Sanders has big lead over Clinton in NH poll

Bernie Sanders has opened up a 14-point lead on Hillary Clinton in the Democratic race for the presidential nomination in New Hampshire, leading the former secretary of state in nearly every demographic bloc, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll released Tuesday.

The Vermont senator earned 53 percent support to Clinton's 39 percent, marking a 9-percentage-point increase for Sanders and an equal decrease for Clinton since Monmouth's November poll of New Hampshire voters who say they are likely to vote in the Democratic primary.

The results largely closely align with those of a Fox News survey released last Friday, in which Sanders held a 50 percent to 37 percent lead over Clinton.

Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley had 5 percent support in the latest Monmouth poll, virtually unchanged from the university's earlier polling of the state.

Monmouth finds Sanders making inroads with some groups that had formed the core of Clinton's backing. Among women, Sanders leads 50 percent to 44 percent, compared with two months ago, when he trailed Clinton by 19 points (37 percent to 56 percent). He leads among voters 50 and older by the same margin after trailing Clinton by 18 points in November in that demographic (38 percent to 56 percent).

"New Hampshire Democratic preferences are getting baked in, with Sanders gaining the upper hand.  The final question will be who does a better job at turning out their respective voting blocs," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in New Jersey.

Roughly half - 52 percent - of those surveyed said they were set in their choice of candidate for the Feb. 9 primary, while 32 percent indicated a strong preference. Eight percent said they had a slight preference and 8 percent said they were undecided.

The poll is based on live interviews via landlines and cell phones from Jan. 7 to 10. It surveyed 413 New Hampshire voters drawn from a list of registered Democrats and independents who voted in a primary in 2012 or 2014, or who voted in both general elections and said they intended to vote in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary. Results from the survey are subject to a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.

Clinton's campaign has sought to put the brakes on expectations of its success in New Hampshire in recent days, noting that Sanders is from neighboring Vermont. Next-door pols tend to do well in Granite State primaries.

Last week, former President Bill Clinton noted that neighbors won every modern New Hampshire primary in which they competed, with the exception of 2004 when John Kerry (Massachusetts) beat Howard Dean (Vermont). He made the point while trying to lower expectations for his wife.