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Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Feel the Mittmentum in Indiana!

I can't think of anything more clever or more funny than to just come out and say it:

19,480 people in the state of Indiana voted for Mitt Romney for president last night.

I can practically feel the Mittmentum some 900 miles away! That means if you put every Hoosier who cast a ballot for the former Massachusetts governor and put them on a bus and brought them to Philly's vast Wachovia Center for a hockey game, you would fill almost every seat.

That would be a massive throng, clamoring for a slick-backed candidate who left the GOP presidential race three months after his presence inspired about as much excitement as a door-to-door encyclopedia salesman while he was still around, who now appears frequently on my TV to tell me how great is....

John McCain, who despite running virtually unopposed at this point for the GOP nomination, only managed to get 77 percent of the vote in Indiana, and just 74 percent of Republicans in North Carolina, where primary voters also have the option of voting "no preference."

Consider this: About four times as many Democrats went to polls in North Carolina as Republicans (and that's a solid red state!) and yet "no preference" almost got as many GOP votes (20,305, or 4 percent of the total)  as Democrats (22,722, just 1 percent).

Last month in Pennsylvania, I wrote about the ongoing support for long-ago-dropped-out fundamentalist favorite Mike Huckabee (who got a sizable 12 percent in North Carolina, and 10 percent in Indiana) and for unconventional, to say the least, anti-war still-a-candidate Ron Paul (8 percent in North Carolina, and also 8 percent in Indiana). Those numbers are not a total shock, because each one tapped into fairly rabid voting blocs. I don't think it bodes well for McCain, because both blocs may not even vote in November, especially Huckabee's evangelicals whose lack of enthusiasm in 2000 nearly torpedoed Geoge W. Bush.

But seriously, what to say about 5 percent of Indiana Republicans still voting for Romney, a candidate whose following was about as fanatical as supporters of the Los Angeles Clippers or the Florida Marlins. For all the punditry concern about division on the Democratic side -- and it is a legitimate issue -- I think the enthusiasm gap for John McCain is even more palpable.

Consider this: Indiana is a crossover state, and polling suggests that roughly one-in-10 of the 1.2 million voters in the Democratic primary was actually a Republican -- or 120,000 people. If that's correct, then in rough numbers a total of 530,000 Republican Hoosiers voted yesterday -- 320,000 who backed their party's candidate, John McCain, and 210,000 who voted for someone else. How many of those 210,000 will back McCain in six months?

Maybe McCain should have been the one doing the shots of Crown Royal.

Posted by Will Bunch @ 10:28 AM  Permalink | 48 comments
Comments
11:18 AM, 05/07/2008
McCain won 100% of the counties in Indiana. Obama won 9 out of about 80 counties in Indiana.
Posted by Mr. Smith
11:28 AM, 05/07/2008
The GOP issues with McCain are policy related, not personal. I'm one of those who voted against him in the Pa. primary but I'll be holding my nose and voting for him in November. I wish I had a different choice but when I compare McCain to an outright marxist like Obama and his screeching 'victim' of a wife, I can't sit home. On the other hand, Clinton and her supporters have been called racists (and worse) by Obama lemmings like yourself. If I were a Clinton supporter, I'd likely be telling you to drop dead after those kinds of outrageous personal attacks. Nader will be out there again and many moderates will be attracted to McCain. The far left has screwed up. Again.
Posted by b.atkinson
11:29 AM, 05/07/2008
Seems irrelevant to me, since general elections are based on state-wide toatls (with some minor exceptions.. NE, ME)
Posted by Politburo
11:38 AM, 05/07/2008
Politburo - are you citicizing Will's analysis of the percentages of the vote won by ech candidate?
Posted by Mr. Smith
11:51 AM, 05/07/2008
Conservative Republicans are simply trying to send McCain a message for the general election. I did it by voting for Romney in my primary. Sorry Will, but Republicans are not going to sit by and watch a left-wing radical like Barack walk away with the prize. Not without a fight, that is.
Posted by ocjones
11:57 AM, 05/07/2008
So Republicans will continue the trend of deficit spending and big gov't?
Posted by RG
11:57 AM, 05/07/2008
I suggest that bunch and his left wing Messiah comrades start calling Republicans 'racists' right now. Look how happy it made the moderate Democrat Hillary supporters feel about you and your candidate. Get an early start, no point in waiting until after the convention to seal your fate.
Posted by b.atkinson
12:00 PM, 05/07/2008
No, I'm criticizing your irrelevant data.
Posted by Politburo
12:09 PM, 05/07/2008
You forgot to give McCain credit for some of the votes that went for Hillary. Polls show that 6% of those who voted for Hillary identified themselves as Republicans and said they would not vote for her in November against McSame. If 3 times as many people voted in the Demo primary, that would be equivalent to 18% of the Repub vote, so McSame would have gotten a lot more votes had the Repub primary been of any importance and had there not been such an opportune time to implement Operation Chaos in crossing over. (subtract this phony 6% support and Hillary LOST Indiana).
Posted by atp2007
12:14 PM, 05/07/2008
Before we (and Will) jump to conclusions regarding the GOP primary results, I think we need information from the results of past primaries that were contested but the nomination was wrapped up. Being a New Jersey resident (and until this year our presidential primary being so late my vote was irrelevant) I know that I have voted in meaningless primaries and voted for either for a write-in candidate or someone else besides the nominee. In 2000 & 2004, I voted for McCain each time rather than cast my ballot for Bush in the primary, b/c McCain was my personal preference for the nominee irrespective of the nomination being a foregone conclusion. But, are voting patterns like this common? Did Kerry or Gore receive 80% plus in primaries after the nomination was wrapped up? What about Bush in 2000? Or even Clinton and Bush the Elder in 1992?
Posted by Publius
12:18 PM, 05/07/2008
Granted, to answer my own question (and would be consistent with Will's analysis) I didn't vote for Bush in the general election in 2000 and 2004 as well (McCain write-in in 2000 and Kerry in 2004).
Posted by Publius
12:28 PM, 05/07/2008
Good point, Puby, as usual. A quick check showed that Kerry got some 72% of the votes in the 2004 Indiana primary. I would imagine that Kerry had the nom only slightly less wrapped up then than McCain does now. Still, I think that relatively few of the non-Kerry Dem voters in 2004 wound up not voting for him in the GE. I'm not sure that the same can be said for non-McCain Republican voters in the 2008 primary.
Posted by Talking point sleuth
12:32 PM, 05/07/2008
Slightly off topic, but I've never seen an explanation on why McCain only got 47% of the AZ vote? Most other candidates significantly outperformed in their home states.
Posted by RG
12:33 PM, 05/07/2008
Kerry got 74% of the vote in the 2004 PA primary.
Posted by Talking point sleuth
12:43 PM, 05/07/2008
atp you can't really use percentages that way. Clinton had ~640,000 votes. 6% of that is ~38,500 (note ABC says it was 7%). ABC says 2% of Obama voters fit into this as well, and that 2% is ~12,500. If all these voters had voted for McCain in the GOP primary, his numbers would go from 77% to 80%.
Posted by Politburo
48 comments | View All Comments
About Will Bunch
Will Bunch, a senior writer at the Philadelphia Daily News, blogs about his obsessions, including national and local politics and world affairs, the media, pop music, the Philadelphia Phillies, soccer and other sports, not necessarily in that order.

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