Wednesday, August 27, 2014
Inquirer Daily News

Dept. of "I Told Ya So"

Low turnout in PR

Dept. of "I Told Ya So"

Remember that much circulated Hillary Clinton wishful-thinking tract that the Inquirer's Jonathan Last published a couple of weeks back. He wrote:

But could Clinton take over the lead in all of the popular-vote tabulations? Quite possibly. In Puerto Rico's last major election, two million people voted. Let's assume that turnout for this historic vote - Puerto Rico has never had a presidential primary before - will be equal to or greater than that turnout.

If Clinton were to win Puerto Rico by 20 points she would pick up at least a 400,000-vote margin. This would allow her to swamp Obama in the popular-vote counts, which include Florida, making her the leader in four of the six permutations of the popular vote. At that point, Obama would be left clinging to the least-inclusive count, which he now leads by 441,558 votes (551,780, including caucuses).

Actual Puerto Rico turnout: 385,578.

So only off by more than a factor of 5.

Told ya so.

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