Fitzpatrick favored in election, forecasters say

Two non-partisan political forecasting services released reports in the last week now saying that U.S. Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R., Pa.) is likely to win re-election over his Democratic challenger in Bucks County this fall.

The two agencies, the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, had previously said the race "leaned" Republican, but now say Fitzpatrick is "likely" to stave off Democrat Kevin Strouse, a first-time candidate who previously worked for the CIA and served as an Army Ranger.

No independent public poll has been conducted on the race thus far. The election is just under three months away.

Cook's U.S. House editor David Wasserman described Strouse as "an ideal Democratic candidate for this seat," but said that Democratic Congressional candidates nationwide are facing an uphill battle this year. He also said Fitzpatrick has a strong foundation in the district, and that numbers seem to suggest he hasn't suffered politically from last year's G.O.P.-fueled government shutdown, when he was among a number of Republicans facing criticism from opponents and the public.

"This race is in a very different place today compared to where it [was] a year ago," he said.

Strouse hosted dozens of supporters this week in opening his second campaign office in Doylestown, and campaign manager Brendan McPhillips said in a statement that the event reflected Strouse's commitment to talking with voters about issues like job growth, infrastructure development, and the economy.

"It's clear that there is a genuine desire for new leadership in the Eighth District," he said.