Poll: Obama leads in Pa., Ohio and Fla. among likely voters
President Obama hits 50 percent mark in crucial swing states PA, OH and FL, Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS poll finds. Middle class v. Rich theme may be working.
Poll: Obama leads in Pa., Ohio and Fla. among likely voters
Thomas Fitzgerald, Inquirer Politics Writer
President Obama leads Republican Mitt Romney with a slim majority of likely voters in each of the crucial battleground states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, according to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released Tuesday.
It is the first survey of voters who say they plan to vote, considered a more precise measurement of sentiment than polls of registered voters by Quinnipiac and others, in which the president generally has been running in the high 40s.
Conservative critics zeroed in on the poll's methodology, citing data that suggest that it assumed unrealistically high turnout by Democrats.
The Quinnipiac pollsters, who partnered with the two news organizations, say that Obama has been lifted by strong support for his plan to increase income taxes on higher-income voters. It also may be interpreted as a sign that the Obama campaign’s early advertising onslaught in swing states – a mostly negative drumbeat against Romney’s career as a private-equity tycoon who has parked money in foreign tax havens – may have gained some traction. Republicans and many independent analysts have argued that the attacks are appeals to class resentment, a rarely successful tack in U.S. politics.
In Pennsylvania, Obama tops Romney 53 to 42 percent in the poll; the president leads by a smaller 50 to 44 percent margin in Ohio, and edges Romney 51 percent to 45 percent in Florida.
Support for Obama’s proposal to extend the Bush-era tax rates only for households making less than $250,000 a year: 58 percent to 37 percent opposed in Florida, 60-37 percent in Ohio and 62 to 34 percent in Pennsylvania.
“If today were November 6, President Barack Obama would sweep the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and – if history is any guide – into a second term in the Oval Office,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “The president is running better in the key swing states than he is nationally. Part of the reason may be that the unemployment rate in Ohio is well below the national average. In Florida it has been dropping over the past year, while nationally that has not been the case.”
Romney breaks even with Obama on the question of who is best equipped to handle the economy, however, Brown said. The president’s chief strengths are the traditional “gender gap” – an advantage among women voters - and better "likeability" rankings than Romney has.
Yet the poll sampled 2.5 times more self-identified Democrats in Florida than the network exit poll did four years ago when Obama carried the state by 5 percentage points. Could there be more enthusiasm for Obama now that he is an incumbent with a record and a soft economy rather than a historic first-time candidate?
The new poll also runs counter to national polls which show a tighter race overall. Critics were asking Wednesday how the swing states could be at such variance.
In 18 out of the 20 independent polls of Pennsylvania voters taken since the beginning of the year, Obama has never held this large a lead.
“We have seen growing enthusiasm for Governor Romney in Pennsylvania...from increasing unemployment, rising healthcare costs, to a continuing war on coal that has forced companies to close their doors and lay off workers, President Obama’s policies are making it harder for Pennsylvania’s families and small businesses to survive," said Billy Pitman, state spokesman for the Republican National Committee.
The Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS poll was taken July 24 through July 30, and results are based on telephone interviews with:
1,177 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent;
1,193 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
1,168 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.
An attempt by the liberal media to sway voters opinion. I have news for you, it is a losing cause. The Pennsylvania Ave residents have already begun picking colors for their new home.
Let me get this straight, I'm supposed to care how Romney spends his money, but ignore how Obama spends mine?— sjuhawk416- I do enjoy observing "occupants" of the vacuum you Obamatrons live in, it is quite entertaining! This just in, dinner on election night in Obamaland is Goose, as in his goose is cooked. He will get to enjoy Ramadan back in his Chitown digs and will go down as the worst in history. You just don't know it yet because you have not come up for air while swmimming in the River Denial!— Paul Revered
- A vote for Mittens Mandate is a vote for the Bush policies of the past. In fact Mittens has doubled down on war with Iran and the continued deficit spending of George Bush.
No thanks— The Fundamentals of the Economy are Fine - An example of what comes out of the mouth of a crack smoker, ...."Hillary 2016, she will finish burying the last Tea Party Racist, Sexist, Homophobic Plutocrat!! — Fernando08"
— Paul Revered - Think again . . . closely evaluate those polls including their sampling statistics. They are pure mathematical garbage. Unfortunately you'll see a lot more of this left wing slant between now and November.— rplat
- Ah quit yappin .... You are all missing the big picture...... We are screwed regardless of who wins.... We are broke and there is not enough money to fix it..... Dems can tax all they wants , take it all..... It doesn't even come close.... The repubs can cut all they want.... Won't make a dent..... We are broke...... Look for a revolution within 10'years. Based on our dependancy on entitlements and nothing left to tax...... No way to get real economic growth . Obama is just expediting the revolution ... Inevitable...... Game over..... Used to be a great country..... History will show that bush and Obama destroyed the country...... You can put anybody in there now.... It is a disaster..... Time to move.— lordhelpus
- boy I hope so. We need a french style revolution. I want the aristocrats who own our gov't to be thrown into the streets. occupy wynnewood! — Ryan
- If the middle class puts believes him and puts this clown back in office, then they deserve to get shafted by him.— moretoit
- You are going to be so surprised when this socialist clown loses— fbpdplt
- Great! If President Obama wins a second term, and his budget projections are accurate, the National Debt will rise to 20 Trillion dollars. That would mean the debt increased 87 percent, or 9.3 trillion dollars in his 8 years. I know Bush's fault.— tlee
- Another day, another skewed poll to protect the president and mislead the public about his "positive" poll numbers and how it is a good sign for his re-election. This will continue along with not reporting any negative or damaging news on the President and the sky is falling reporting on any news that can be spun to hurt their enemy Romney. We can't vote the "journalists" out but we can and have refused to buy their propoganda as can clearly be seen in the media's ratings tailspin! Expect their spirits to be high as they breathlessly report on Obama's coming victory and then depression and "surprise" when he is "unexpectedly" thrown out in a landslide election.— cujat13
- We can talk about all the polls we want, but the simple fact of the matter is that no one trusts Mitt Romney. His entire persona, the way he has made his money, and his complete inability to stay on one side of any issue will not bring people out to vote for him. He may very well be the most unlikable presidential candidate ever to win a nomination. The only people who will vote for him are those who just simply hate Obama, and historically, that doesn't win the presidency. People have to be fully on board with a candidate for them to win, especially when trying to unseat an incumbent. And you don't have to go too far back to see an example: Bush vs. Kerry. People who hated Bush voted for Kerry. Everyone else voted for Bush.— Hemingway
- But many presidents HAVE lost when people hate their policies! Obama is clueless when it comes to business, markets and economics in general and that combined with his insistence on dividing American's into little sub groups according to their race, sex, sexual orientation and class is patently offensive to most American's regardless of ideology and ALWAYS leads to a divided and less successful country. — cujat13
- Obama, your not getting my vote!
You can reach Tom Fitzgerald at 215-854-2718 or tfitzgerald@phillynews.com.
Reach Thomas at tfitzgerald@phillynews.com.
