24 PM, 03/25/2010
    As long as we're talking draft, it looks like we have an interesting conundrum coming up due to our mid-lottery status. I think most people would agree that our biggest immediate need is still a front line 2 guard. The only guards currnetly projected as lottery picks are John Wall, evan turner (swing 2/3), and xavier henry (slated in the nieghborhood of the 14 slot, depending where you look). So assuming we dont luck out and get to pick wall or turner, do we reach down and grab henry or go for one of the big men slated for the mid-first round? Given the sixers history you'd have to think they'll just take the best guy left, which probably means a big man, but who knows at this point. It will be interesting, to say the least.
    duder
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:35 PM, 03/25/2010
    DennyP- All depends on who David Stern wants to get the top pick- you don't actually think it's random, do you? W/ NJ breaking ground on their new Booklyn digs, the Nets are a lock for John Wall.
    phila215
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:50 PM, 03/25/2010
    Phila you are dead on, Stern has his grubby hands all over who gets the top pick. This really sucks though the 7th pick will be a left over, would not be surprised to see these goons draft Wesley Johnson and think he can play 2. Don't really know what/who I'd draft other than turner and wall tho.
    Fightins85
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:52 PM, 03/25/2010
    phila215 - Hahahaaa. You're so right. I forgot. Out of the teams listed, NJ and WAS need rehab and will get high pick consideration. That said, Philly is a major market that needs a boost and is a bigger market than most of the teams listed. Finally, doesn't Utah own NY's #1?
    DennyP
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:53 PM, 03/25/2010
    Check out the mock drafts for #s 6 thru 7, players available are either swingmen or power forwards. We can't even win with our draft position - my wish is that we somehow slide into #2 and get evan turner - we need a #2 guard.
    dpcoz
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 3:01 PM, 03/25/2010
    just realized i bascially summarized duder - sorry man, didn't see your post, but yes, it is a problem. I guess we can reach and go for a center, but a good 2-guard would be a nice piece for this team...
    dpcoz
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 3:56 PM, 03/25/2010
    I mean, David Stern has to do something now that he worked to get Gasol to LA for nothing, helped Donnie Walsh free enough cap space for NYK to get two marquee free agents and got Boston relevant again a few years back. According to my calculations, Chicago and Philadelphia are next in line for some love from the league office...although Chicago magically got Derrick Rose w/ their 1.70 chance so maybe we are next in line
    phila215
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 4:07 PM, 03/25/2010
    Keep your eyes on the ball, folks. Who do you want to do the drafting and to what extent will that depend on who the coach will be next season? Many posters want Stefanski gone for the Brand and Jordan moves. But to give Stefanski his due, he did select Holiday in the 2009 draft who looks like a player and the season before took Maurice Speights, for whom the jury is still out, given his defensive shortcomings. Whether Stefanski is still GM is anyone's guess, but I assume he will get one more season. Eddie Jordan, on the other hand, is almost certainly gone. Thus the key will be the next coach and the system he runs. Do they draft for offense or defense, shooting guard or big bruiser, three point specialist or shot-blocker? Do they sign Dalembert to an extension or do they go with Speights and Smith? Do they keep Kapono, Williams, and Green, or only one of the three, two of the three? Whither Iguodala, Young, and Brand? No chance of unloading Brand, but what of Iguodala, certainly not a fan favority but with trade value. Then there are Carney and Meeks. Let them go? Keep one or both? The trades they will try to make might also impact their drafting. This should be a more interesting off-season than the regular season. One thing for sure: forget about Wall and Turner; they will be gone by the time the Sixers pick.
    chuckw
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 4:25 PM, 03/25/2010
    Xavier Henry people. That's who would fit our needs the best(with the realistic assumption that we're not getting at top 3 pick).
    Flock
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 4:29 PM, 03/25/2010
    Any pick 5th through 9th will not drastically help this team. Play as well as you can and try to get some momentum going for next season. You guys all think "tanking" is going to get us a Lebron James or Allen Iverson. Not gonna happen my friends......
    CBent1
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 5:08 PM, 03/25/2010
    Whatever direction the 76ers go in the draft, the player must have some skills and play defense. Being an athlete isn't enough. Also, if some good talent drifts into the 2nd round(like Chalmers, DeJuan Blair, Budinger did), be willing to pay $$ for a pick; a number of other teams have done it.
    76erfn
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 5:11 PM, 03/25/2010
    Oh Lord...is it basketball season already??
    TBear
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 5:20 PM, 03/25/2010
    Im assuming this but it seems like the sixers would get a pick somewhere between the 3rd and 8th. Dalembert will probably be traded next year so why not draft a good center, like Cole Aldrich from Kansas, or Greg Monroe from Georgetown. Any thoughts on this?
    Tough* Juice*
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 5:22 PM, 03/25/2010
    We're not getting a top three pick people so get over the whole ping pong ball thing.
    CBent1


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About John Mitchell
John Mitchell is in his first year covering the 76ers for the Inquirer after joining the paper in November 2011. He covered the Washington Wizards for the Washington Times from 1998 to 2008. He's also worked at the Philadelphia Tribune, the Wilmington News Journal, Courier-Post, Trenton Times and Elmira Star-Gazette.

Born and raised in West Philadelphia - not too far from Will Smith - he graduated from Overbrook High School the same year the 76ers won their last championship. He's a proud graduate of Howard University and the proud father of two sons, Jared and Jordan.

ABOUT MARC NARDUCCI

Marc Narducci has served in a variety of roles with the Inquirer since beginning in 1983. He has covered the 76ers as a backup and a beat writer. In addition, Narducci has covered everything from the Super Bowl to the World Series and a lot in between. Narducci also has a true passion for South Jersey scholastic sports, which he has covered for many years.

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