Uncertainty as Iraqi powerbroker dies

BAGHDAD - Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, who channeled rising Shiite Muslim power after the fall of Saddam Hussein to become one of Iraq's most influential politicians and maintained ties with both the United States and Iran, died of lung cancer yesterday in Tehran.

The soft-spoken Hakim, 59, was a kingmaker in Iraq's politics as head of the country's biggest Shiite political party. His death left a vacancy at its helm with just five months to go before parliamentary elections.

For many in Iraq's Shiite majority, Hakim was a symbol of their community's rise after decades of oppression under Hussein's Sunni-led regime. His family led a Shiite rebel group against Hussein from exile in Iran, where he lived for 20 years and built close ties with Iran's leaders.

After Hussein's 2003 fall, Hakim hewed close to the Americans even while maintaining his alliance with Iran, judging that the U.S. military was key to the Shiite rise.

The top two U.S. officials in Iraq, Gen. Ray Odierno and Ambassador Christopher Hill, offered condolences in a joint statement, praising Hakim for "contributing to the building of a new Iraq."

Political leaders from all sects also paid respects.

"Al-Hakim was a big brother and a strong supporter during the struggle against the former regime, and he was a major player in the process of building the new Iraq," Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said.

With Hakim's death, U.S. policymakers could face difficult challenges in the potential shifts in Shiite politics.

U.S. outreach to Shiites largely has been built around contacts with Hakim's faction and selected Shiite political leaders, including Maliki.

This has created strong connections at the top of the Shiite political food chain - compared with the many tribe-level dealings with Sunnis opened in efforts to recruit anti-insurgent fighters.

Changes in the Shiite hierarchy leave Washington vulnerable.

"The U.S. policies have been based on reliance on the important [Shiite] power-wielders in Iraq," said Mehrzad Boroujerdi, a researcher of Mideast political affairs at Syracuse University. "So now with Hakim out of the picture, one of those players is missing."

Among Iraq's minority Sunnis, Hakim was deeply distrusted, seen as a tool of Shiite Iran. His outspoken support for Shiite self-rule in southern Iraq was seen by Sunnis and even some Shiites as an Iran-inspired plan to hand Tehran control of Iraq's Shiite heartland, home to most of its oil wealth.

But the Iraqi Islamic Party, a Sunni party, expressed sorrow at the loss amid fears that those who replace him could take a harder line.

"Al-Hakim's absence will create a big political vacuum at this delicate stage of Iraq's history," the party said.

His death also comes at a time of political upheaval within the Shiite community.

The political alliance that Hakim helped forge and that has dominated the government since the first post-Hussein elections in 2005 has broken apart, pitting a coalition led by Hakim's party against another led by Maliki for the Jan. 16 vote.

As Hakim largely withdrew from the public arena because of his illness, his son and political heir, Ammar, has taken the lead in his party, the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council.

Ammar's lack of experience has raised questions whether he will be able to hold the organization together. Boroujerdi predicted that a "number of contenders" would emerge to challenge him.

One possible beneficiary is anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who could gain some renewed credibility. "Things could tilt in his favor, not only with the Americans but Iranians as well," Boroujerdi said.