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Tuesday, August 4, 2009

 

 

For all you political junkies smacking your lips at the prospect of a good fight, the impending Pennsylvania clash between Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak figures to be a hot fudge sundae with cherry on top.

This contest for the 2010 Pennsylvania Democratic senatorial nomination may prove to be unhealthy for the Democratic party, but, that aside, the nine-month bumper-car collision that officially began this morning is bound to be highly entertaining:

Snarlin' Arlen versus the Three-Star Admiral.
The Insider versus the Outsider.
The Party Establishment's Choice versus The Upstart Who Won't Go Away.
The Guy Who Joined the Democrats in '09 versus The Guy Who Joined the Democrats in '06.

Sestak made his challenge official this morning. Finally. For months he had teased and flirted, claiming that he first had to consult with his wife, his father, his daughter, his pet hamster, the neighbor's dog...but now he has honed his pitch. He said that in 2008, "this nation voted for change and accountability," and that he expects Pennsylvania's Democratic voters to do the same in the Senate primary next spring. Translation: Even though Barack Obama has already endorsed Specter the turncoat, Sestak considers himself to be the more authentic Democrat and hence the true heir to the Obama message of change. In short, he will try to frame the primary as a party loyalty test.

Well in advance of the spring contest, incumbent Specter is trouncing Sestak in the polls, but that's no surprise, given their name ID disparity. Specter has been a statewide fixture for nearly 30 years, while Sestak (a career Navy man until 2006) has only been a suburban Philadelphia congressman for two and a half years. My assumption is that Sestak will narrow that 30-point polling gap considerably as the months pass; he certainly has the money to do so. At the end of June, Sestak had $4.3 million in the kitty - in contrast to Specter's $7.6 million - with the prospect of raising much more from grassroots Democrats who view Specter as little more than an opportunist who quit the GOP only because he would've been road kill had he stayed. (Assuming Sestak can raise money, he can use it to upgrade his website. His announcement today was streamed live, but he sounded as if he was gargling nails at the bottom of a well. The partial quote in the previous paragraph was all that I could make out.) 

Most importantly, Sestak at minimum will be a major irritant for Specter during the next nine months. Specter is already viewed by many Pennsylvanians as essentially conviction-free, a weathervane who blows with the prevailing winds, and Sestak's challenge will worsen Specter's image woes.

Since only registered Democrats can vote in the 2010 primary, Specter will be forced to move to the left in order to mollify the liberal base and trump Sestak's charge that the incumbent is a faux Democrat. For instance, watch how Specter tries to present himself as an ally of the proposed law that would make it easier for labor unions to organize. He'll need to do that, in order to ensure that the labor unions won't endorse Sestak.

What's noteworthy, of course, is that, as recently as a few months ago, when Specter was still a Republican, he indicated publicly that he favored blocking Senate consideration of the proposed law making it easier for labor unions to organize. At the time, he was facing a conservative Republican primary challenge from Pat Toomey...which meant that he was being forced to move to the right in order to mollify the conservative base.

Back when Specter had to worry about his right flank in the GOP, he voted for the Bush tax cuts and other conservative favorites. As recently as March, when he was still a Republican and worried about Toomey's challenge, he sided with the Democrats on contentious Senate votes only 16 percent of the time (according to Nate Silver, the respected numbers-cruncher). But once he became a Democrat this spring, and started worrying about a Sestak challenge, he has sided with the Democrats on contentious Senate votes a whopping 97 percent of the time.

Perhaps Specter's constant re-calibrations can be spun (by Specter allies) as evidence of his responsiveness to the voters. Or his behavior can be spun as Sestak no doubt intends - as evidence that Specter is a congenital flip-flopper with no fixed convictions. That's why Specter surely views Sestak as a pain in the butt. Even if Specter ultimately wins the Democratic primary, his leftward tilts in 2009 will be cited by Pat Toomey during the general election as fresh evidence that the formerly rightward-tilting Specter cannot be trusted.

So in the short run, we can expect Specter to get personal and seek to paint Sestak as a fraud; at all costs, Specter has to ensure that the liberal Democratic base doesn't flock to his foe. And Specter has already signaled this tactic. Last month he assailed Sestak as "a flagrant hypocrite" who didn't even register as a Democrat until 2006, "just in time to run for Congress." Sestak said in response that, as a career military man, he had opted to remain nonpartisan; however, "I voted for Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry and Barack Obama while Arlen Specter was voting for George Bush and Bob Dole and John McCain." (Nobody can predict what the spring '10 political mood will be, however. Specter boasts that he has Obama's endorsement, while Sestak boasts that he voted for Obama. Will the Obama imprimatur be an asset in Pennsylvania next spring?)

Specter is one tough hombre, and at minimum Sestak will need to demonstrate that he can take a punch. But I doubt that a guy who led a Navy aircraft carrier battle group in the Afghanistan war will have trouble handling even the nastiest rhetorical weaponry. Let the games begin.

-------

"You know, honey, I'm sick to death of this socialist Obama and those socialist Democrats using government to meddle with our lives."

"Me too, dear. Would you like me to put on Fox News? Or maybe we can go to that town hall meeting today and shout down our Democrat congressman. I can go online and get planning tips from those pro-American national groups on how we can act spontaneous."

"Maybe later, honey. First I've gotta take our old gas guzzler over to the showroom so that I can take advantage of that sweet cash-for-clunkers deal."

"But dear, I hear the money is running out."

"So help me, if that Democrat congressman doesn't put more government bucks into that clunkers program, I'm gonna chase him down the street!"

"Yes, we could make a placard. 'Keep your hands out of my clunkers program!'"

"No, honey, it's the opposite, we want them to...oh never mind, let's just go shout at the socialists."
 

Posted by Dick Polman @ 11:28 AM  Permalink | 57 comments
Comments   
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:53 AM, 08/04/2009
    You forgot to add..."And they better keep their doggone Democrat government hands off my Medicare and Social Security, too!"...
    Yersinia Pestis
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:06 PM, 08/04/2009
    Oh, and if he injures himself while doing it, I hope he has health care with no preexisting conditions and he doesn't get denied for his claim by an administrator whose bonus depends on claim denials.
    HandNik
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:32 PM, 08/04/2009
    @Yersinia Pestis "unless they're going to privatize it, so the free market can work its magic."
    Phrossty
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:39 PM, 08/04/2009
    Only in the Republican world can a program that is so successful, be deemed a failure. I have yet to hear why it is a failure, other than it was more popular than expected. I would think that since it is working so well, everyone would want to keep it funded. Why is that a bad thing?
    Master Dreamz
  • Comment removed.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:14 PM, 08/04/2009
    "Only in the Republican world can a program that is so successful, be deemed a failure." Liberals always measure success by how many people are on the government dole. This program is a failure because it does not raise the real demand for these new cars. People don't want the car, they want the car with the money. Will demand stay high once the rebate is gone? This program also destroys the trade-ins, stifiling a real boost to the economy that would result from selling the cars used. Wouldn't you think a POOR person would like a used car at a cheap price? Not to mention the positive environmental impact of re-using a car so a new one does not have to be made. Once again, money is thrown at a problem at the expense of real economic benefit.
    jmc
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:27 PM, 08/04/2009
    "You know, honey, I'm sick to death of this socialist Obama and those socialist Democrats using government to meddle with our lives." Not me, sweetheart! You just have to know how to work the system. You know the Smith family down the street? The middle-class folks with a 10-year-old Corolla (b/c they read Consumer Reports!) who worked hard to save enough for the down-payment on their home with a straightforward mortgage? They're suckers because working hard, living within your means, and saving judiciously doesn't get you anywhere with Obama, Pelosi and Frank. Now, buying a house you can't afford with an idiotic $0-down mortgage would have been better, since Frank wants the banks to write down the values of those mortgages." (http://www.bostonherald.com/business/general/view/20090730barney_frank_warns_banks_about_foreclosures/) And the cash for clunkers program is great now, because giving away free money to induce the purchase of products made by--and with prices set by--government-owned entities to inflate their near-term sales figures always makes fiscal sense! (Well, not really free, since it's taken from taxpayers to induce the trading in of a used car immediately instead of in the near future as they were bound to do anyway--next year's demand for new cars is simply being shifted forward, but let's worry about those awful future sales later!) Since the cars are perfectly usable, maybe it might make sense for the government to let the used cars go to charity? Nah, the dealers are required to destroy those cars or they don't get their money.
    Vandy
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:29 PM, 08/04/2009
    I had the pleasure of being part of a town hall meeting with Mr Sestak back before the November elections and his miltary bearing , his knowledge of the issues and his can do mentality was refreshing. No disrespect for Mr Spector but Sestak will have my vote.
    hejira33312
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:43 PM, 08/04/2009
    http://mediamatters.org/mmtv/200907270052............ Bill O’Reilly explaining that of course America has lower life expectancy than Canada — we have 10 times as many people, so we have 10 times as many deaths. And yes, this is from the most popular Republican cable "news" host is history........... maybe the Dems outta re-think this whole trying to be bipartisan thing.
    the stupid does burn
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:56 PM, 08/04/2009
    Why does Specter at 79 years of age need to stay in the Senate? what is it about these elected offices that people want to stay nearly a decade longer than the average person retires? I am awfully suspicious of this. How about term limits? Even Home Depot changes up the buyers once while to keep them getting to cozy with the suppliers.
  • Comment removed.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:18 PM, 08/04/2009
    As a conservative, I will be contributing to to the fired admiral's campaign. Hopefully he will beat Benedict (me first) Arlen and get, if there is a God, beat in the general election. Then we will be rid of both of them.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:37 PM, 08/04/2009
    The folks in Tokyo surely can't believe their good fortune that, in the midst of a global economic crunch, the Obama administration introduced a program that will disproportionately benefit Toyota and Honda over US taxpayer-owned GM and Chrysler: "LaHood, the program's chief salesman, has pitched the rebates as good for America, good for car buyers, good for the environment, good for the economy. But it's difficult to determine whether the administration is overselling the claim without seeing what's being sold, what's being traded in and where the cars are being sold. LaHood, for example, promotes the fact that the Ford Focus so far is at the top of the list of new cars purchased under the program. But the limited information released so far shows most buyers are not picking Ford, Chrysler or General Motors vehicles, and six of the top 10 vehicles purchased are Honda, Toyota and Hyundai." http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090804/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_cash_for_clunkers_transparency
    Vandy
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:51 PM, 08/04/2009
    @Vandy - Where are the Honda, Toyota and Hyundai vehicles manufactured and assembled? If it's here in the USA, then I'm good with that. You see. I don't care which brand it is as long as good paying jobs for US citizens is the net result. Last I checked, GM has manufacturing nexus in Mexico and China. So the irony could be that I'd rather have sales for Toyota with plants in Alabama, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Texas or West Virginia, than for GM who was recently named one of China's best employers in 2009.
    SOURCE 1
    SOURCE 2
    Phrossty
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:53 PM, 08/04/2009
    Here's some news on the cash for clunkers program from AP..."WASHINGTON – The Obama administration is refusing to quickly release government records on its "cash-for-clunkers" rebate program that would substantiate — or undercut — White House claims of the program's success, even as the president presses the Senate for a quick vote for $2 billion to boost car sales. The Transportation Department said it will provide the data as soon as possible but did not specify a time frame or promise release of the data before the Senate votes whether to spend $2 billion more on the program. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said Sunday the government would release electronic records about the program, and President Barack Obama has pledged greater transparency for his administration. But the Transportation Department, which has collected details on about 157,000 rebate requests, won't release sales data that dealers provided showing how much U.S. car manufacturers are benefiting from the $1 billion initially pumped into the program." Initial reports indicate most of the cars sold through this program are Honda's, Toyota's and Hyundai's. So the majority shareholder in GM is helping out the competition. Nice.
    tom - wilmington, de


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About Dick Polman

Cited by the Columbia Journalism Review as one of the nation's top political reporters, and lauded by the ABC News political website as "one of the finest political journalists of his generation," Dick Polman is a national political columnist at the Philadelphia Inquirer. He is on the full-time faculty at the University of Pennsylvania, as "writer in residence." Dick has been a frequent guest on C-Span, MSNBC, CNN, NPR and the BBC. He covered the 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 presidential campaigns.

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